EPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#121 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:52 am

Dang!

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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#122 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:56 am

By the looks of it she should be a major by noon. I don't know if the advisory will reflect it but she does look it while her eye continues to warm

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2017 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 17:17:53 N Lon : 106:04:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 965.3mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.7 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -13.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#123 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:00 am

Indeed, I can't see any reason to stay at category 1 for the upcoming advisory, as even the ADT numbers are soaring to category 2 now.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#124 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:15 am

Dora is in range of GOES 16 rapid refresh view.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband02.html
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#125 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:29 am

Ntxw wrote:By the looks of it she should be a major by noon. I don't know if the advisory will reflect it but she does look it while her eye continues to warm

Image




Wow. Eye is contracting too.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#126 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:36 am

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dora has continued to rapidly intensify with a 20-nmi-diameter,
cloud-filled eye now evident in visible satellite imagery. The
upper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive and continues
to expand in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates are a
consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T4.7/82 kt from CIMSS
ADT, which supports an initial intensity of 75 kt. Dora could be a
little stronger, but recent infrared imagery indicates that the
inner-core convection has eroded significantly since the 1200 UTC
fixes, so the initial intensity will remain on the low end of
estimates for this advisory.

Dora has been holding on a steady west-northwestward course or
295/11 kt for the past 12 hours. A strong deep-layer subtropical
ridge entrenched to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep
Dora moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 3
days or so. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to weaken
significantly and become a more vertically shallow system, steered
westward by the low-level trade wind flow until Dora dissipates by
day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies a little south of the
consensus track model TVCE out of respect for the more southerly
ECMWF solution.

Dora has about another 12 hours or so to strengthen. However, the
rapid intensification event that the hurricane has undergone for the
past 30 hours has likely ended. The aforementioned erosion of the
inner-core convection is possibly due to the entrainment of cooler
and more stable air into the western semicircle now that Dora is
beginning to encroach upon 26-deg C SSTs. The vertical wind
shear is expected to remain low at less than 5 kt and the favorable
upper-level outflow pattern is forecast to persist for the next few
days as well. The only hindering factor will be the decreasing
thermodynamics due to the hurricane moving over sub-26C SSTs within
12-18 hours. Steady weakening should begin by 24 h, but the rate of
the weakening trend should be lessened due to proximity to warmer
water just south of the path of Dora and the aforementioned
favorable dynamic conditions. The NHC official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus
model IVCN.

Although the center of Dora is forecast to remain well offshore, the
outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief locally heavy rainfall
to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.6N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.1N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND
48H 28/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/1200Z 20.4N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#127 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:41 am

That's quite conservative given her presentation at the moment. ADT has 97kts currently with a distinct clearing eye
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#128 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:45 am

It's true that the convection has eroded since this morning but personally I highly doubt the storm is as weak as 75 knots.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#129 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:49 am

75kts..? Too low.

It has about 8-10 hrs left to make a run at MH status thankfully. Wouldn't count it out yet.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#130 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:50 am

Ntxw wrote:That's quite conservative given her presentation at the moment. ADT has 97kts currently with a distinct clearing eye


Maybe a special advisory soon.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#131 Postby zeehag » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:09 am

i was wondering if dora would r i in ri-ville, there, between manzanillo and cabo corrientes--seems that seems to be a zone for intensification.
during my tenure in barra de navidad, i could hear the storms intensifying. that was impressive.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#132 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:15 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2017 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 17:21:58 N Lon : 106:15:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.3mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -5.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#133 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:32 am

:uarrow: That's major hurricane strength :eek:
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#134 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:55 am

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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#135 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:26 am

Eye is even clearer now but the cloudtops are getting warmer. Hmmm...

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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#136 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:19 pm

:uarrow: Yeah tops have warmed so she is probably done intensifying for the time being. Lets see if we can get major by next update.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#137 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:41 pm

Latest
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#138 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:42 pm

@TropicalTidbits
#Dora has just in the last hour developed one of the mysterious "cloud cliffs" in the NW quad. Hard to see, but unmistakable.


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/879385284777054208


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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#139 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:43 pm

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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#140 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Cloud tops warming already. If we didnt have below average SST's near the area...
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