ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

need confirmation form the next set

[SFLcane]

starting to think this will never be called a TS as recon is finding southeasterly winds where there should be south westerly winds

Yep the should have gone in earlier. Waste to much time

[Aric Dunn]

need confirmation form the next set

have to wait one more.. lol

[Alyono]

not sufficient for classification

[CrazyC83]

This may never have had a closed LLC though. Nonetheless, impacts from 50 kt winds (latest data supports such) would be the same either way.

[Aric Dunn]

not sufficient for classification

center on radar is still 59.5 west the plane is at 58.2 which would still be showing southerly winds so next set or two.

[weathaguyry]

As of 17:57 UTC Jun 19, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 8.42°N 58.47°W
Bearing: 297° at 266 kt
Altitude: 301 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 10 kt at 160°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

174800 0812N 05800W 9782 00293 0122 +217 //// 228015 017 046 029 01
174830 0813N 05802W 9760 00314 0122 +211 +211 191015 019 049 032 03
174900 0814N 05803W 9782 00297 0121 +225 +223 182009 011 042 023 00
174930 0814N 05804W 9764 00309 0116 +226 +221 185010 012 023 005 00
175000 0815N 05806W 9771 00304 0117 +222 +218 177008 011 026 002 01
175030 0816N 05807W 9772 00304 0120 +216 //// 174006 008 024 002 05
175100 0816N 05809W 9769 00305 0118 +219 +216 162004 005 021 002 00
175130 0817N 05810W 9770 00304 0117 +222 +216 177006 007 021 001 00
175200 0818N 05812W 9772 00302 0116 +217 +217 176006 006 027 004 01
175230 0818N 05813W 9770 00302 0115 +215 //// 174008 008 027 004 01
175300 0819N 05815W 9772 00301 0114 +216 +215 177009 009 027 002 01
175330 0820N 05816W 9770 00302 0113 +221 +215 170010 011 028 002 00
175400 0821N 05818W 9772 00299 0114 +218 +218 169012 013 029 007 00
175430 0821N 05819W 9770 00301 0113 +222 +212 170012 013 027 007 00
175500 0822N 05820W 9772 00299 0113 +218 +218 164011 011 025 001 01
175530 0823N 05822W 9771 00299 0114 +216 //// 159012 012 027 004 01
175600 0823N 05823W 9772 00298 0112 +219 +217 165010 010 024 006 00
175630 0824N 05825W 9772 00296 0112 +221 +216 177010 011 024 001 01
175700 0824N 05826W 9772 00299 //// +220 //// 170010 010 024 001 01
175730 0825N 05828W 9770 00301 //// +224 //// 160008 010 021 000 05

[CrazyC83]

not sufficient for classification

center on radar is still 59.5 west the plane is at 58.2 which would still be showing southerly winds so next set or two.

The radar is shooting almost 10,000 feet up though. The plane is at less than 1,000 feet so that will be much more accurate.

[tolakram]

I think it will close off at some point during this mission, it appears to be undergoing the typical burst that leads to a TD.

[RL3AO]

[Aric Dunn]

not sufficient for classification

center on radar is still 59.5 west the plane is at 58.2 which would still be showing southerly winds so next set or two.

The radar is shooting almost 10,000 feet up though. The plane is at less than 1,000 feet so that will be much more accurate.

yes and the midlevel has clearly been lagging behind any sort of a llc so by that logic the LLC if closed would be closer to 60 west by now..

[CrazyC83]

If the remnants survive, this could still redevelop in the EPAC next week?

[Aric Dunn]

they are too far south I would say. if it is a very compact system then anything to far away from the "center" to the south at this forward motion is going to lead to such odd readings. will wait for them to get near 60 west and see..

right now those light sse winds make sense if the center is closer to 60 west

[Hammy]

How long will the mission run?

[CrazyC83]

The impacts from a trough/wave with 60 mph sustained winds and a tropical storm with such winds will be the same regardless. The name and classification is important in the historical record, but is not as important in real time.

[MississippiWx]

For the first time, 02L looks to have real banding features. I must say it is surprising to me considering how elongated it looked this morning. Looks to be a strengthening TC for now. Hopefully, recon will confirm either way.

[weathaguyry]

As of 18:07 UTC Jun 19, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 8.60°N 58.92°W
Bearing: 270° at 237 kt
Altitude: 297 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 6 kt at 161°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1010.7 mb

175800 0826N 05829W 9766 00305 //// +224 //// 162007 008 021 000 01
175830 0826N 05831W 9771 00301 0112 +225 +219 172007 008 018 001 03
175900 0827N 05832W 9773 00298 0112 +225 +217 182006 007 017 001 03
175930 0828N 05834W 9770 00301 0112 +225 +220 179004 006 017 000 03
180000 0828N 05835W 9769 00302 0113 +224 +220 167003 004 016 000 03
180030 0829N 05837W 9770 00301 0112 +225 +216 191002 003 017 000 03
180100 0828N 05838W 9770 00302 0113 +225 +211 243002 002 010 001 00
180130 0827N 05839W 9772 00301 0113 +225 +214 309001 002 016 000 03
180200 0827N 05841W 9761 00308 0112 +222 +219 110003 005 /// /// 05
180230 0828N 05842W 9772 00299 //// +216 //// 132005 005 014 002 01
180300 0830N 05843W 9772 00299 0113 +225 +214 141004 005 015 001 03
180330 0831N 05843W 9772 00301 0113 +224 +217 175003 004 014 001 05
180400 0832N 05845W 9779 00292 0111 +222 +220 209003 004 021 001 05
180430 0833N 05846W 9768 00301 0111 +224 +218 211005 006 021 001 03
180500 0833N 05848W 9770 00299 0110 +225 +216 217008 009 022 002 00
180530 0834N 05849W 9770 00298 0111 +221 +218 181005 007 031 012 00
180600 0834N 05850W 9768 00299 0111 +216 //// 140005 006 036 012 01
180630 0835N 05852W 9773 00294 0110 +216 //// 125005 006 028 003 01
180700 0836N 05853W 9772 00294 0109 +222 +218 149005 005 026 001 00
180730 0836N 05855W 9769 00297 0107 +225 +218 161006 006 025 001 03

[Hammy]

Some west wind found, but not likely enough to support an upgrade as it's too light.

[CrazyC83]

Closed circulation found at 8.6N 59.2W??

[Aric Dunn]

well they found a little something.. though I think thats more likely the zero point for lack of a better term. where the forward motion and the wind speeds are equal .. they should go a tad more north..