ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Recon logging west winds now.

Hello Cindy. Whole set of west winds.

URNT15 KNHC 201714
AF308 0203A INVEST HDOB 17 20170620
170300 2512N 09023W 9662 00314 //// +225 //// 244023 023 019 000 01
170330 2511N 09021W 9662 00315 //// +226 //// 245022 023 019 001 01
170400 2510N 09020W 9662 00315 //// +230 //// 247022 023 020 001 01
170430 2509N 09018W 9663 00317 //// +230 //// 246021 022 019 000 01
170500 2508N 09017W 9663 00318 //// +230 //// 243021 021 017 000 01
170530 2508N 09015W 9663 00319 //// +230 //// 246021 022 017 000 01
170600 2507N 09014W 9663 00320 //// +229 //// 246020 021 017 001 01
170630 2506N 09012W 9662 00320 //// +228 //// 242019 020 015 001 01
170700 2505N 09011W 9663 00319 //// +229 //// 246020 021 015 001 01
170730 2504N 09009W 9662 00322 //// +228 //// 247020 021 017 000 01
170800 2503N 09008W 9663 00320 //// +230 //// 248020 020 016 000 01
170830 2502N 09006W 9664 00319 //// +230 //// 248019 020 013 001 01
170900 2501N 09004W 9662 00322 //// +233 //// 246019 020 015 001 01
170930 2500N 09003W 9662 00322 //// +232 //// 244019 019 015 001 01
171000 2459N 09001W 9662 00322 //// +230 //// 243019 019 017 001 01
171030 2458N 09000W 9663 00322 //// +229 //// 238020 021 017 001 01
171100 2458N 08958W 9662 00325 //// +229 //// 232021 021 016 001 01
171130 2457N 08957W 9663 00324 //// +225 //// 234021 021 018 000 01
171200 2456N 08956W 9662 00325 //// +225 //// 232021 022 017 001 01
171230 2455N 08954W 9663 00324 //// +227 //// 233022 023 019 000 01
$$

[weathaguyry]

Recon logging west winds now.

Does this mean it can potentially be upgraded in the near future?

[weathaguyry]

As of 17:12 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 24.92°N 89.90°W
Bearing: 117° at 249 kt
Altitude: 324 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 23 kt at 233°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

170300 2512N 09023W 9662 00314 //// +225 //// 244023 023 019 000 01
170330 2511N 09021W 9662 00315 //// +226 //// 245022 023 019 001 01
170400 2510N 09020W 9662 00315 //// +230 //// 247022 023 020 001 01
170430 2509N 09018W 9663 00317 //// +230 //// 246021 022 019 000 01
170500 2508N 09017W 9663 00318 //// +230 //// 243021 021 017 000 01
170530 2508N 09015W 9663 00319 //// +230 //// 246021 022 017 000 01
170600 2507N 09014W 9663 00320 //// +229 //// 246020 021 017 001 01
170630 2506N 09012W 9662 00320 //// +228 //// 242019 020 015 001 01
170700 2505N 09011W 9663 00319 //// +229 //// 246020 021 015 001 01
170730 2504N 09009W 9662 00322 //// +228 //// 247020 021 017 000 01
170800 2503N 09008W 9663 00320 //// +230 //// 248020 020 016 000 01
170830 2502N 09006W 9664 00319 //// +230 //// 248019 020 013 001 01
170900 2501N 09004W 9662 00322 //// +233 //// 246019 020 015 001 01
170930 2500N 09003W 9662 00322 //// +232 //// 244019 019 015 001 01
171000 2459N 09001W 9662 00322 //// +230 //// 243019 019 017 001 01
171030 2458N 09000W 9663 00322 //// +229 //// 238020 021 017 001 01
171100 2458N 08958W 9662 00325 //// +229 //// 232021 021 016 001 01
171130 2457N 08957W 9663 00324 //// +225 //// 234021 021 018 000 01
171200 2456N 08956W 9662 00325 //// +225 //// 232021 022 017 001 01
171230 2455N 08954W 9663 00324 //// +227 //// 233022 023 019 000 01

[HurricaneBrain]

Yes.

Recon logging west winds now.

Does this mean it can potentially be upgraded in the near future?

[davidiowx]

Recon logging west winds now.

Does this mean it can potentially be upgraded in the near future?

Yes, that is correct.

[Alyono]

there were west winds yesterday

depends upon the mood of a certain person is what will determine if this is upgraded

[Hurricaneman]

Probably at 2 for the upgrade

[tarheelprogrammer]

there were west winds yesterday

depends upon the mood of a certain person is what will determine if this is upgraded

West winds are all you need right?

[weathaguyry]

Probably at 2 for the upgrade

We'd have Bret and Cindy at the same time!!!

[ronyan]

12z GEFS takes this in just east of Galveston Bay, IMO Galveston is the target for the center of Cindy.

[weathaguyry]

As of 17:22 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 24.83°N 89.63°W
Bearing: 315° at 162 kt
Altitude: 324 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 24 kt at 196°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

