EP, 90, 2017050718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 885W, 20, 1008, DB.
EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148363
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical
EP, 90, 2017050718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 885W, 20, 1008, DB.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148363
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Models are bullish.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 16272
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Waters below this are very warm and if the upper levels remain conducive, I don't see how this won't attain major hurricane status.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16199
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 05/07/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 42 53 66 73 78 84 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 42 53 66 73 78 84 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 34 39 44 52 62 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 11 11 11 17 17 22 13 20 21 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 1 4 3 -1 -4 -5 -3 -5 0 4
SHEAR DIR 126 124 101 83 76 68 80 80 88 67 43 49 54
SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 158 158 159 161 161 161 163 163 166 164
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 80 79 80 79 77 75 79 82 83 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 17 20 24
850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 48 56 64 70 72 79 68 68 66 65 97
200 MB DIV 77 93 111 119 146 170 164 180 167 192 199 200 226
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 375 385 412 443 476 561 600 635 666 745 752 578 235
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.4 6.6 6.7 9.2
LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.7 89.0 89.4 89.8 90.8 91.9 92.6 92.9 92.7 91.7 89.8 87.8
STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 5 5 5 2 2 5 7 12 18
HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 9 9 12 19 25 27 35 38 20 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 12. 14. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 22. 33. 46. 54. 58. 64. 67. 72.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 88.5
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.82 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -5.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.91 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.6% 38.8% 36.9% 14.6% 8.8% 51.3% 56.9%
Bayesian: 1.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1%
Consensus: 5.2% 13.6% 12.6% 4.9% 3.0% 17.2% 19.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 05/07/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 42 53 66 73 78 84 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 42 53 66 73 78 84 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 34 39 44 52 62 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 11 11 11 17 17 22 13 20 21 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 1 4 3 -1 -4 -5 -3 -5 0 4
SHEAR DIR 126 124 101 83 76 68 80 80 88 67 43 49 54
SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 158 158 159 161 161 161 163 163 166 164
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 80 79 80 79 77 75 79 82 83 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 17 20 24
850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 48 56 64 70 72 79 68 68 66 65 97
200 MB DIV 77 93 111 119 146 170 164 180 167 192 199 200 226
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 375 385 412 443 476 561 600 635 666 745 752 578 235
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.4 6.6 6.7 9.2
LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.7 89.0 89.4 89.8 90.8 91.9 92.6 92.9 92.7 91.7 89.8 87.8
STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 5 5 5 2 2 5 7 12 18
HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 9 9 12 19 25 27 35 38 20 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 12. 14. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 22. 33. 46. 54. 58. 64. 67. 72.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 88.5
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.82 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -5.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.91 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.6% 38.8% 36.9% 14.6% 8.8% 51.3% 56.9%
Bayesian: 1.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1%
Consensus: 5.2% 13.6% 12.6% 4.9% 3.0% 17.2% 19.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Track too far south, so shear is high end of run.
0 likes
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
more impressed with this today
Regardless of development, this could be a major flooding and mudslide event for Central America
Regardless of development, this could be a major flooding and mudslide event for Central America
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16199
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
18z GFS further west, back into Guatemala. Still likely too far east, favoring what the UKMET has been showing for this and what the ECMWF now shows. Last two parallel GFS runs bring this into Costa Rica and El Salvador.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148363
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148363
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Will it crossover and redevelop in Caribbean?
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/861367999193915393
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/861367999193915393
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
I see that the source I was using for the detailed UKMET text forecast products now has a forbidden error when trying to access it.
I only get Atlantic UKMET text outputs in e-mail
I only get Atlantic UKMET text outputs in e-mail
0 likes
-
Digital-TC-Chaser
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148363
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Location: 7.9°N 89.2°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 N
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 N
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1273
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
I think it depends on exactly where the system ends up popping out into the Atlantic, if it stays over the Yucatan Peninsula for any prolonged period of time, it will likely be a sloppy mess that may not have time to recover, but if it can pass over as a weak TS, it will likely maintain that strength for a little while, as the shear over the system doesn't appear to be terrible.
