ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Three MDR tropical cyclones by July 17th is remarkable.

If it weren't for that stingy Caribbean shear. Could've been a historic June and July for the Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

Atlantic MDR does it again with Don, similar to Bret

Should make the ACE for the Atlantic basin average again if it can last longer than 34 hours.

It will probably be less than 2 units. Not so much the ACE but where it formed is noteworthy similar to TS Bret

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172050
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 37 20170717
204000 1155N 05206W 9772 00323 0139 +229 +217 095017 017 015 000 00
204030 1155N 05208W 9769 00325 0139 +228 +220 093017 017 015 000 00
204100 1155N 05210W 9773 00322 0138 +230 +217 092018 019 016 000 00
204130 1155N 05212W 9770 00324 0138 +230 +218 093018 019 016 000 00
204200 1155N 05213W 9770 00324 0138 +229 +220 091018 019 017 000 03
204230 1155N 05215W 9772 00322 0137 +230 +219 089019 019 017 000 00
204300 1155N 05217W 9770 00323 0137 +230 +218 092019 020 018 001 00
204330 1155N 05218W 9770 00323 0137 +230 +219 089019 020 017 001 00
204400 1155N 05220W 9770 00324 0136 +230 +219 087020 021 019 001 00
204430 1155N 05222W 9769 00322 0136 +230 +218 084020 021 020 001 03
204500 1155N 05224W 9770 00322 0136 +230 +221 082020 021 019 000 00
204530 1155N 05225W 9770 00322 0136 +230 +220 083021 022 019 000 00
204600 1155N 05227W 9772 00320 0136 +230 +222 083020 021 017 001 00
204630 1155N 05229W 9770 00322 0135 +230 +224 081020 020 018 000 00
204700 1155N 05231W 9772 00320 0135 +230 +224 080020 020 018 001 03
204730 1155N 05232W 9773 00318 0135 +230 +223 077021 021 019 001 00
204800 1155N 05234W 9770 00323 0136 +230 +223 079020 021 019 001 03
204830 1154N 05235W 9761 00329 0135 +230 +223 075018 019 017 000 00
204900 1152N 05235W 9774 00317 0135 +230 +224 079018 019 017 001 03
204930 1151N 05235W 9770 00321 0135 +230 +220 081019 020 018 000 00
$$
;

[Ntxw]

Now would having 2 Tropical Storms and 1 Tropical Depression in the Tropical Atlantic by July 17th be a very good indication of an active season?

Not necessarily, there have been hurricanes before Aug. But future indications might be implied this area is the place to watch going forward.

[JPmia]

Three MDR tropical cyclones by July 17th is remarkable.

If it weren't for that stingy Caribbean shear. Could've been a historic June and July for the Atlantic.

Any indication that this shear will lessen in the coming weeks? If it does, then watch out.

[wxman57]

Three MDR tropical cyclones by July 17th is remarkable.

Bret, Don, and ?

[RL3AO]

Three MDR tropical cyclones by July 17th is remarkable.

Bret, Don, and ?

TD Four. I said tropcial cyclones.

[weathaguyry]

Three MDR tropical cyclones by July 17th is remarkable.

Bret, Don, and ?

TD4

[Kingarabian]

Three MDR tropical cyclones by July 17th is remarkable.

If it weren't for that stingy Caribbean shear. Could've been a historic June and July for the Atlantic.

Any indication that this shear will lessen in the coming weeks? If it does, then watch out.

Maybe if ENSO flips to neutral.

[TheStormExpert]

If it weren't for that stingy Caribbean shear. Could've been a historic June and July for the Atlantic.

Any indication that this shear will lessen in the coming weeks? If it does, then watch out.

Maybe if ENSO flips to neutral.

I thought the ENSO was neutral?

[Kingarabian]

Any indication that this shear will lessen in the coming weeks? If it does, then watch out.

Maybe if ENSO flips to neutral.

I thought the ENSO was neutral?

Its been at weak El Nino levels since May.

[RL3AO]

I thought the ENSO was neutral?

