ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#421 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:48 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Which one of you cheeseheads broke the map agaih. :lol: :D

I kid of course, lol.


My bad..... coffee all over the keyboard LOL
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#422 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:17 pm

Looking a recon, I think NHC should kill it at 11pm.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#423 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:26 pm

RL3AO wrote:Looking a recon, I think NHC should kill it at 11pm.


the last hour and half it degraded even more.. good old eastern carrib graveyard lol
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#424 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:29 pm

very odd though. recon has not matched granada surface obs the last hour. went from NNW to SSE .. recon has nothing like that.. very odd
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#425 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:33 pm

I've noticed often times smaller systems will weaken or dissipate as then enter the Caribbean--possibly the terrain having some sort of impact.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm

#426 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:37 pm

Looks like the circulation passed Grenada a few hours earlier than the HWRF model predicted.
At least it wasn't a dangerous storm.
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Re: ATL: DON - Remnants

#427 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:50 pm

Is over.

Remnants Of Don Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft made several passes
through the system this evening and was only able to find a sharp
wind shift--but no winds with a westerly component. Pressures have
also risen, and it appears that Don no longer has a center of
circulation. Therefore, Don is being declared an open wave, and
this is the last advisory on this system. Based on the aircraft
data, the wave is still producing maximum winds of 35 kt west of
the Windward Islands over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea.

The wave is moving westward at about 22 kt, and it should continue
moving quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next
couple of days. Due to the system's fast motion, as well as
unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Caribbean Sea,
regeneration into a tropical cyclone is not expected at this time.
However, the wave is expected to continue producing gales through
early Wednesday, and then winds just below gale force for the next
couple of days.

This is the last advisory on Don, and additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 11.9N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DON
12H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

#428 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:57 am

Convection making a comeback and it's staying along the coast away from the worst of the shear. ABC islands may get some T.S. force gust. Image
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Re: ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

#429 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:31 am

Cant count it out until its inland and dead.
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Re: ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

#430 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:36 am

:uarrow: I agree. Just as with what 96L is doing currently, Don (or his remnants) has really flared convection very much this early morning, so much so that appearance-wise, this is the best Don has been its entire life span.
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Re: ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

#431 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:19 am

The shear caused by the westerlies off the base of the tutt for the next 84 hours appears to be life ending for this system. If it has any chance at all of avoiding the shear to the south, it will have to be so close to the south American coast it will have other problems like the south American heat low.

I seriously doubt this has much of a chance.

36 hour 200 mb
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=456

48 hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=401

60 hr
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 1900&fh=60
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