0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3484
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
It will be interesting if the storm manages to survive Central America and cross over to the Caribbean with a discernible low-level center..that way I believe it will be able to keep its EPAC name. This kind of reminds me of Barbara in 2013, with the remnants giving birth to Andrea.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7404
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
I know this is most likely going to be a hurricane at landfall at the In Mexico or Guatemala but if it comes into the Caribbean could this be a tropical storm for Cuba
0 likes
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
MU dramatically weaker. Has amore reasonable solution of this being a broad slop mess taking forever to get going this time
0 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 16272
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Alyono wrote:MU dramatically weaker. Has amore reasonable solution of this being a broad slop mess taking forever to get going this time
Shear is low, very warm waters. What gives?
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7404
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Alyono wrote:MU dramatically weaker. Has amore reasonable solution of this being a broad slop mess taking forever to get going this time
Seems to want to take the moisture and form a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean
Ps: it does develop a strong tropical storm before landfall in Guatemala
0 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 16272
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16199
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Unlike its ensembles, 0z ECMWF continues to show it only getting blocked for a short while and moving inland as or near major status. In agreement with 12z UKEMT.
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16199
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 05/08/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 57 66 74 80 86 93 92
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 57 66 74 80 86 93 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 40 45 52 61 72 79
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 19 19 24 16 16 15 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 3 5 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -3 5 5
SHEAR DIR 127 98 78 69 76 77 89 91 65 50 63 82 124
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.2 30.4
POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 160 160 161 161 161 163 163 164 159 171
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.8 -52.7 -53.5 -52.4 -53.1 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 9
700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 78 80 80 78 77 83 81 78 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 16 19 23 22
850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 47 49 46 47 51 54 64 64 87 93 90
200 MB DIV 105 114 117 121 136 155 162 165 195 209 213 195 234
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 443 489 527 575 625 665 699 756 779 710 527 361 104
LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.4 7.3 9.8 12.6
LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.7 90.1 90.6 91.1 92.0 92.6 92.7 92.1 91.1 89.7 89.2 90.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 5 7 10 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 18 25 30 37 40 34 15 5 26
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 14. 18. 16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 37. 46. 54. 60. 66. 73. 72.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 89.2
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.89 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.5% 49.7% 35.6% 29.2% 22.6% 47.4% 58.8%
Bayesian: 0.5% 4.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 1.1%
Consensus: 3.7% 18.2% 12.5% 9.9% 7.6% 16.2% 20.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 05/08/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 57 66 74 80 86 93 92
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 57 66 74 80 86 93 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 40 45 52 61 72 79
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 19 19 24 16 16 15 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 3 5 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -3 5 5
SHEAR DIR 127 98 78 69 76 77 89 91 65 50 63 82 124
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.2 30.4
POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 160 160 161 161 161 163 163 164 159 171
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.8 -52.7 -53.5 -52.4 -53.1 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 9
700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 78 80 80 78 77 83 81 78 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 16 19 23 22
850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 47 49 46 47 51 54 64 64 87 93 90
200 MB DIV 105 114 117 121 136 155 162 165 195 209 213 195 234
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 443 489 527 575 625 665 699 756 779 710 527 361 104
LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.4 7.3 9.8 12.6
LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.7 90.1 90.6 91.1 92.0 92.6 92.7 92.1 91.1 89.7 89.2 90.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 5 7 10 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 18 25 30 37 40 34 15 5 26
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 14. 18. 16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 37. 46. 54. 60. 66. 73. 72.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 89.2
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.89 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.5% 49.7% 35.6% 29.2% 22.6% 47.4% 58.8%
Bayesian: 0.5% 4.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 1.1%
Consensus: 3.7% 18.2% 12.5% 9.9% 7.6% 16.2% 20.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 57 guests