ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Turns back WNW perhaps towards SC. Moving very slowly.




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[WeatherEmperor]

Strengthening hurricane drifting WNW towards Ga/Sc border at 252hrs. Going to stop posting as this is pure fantasy land now.




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[Alyono]

this may be yet another that has to wait until it leaves the MDR to develop

[RL3AO]

Trend from the GFS seems to be faster and weaker. Latest run has an average forward speed of 19 knots through 120 hours.

[Hammy]

this may be yet another that has to wait until it leaves the MDR to develop

Wasn't that basically expected before the season started?

[Alyono]

this may be yet another that has to wait until it leaves the MDR to develop

Wasn't that basically expected before the season started?

yep. Which is why we should not have given much credence to the earlier solution of Hugo marching across the Atlantic

[KWT]

ECM through 144hrs barely has a trace of this system...

Then again it has a poor reflection of it to start wiyh. Vort much stronger than it starts with.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS is more bullish after it passes 45W.No U.S landfall in this run as it recurves as system to the north creates weakness.

[Nimbus]

Looks like a track north of the islands with a late recurve east of the CONUS is the current thinking.
Still really dry for this time of year near Africa so the waves seem to be clinging to the ITCZ for moisture.

[Hurricaneman]

The system that turns this on the GFS is TD9

[Blown Away]

Many ensembles sending a hurricane into the CONUS... The 06z curves up the EC and gets blocked into Canada, so looking like serious ridging in play with this one...

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon all the model essembles I've seen so far, if this develops, this is definitely an east coast threat

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like a track north of the islands with a late recurve east of the CONUS is the current thinking.
Still really dry for this time of year near Africa so the waves seem to be clinging to the ITCZ for moisture.

That's impossible to determine right now. It does appear that TD 9 might play a bigger role though but ridging still wants to take this far to the west.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/770309981400928256

[cycloneye]

12z GFS begins the slow development after it passes 50W.

[cycloneye]

Over Barbuda in Leewards.



Over St Thomas,St John (U.S Virgin Islands)

[Gustywind]

Over Barbuda in Leewards.

Again a Leeward's track near Antigua and especially Barbuda.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the escape route is closing up...Ridge to the north.

[cycloneye]

North of Punta Cana,DR.

[stormlover2013]

yep sure is