It is. If anything, the atmosphere leans more towards La Nina. But people love to spend too much time with SST anomalies.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172100
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 38 20170717
205000 1149N 05235W 9770 00321 0135 +230 +217 083020 020 018 000 00
205030 1148N 05235W 9771 00319 0134 +230 +221 084020 020 018 001 00
205100 1146N 05235W 9770 00320 0133 +230 +223 086019 019 018 001 00
205130 1145N 05235W 9769 00321 0133 +229 +216 084020 021 019 000 00
205200 1143N 05235W 9770 00320 0133 +229 +218 083020 020 018 000 00
205230 1141N 05235W 9770 00319 0133 +227 +220 081019 020 018 001 03
205300 1141N 05235W 9770 00319 0132 +230 +216 080020 021 019 000 00
205330 1138N 05235W 9771 00318 0132 +228 +217 081020 021 018 000 00
205400 1137N 05235W 9769 00318 0131 +226 +221 081020 021 020 000 00
205430 1135N 05235W 9767 00321 //// +225 //// 084020 020 019 001 01
205500 1134N 05235W 9772 00316 0131 +225 +222 087021 022 020 000 01
205530 1132N 05235W 9772 00316 0130 +224 +221 094023 025 022 002 01
205600 1131N 05235W 9772 00313 0128 +224 +215 091024 025 022 001 00
205630 1129N 05235W 9772 00313 0127 +226 +217 092026 027 021 000 00
205700 1128N 05235W 9768 00314 0125 +226 +220 089028 029 023 000 00
205730 1126N 05235W 9774 00308 0125 +225 +223 091030 031 028 000 05
205800 1125N 05235W 9772 00308 0122 +227 +224 094029 030 028 000 01
205830 1123N 05235W 9767 00311 0120 +229 +226 103028 030 028 000 01
205900 1122N 05235W 9773 00303 0115 +245 +225 114030 030 029 002 00
205930 1120N 05236W 9770 00302 0111 +249 +218 120029 030 029 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Social media is going nuts over the name and getting political.

It is likely to have a short life though and may already be at or near peak intensity.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say wind shear in the Caribbean will calm down once the East Pacific does. Also must we forget it already is below normal for this time of year.

[Kingarabian]

I thought the ENSO was neutral?

It is. If anything, the atmosphere leans more towards La Nina. But people love to spend too much time with SST anomalies.

What's the official atmosphere barometer other than the SOI? You look at the warmth in the eastern pacific and you will get a better picture if there will be subsidence(walker cell placement) in the GOM and increased shear. You also look at the background state of the pacific and its currently very warm. I'm not sure if warm (SST anomalies) Pacific years correlate with active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

[WeatherEmperor]

If one is to believe the graphic above then shear levels in the Caribbean since the beginning of June have spent more time below normal as opposed to above normal.

As of today, shear levels are ever so slightly below normal so when TS Don gets shredded apart in the Carib in a few days or so...it wont be because of ENSO...it will be due to climatology.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172110
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 39 20170717
210000 1119N 05236W 9779 00292 0109 +249 +215 128031 033 032 000 00
210030 1118N 05237W 9769 00300 0107 +242 +219 132033 034 032 000 03
210100 1116N 05238W 9772 00294 0104 +242 +219 133034 034 033 000 03
210130 1115N 05238W 9758 00304 0102 +246 +215 135033 034 /// /// 03
210200 1115N 05237W 9773 00291 0103 +240 +215 148035 038 035 000 00
210230 1114N 05236W 9766 00302 0106 +236 +219 168043 045 041 000 03
210300 1114N 05235W 9771 00300 0109 +241 +209 176040 045 044 000 03
210330 1113N 05233W 9578 00465 0105 +235 +190 164035 038 038 000 03
210400 1112N 05232W 9276 00758 0113 +217 +186 150030 034 /// /// 03
210430 1111N 05232W 8981 01043 0118 +206 +177 142027 028 /// /// 03
210500 1110N 05233W 8686 01332 0116 +191 +168 135023 026 /// /// 03
210530 1109N 05234W 8441 01580 0116 +182 +150 129023 026 037 002 00
210600 1107N 05235W 8431 01595 0121 +177 +148 138021 026 037 003 00
210630 1106N 05236W 8433 01591 0124 +170 +153 159021 024 036 002 03
210700 1105N 05238W 8425 01600 0125 +169 +151 163024 025 035 000 00
210730 1105N 05239W 8437 01587 0123 +172 +152 175022 025 036 001 03
210800 1104N 05241W 8428 01594 0129 +165 +159 190020 023 038 004 03
210830 1104N 05242W 8417 01604 0143 +157 //// 182017 021 046 014 05
210900 1105N 05244W 8442 01578 0147 +160 +160 187022 026 049 048 00
210930 1105N 05246W 8427 01593 0145 +162 +162 202019 020 061 052 00
$$
;

1. 45 flight level/44 smrf but I believe the 03 is the flight level in error.
2. High rain rates with the smrf of 49 and 61 knots

[leanne_uk]

Could anyone let me know what the outlook is for Grenada.... I believe it's now under a storm warning but just need a bit more info as my mother in law is in the middle of repair works on the house. Definately not what you need when the house ain't right.
Thanks in advance.

[gatorcane]

Seems like the ECMWF essentially missed this system.