171300 2454N 08953W 9664 00324 0029 +230 +111 231023 023 019 000 00
171330 2453N 08951W 9662 00325 0031 +227 -091 232023 023 019 000 00
171400 2452N 08950W 9664 00324 0032 +230 -175 227024 024 019 001 00
171430 2451N 08948W 9660 00328 0032 +230 -154 228024 025 019 001 00
171500 2450N 08947W 9662 00325 0032 +233 -167 222025 026 019 000 00
171530 2450N 08945W 9662 00326 0032 +231 -175 222024 025 018 001 00
171600 2449N 08944W 9658 00332 0034 +230 -294 217024 026 019 001 00
171630 2448N 08942W 9658 00332 0034 +231 -310 210025 026 019 001 00
171700 2447N 08941W 9663 00328 0035 +232 -309 210025 026 020 001 00
171730 2446N 08940W 9668 00324 0036 +231 -311 204026 026 020 001 00
171800 2445N 08938W 9659 00332 0036 +231 -310 201026 026 021 001 00
171830 2444N 08937W 9662 00330 0036 +232 -307 209026 028 023 001 00
171900 2444N 08935W 9657 00336 0038 +223 -041 209028 030 024 002 00
171930 2443N 08934W 9671 00324 //// +230 //// 201027 028 023 002 05
172000 2443N 08932W 9660 00331 //// +233 //// 197028 028 /// /// 05
172030 2443N 08932W 9660 00331 //// +233 //// 194026 027 013 004 01
172100 2443N 08932W 9660 00331 //// +235 //// 190027 027 023 000 01
172130 2447N 08936W 9662 00330 //// +228 //// 191026 028 022 002 01
172200 2449N 08937W 9660 00330 //// +232 //// 195025 027 023 002 01
172230 2450N 08938W 9668 00324 //// +234 //// 196023 024 022 001 05

[Alyono]

there were west winds yesterday

depends upon the mood of a certain person is what will determine if this is upgraded

West winds are all you need right?

no no no

There is also a convective organization requirement. Furthermore, you need winds in all 360 degrees around the center. West winds do not mean a closed low by themselves

In this case, the low is closed, but a stretched argument can be made that we do not have convective organization

[tarheelprogrammer]

there were west winds yesterday

depends upon the mood of a certain person is what will determine if this is upgraded

West winds are all you need right?

no no no

There is also a convective organization requirement. Furthermore, you need winds in all 360 degrees around the center. West winds do not mean a closed low by themselves

In this case, the low is closed, but a stretched argument can be made that we do not have convective organization

If it looks like a TC, and it acts like a TC........it is not a TC then? Just an opinion I guess, and they are the experts. However, it seems like a TC to a lot of people, and has for awhile now.

[Alyono]

recon gave a vortex message last night

This has had the circulation requirement for more than 18 hours

[OntarioEggplant]

West winds are all you need right?

no no no

There is also a convective organization requirement. Furthermore, you need winds in all 360 degrees around the center. West winds do not mean a closed low by themselves

In this case, the low is closed, but a stretched argument can be made that we do not have convective organization

If it looks like a TC, and it acts like a TC........it is not a TC then? Just an opinion I guess, and they are the experts. However, it seems like a TC to a lot of people, and has for awhile now.

Agreed. The NHC is being very inconsistent which damages their reputation with the general public.

[tatertawt24]

We haven't been terribly strict with naming the storms the past few years (I remember super-sheared Colin barely making it last year) so I would go ahead and upgrade it.

[Hurricane_Apu]

there were west winds yesterday

depends upon the mood of a certain person is what will determine if this is upgraded

The NHC is the best at what they do, by a wide margin, but their obsession with hair splitting and fine distinctions can be tiresome. It's only natural that they discuss and argue endlessly over the minutiae of tropical weather in private. That's what scientists do. But it's a problem when that spills over into their communication with the public, the "No Hurricane Warning for Sandy Because Reasons" fiasco being one of the more obvious examples. The "Potential Tropical Cyclone" classification is confusing to the public and really adds nothing to the discussion other than enabling their love of counting angels on pinheads. This thing has a closed circulation, it's producing sustained tropical force winds, and it's impact on the public if it were making landfall right now would be indistinguishable from that of a "real" tropical storm.

Again, this is no criticism of their actual forecasting skill, which is second to none, the bitching of Accuweather and others aside.

[cycloneye]

CINDY!!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...2

[galaxy401]

Prepare for a big soak from this storm! Quite an active start to this season. Very large system.

[weathaguyry]

As of 17:32 UTC Jun 20, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 25.23°N 90.02°W
Bearing: 315° at 162 kt
Altitude: 285 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 18 kt at 224°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

172300 2451N 08939W 9683 00311 //// +235 //// 196023 024 023 000 01
172330 2452N 08940W 9692 00302 //// +253 //// 202024 025 019 002 01
172400 2453N 08942W 9699 00293 0029 +391 //// 199024 025 022 001 01
172430 2455N 08943W 9711 00285 //// +231 //// 216019 023 023 001 01
172500 2456N 08944W 9696 00295 //// +235 //// 212022 022 020 000 01
172530 2457N 08945W 9700 00291 //// +235 //// 213022 023 019 000 01
172600 2458N 08946W 9700 00291 //// +234 //// 213021 021 019 000 01
172630 2459N 08947W 9699 00292 //// +230 //// 215019 020 019 001 01
172700 2501N 08949W 9698 00292 //// +230 //// 216018 019 019 000 01
172730 2502N 08950W 9699 00290 //// +230 //// 215019 019 020 000 01
172800 2503N 08951W 9697 00291 //// +230 //// 214019 020 019 001 01
172830 2504N 08952W 9699 00289 //// +230 //// 212019 020 018 001 01
172900 2505N 08953W 9699 00289 //// +233 //// 215020 021 018 001 01
172930 2507N 08954W 9699 00287 //// +235 //// 217020 020 017 000 01
173000 2508N 08956W 9698 00287 //// +235 //// 217019 019 018 000 01
173030 2509N 08957W 9699 00286 //// +235 //// 214018 019 018 000 01
173100 2510N 08958W 9699 00285 //// +234 //// 218017 018 018 000 01
173130 2511N 08959W 9699 00284 //// +230 //// 220018 019 018 001 01
173200 2513N 09000W 9699 00284 //// +231 //// 222018 018 018 000 01
173230 2514N 09001W 9698 00285 //// +233 //// 224018 018 019 000 01