EPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel,
Mexico, are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
low moves west-northwestward at 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Heavy rains are possible in the Mexican states of Oaxaca
and Guerrero during the next couple of days, and interests along the
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Looks ready to go.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT: 90%-90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
a few hundred miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has continued to
become better organized since yesterday. Upper-level winds are
gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later today or on Sunday while the low
moves west-northwestward at 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Heavy rains are possible in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero during the next couple of days, and interests along the
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Ntxw]

Looks healthy and poised to be Dora

[cycloneye]

SAB at 1.5. 24/1145 UTC 12.7N 98.3W T1.5/1.5 93E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued:

WTPN21 PHNC 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 96.2W TO 15.0N 99.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 96.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.4N 96.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1600 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL
AND BROAD CIRCULATION WITH INCREASING CONVECTION. A 240107Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER THE CENTER AND BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A 231628Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SOME 20
KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST, ALONG THE COAST, AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WHILE REMAINING SMALL IN SIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250300Z.//

[Kingarabian]

You would think they would upgrade with a 1.5 from SAB + a microwave presentation like this:

[Ntxw]

Full visible of the day



RGB loop

[RL3AO]

CSU has launched a new GOES-16 and Himawari-8 viewer.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/

[RL3AO]

[Kingarabian]

Wow great shots! Wish we had it for Patricia.

[cycloneye]

Why are they waiting to classify?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS stronger.

[gfsperpendicular]

where does it go after that?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: where does it go after that?

Moves westnorthwest while it weakens.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: where does it go after that?

Through 90hrs its still moving W-NW just north of Socorro Island

[gfsperpendicular]

Thanks

[northjaxpro]

Looks very impressive currently. A well organized system.

[Yellow Evan]

Been classifiable for quite some time; I wonder what the NHC is waiting on here

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to become better organized, and a
tropical depression appears to be forming. If this development trend
continues, then advisories will be initiated later this afternoon
or evening. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 mph
parallel to the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days,
bringing heavy rains to the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart