ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[southerngale]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 212345
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 93.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 93.3 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with a turn toward
the northeast expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Cindy will move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern
Louisiana early Thursday, then move near or over extreme eastern
Texas, western and northern Louisiana, and southeastern Arkansas
Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with
weakening expected thereafter. An elevated oil platform located
southwest of the center recently reported a wind gust of 75 mph.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations
from oil rigs near the center is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday night. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area this evening
through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight from the far
western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[HurricaneBrain]

Looks like RECON is delayed as weather in Biloxi is affecting takeoff.

[southerngale]

Here in Lumberton North of Beaumont, Tx we have light rain and no wind. Guess this is the start of a long night.

It should be coming soon. Just outside Beaumont, I'm getting a lot of rain and it's quite windy, but nothing to write home about. I'm outside on the patio and I had to get a jacket lol

[sphelps8681]

One of our local mets says it will make landfall at Johnsons Bayou, La. Which is about 60 mi from where I am at.

[sphelps8681]

HWRF looks to have shifted more west.

[southerngale]

One of our local mets says it will make landfall at Johnsons Bayou, La. Which is about 60 mi from where I am at.

It depends on when it makes the turn, but regardless, we're getting a lot of rain.

http://www.directupload.net
http://fs5.directupload.net/images/170622/bfeclni7.png

[tailgater]

Seems to be back to one center ATM, it may wind up a little bit before landfall. I'd like to thank Texas and Mexico for all this dry air.

[wkwally]

Light rain South Houston

[sphelps8681]

One of our local mets says it will make landfall at Johnsons Bayou, La. Which is about 60 mi from where I am at.

It depends on when it makes the turn, but regardless, we're getting a lot of rain.

I know it is such a fine line between that location and ours.

[Steve]

Here in Lumberton North of Beaumont, Tx we have light rain and no wind. Guess this is the start of a long night.

Yeah. It looks like a really strong band is about to hit your area. That's the 2+" and hour stuff. We have a couple day total of about 5" here, but we really didn't get anything with remotely that rainfall rate.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Also, it's beautiful here tonight. Breezy, partly cloudy and mild - we're lucky we got in that gap.

[Steve]

Seems to be back to one center ATM, it may wind up a little bit before landfall. I'd like to thank Texas and Mexico for all this dry air.

Agreed. I think it's at that time of night where tops are starting to warm. But since it's at least several hours from shore, there's always a chance of landfall during an intensifying phase. Luckily nothing catastrophic is going to come out of Cindy. But so far it's been a cool storm to track and be in.

[sphelps8681]

Here in Lumberton North of Beaumont, Tx we have light rain and no wind. Guess this is the start of a long night.

Yeah. It looks like a really strong band is about to hit your area. That's the 2+" and hour stuff. We have a couple day total of about 5" here, but we really didn't get anything with remotely that rainfall rate.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Also, it's beautiful here tonight. Breezy, partly cloudy and mild - we're lucky we got in that gap.

I saw the same band about to happen. It's like the silence before the storm. Not a lot of anything right now.

[sphelps8681]

Had to post this. Way to funny!!

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/ ... e=59E63AFD

No disrespect to anyone in bad situation but sometimes during those times you need to laugh a little.

[Aric Dunn]

definitely some eastward drifting this past few hours. .

[djmikey]

Heavy band now over beaumont. Oddly theres a bunch of lightning with it. You don't usually see that with a tropical system. Pouring buckets! Winds now at a good sustained 20 or so gusting to 30 with this band. Lots more to come for us in Beaumont.

[sphelps8681]

Rain really coming down now. Trees they ain't a blowing.

[Jagno]

One of our local mets says it will make landfall at Johnsons Bayou, La. Which is about 60 mi from where I am at.

This is right out my front door. I have to say that so far we've only had one heavy band of rain outside of cooler temps and a nice breeze. I'm okay with this and pray it continues.

[Jagno]

Had to post this. Way to funny!!

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/ ... e=59E63AFD

No disrespect to anyone in bad situation but sometimes during those times you need to laugh a little.

It is funny, but everywhere you went yesterday afternoon and even throughout the morning mowers were going. Not for Jim Cantore but so that you can see what's slithering around in flood waters.................and the fact that it won't be dry enough again for a few weeks to mow again.

[southerngale]

Heavy band now over beaumont. Oddly theres a bunch of lightning with it. You don't usually see that with a tropical system. Pouring buckets! Winds now at a good sustained 20 or so gusting to 30 with this band. Lots more to come for us in Beaumont.

I've been surprised by the thunder and lightning and it's really coming down now!
I'm also surprised that I had to change out of my shorts into sweatpants and put on a jacket just to sit outside and watch it all.

[sphelps8681]

High Island

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/ ... e=59E63AFD

This is not what I wanted to post.