ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF is showing an initial WNW motion gaining a little latitude for the first 24 hours pressure down to 1006 mb above 12N. Crossing Grenada at 992 round about midnight tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

big convective burst.. recon is showing the center reforming wsw a little..

[Sciencerocks]

hwrf para takes it to 1005 mb by 24 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=228

At the same time the Hmon takes it to 987mb. I don't trust it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[Sciencerocks]

Hwrf para takes it down to 1002mb by 30 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=114

Op-Hwrf the same http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

36hr for op http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=114

1000 mb by 33 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 1718&fh=33

Hwrf parents at 39 hours shows 986 mb
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=228

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172250
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 49 20170717
224000 1053N 05341W 8430 01600 0143 +156 +131 023013 014 022 004 00
224030 1053N 05343W 8430 01600 0145 +152 +140 019010 012 022 004 00
224100 1053N 05345W 8429 01604 0149 +148 +140 027009 010 024 006 03
224130 1053N 05347W 8428 01606 0151 +145 +141 038010 010 022 009 00
224200 1053N 05348W 8430 01602 0150 +150 +139 042011 012 023 010 00
224230 1053N 05350W 8432 01604 0151 +150 +140 032012 012 024 010 00
224300 1053N 05352W 8428 01608 0151 +150 +143 028012 012 021 008 00
224330 1053N 05353W 8430 01606 0150 +152 +141 031013 013 020 005 00
224400 1054N 05355W 8430 01607 0150 +153 +142 032013 014 020 003 00
224430 1054N 05357W 8429 01608 0151 +153 +146 033015 015 018 003 03
224500 1053N 05358W 8426 01612 0148 +158 +144 032014 015 /// /// 03
224530 1051N 05358W 8432 01604 0145 +160 +144 032013 013 016 003 00
224600 1050N 05358W 8429 01607 0146 +156 +152 024011 012 020 002 00
224630 1048N 05357W 8433 01605 //// +156 //// 023011 011 018 002 01
224700 1047N 05357W 8429 01606 0144 +158 +155 012010 011 021 001 01
224730 1045N 05356W 8433 01604 0145 +160 +149 007009 010 017 001 03
224800 1043N 05356W 8429 01606 0144 +160 +145 356008 009 014 001 00
224830 1042N 05355W 8429 01604 0144 +160 +147 346008 009 014 001 03
224900 1041N 05354W 8425 01613 0145 +160 +143 353007 008 /// /// 03
224930 1041N 05353W 8436 01598 0142 +160 +149 356007 007 014 001 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

big convective burst.. recon is showing the center reforming wsw a little..

in storm area to sw of burst area?

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it's struggling with its fast movement. Nice convective burst the last hour.

[Weather150]

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172300
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 50 20170717
225000 1042N 05352W 8429 01604 0142 +158 +149 007008 008 013 001 03
225030 1043N 05350W 8431 01601 0142 +159 +149 018009 009 016 001 00
225100 1044N 05349W 8429 01605 0145 +155 +152 015009 009 015 003 00
225130 1045N 05348W 8430 01603 0145 +153 +151 016008 008 017 004 00
225200 1046N 05347W 8430 01603 0146 +153 +142 026007 008 020 005 00
225230 1047N 05345W 8430 01603 0143 +158 +132 024007 008 021 005 00
225300 1048N 05344W 8429 01603 0145 +153 +134 020007 008 022 007 00
225330 1049N 05343W 8430 01600 0149 +146 +136 022008 008 021 009 00
225400 1050N 05342W 8430 01598 0144 +152 +132 018010 012 022 009 00
225430 1051N 05340W 8429 01598 0140 +155 +131 013012 013 023 006 00
225500 1053N 05339W 8429 01601 0144 +152 +135 010011 012 022 006 00
225530 1054N 05338W 8431 01602 0147 +150 +139 004010 011 021 006 00
225600 1055N 05337W 8429 01603 0148 +149 +143 001009 010 022 006 00
225630 1056N 05336W 8430 01602 0148 +149 +142 002011 012 022 004 00
225700 1057N 05335W 8429 01605 0148 +150 +142 004013 013 022 004 00
225730 1057N 05335W 8429 01605 0145 +153 +146 012014 014 020 002 00
225800 1059N 05333W 8428 01606 0142 +158 +142 013015 016 020 002 00
225830 1100N 05332W 8429 01606 0141 +161 +144 008015 016 020 002 00
225900 1101N 05331W 8429 01604 0142 +157 +148 357014 015 021 002 00
225930 1102N 05329W 8430 01603 0141 +160 +146 359012 013 024 003 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

Hwrf para takes it down to 1002mb by 30 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=114

Op-Hwrf the same http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

36hr for op http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=114

1000 mb by 33 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 1718&fh=33

Hwrf parents at 39 hours shows 986 mb
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=228

we need wait until all runs are finish but look their doing bad job with shear

[Aric Dunn]

big convective burst.. recon is showing the center reforming wsw a little..

in storm area to sw of burst area?

the convection has pulled ont he center and is reorganizing closer to the convection. though the convection needs to maintain

[floridasun78]

look islands could get stormy weather by wed good gust wind alot rain hope their ready

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172310
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 51 20170717
230000 1104N 05328W 8426 01606 0142 +160 +148 002011 012 026 002 00
230030 1105N 05327W 8435 01598 0141 +161 +148 033012 013 025 002 03
230100 1106N 05326W 8425 01608 0136 +169 +130 034006 012 027 001 00
230130 1107N 05325W 8433 01600 0134 +173 +126 101003 005 027 005 00
230200 1108N 05324W 8435 01596 0136 +168 +134 121011 015 032 004 00
230230 1109N 05323W 8431 01597 0130 +172 +144 192005 015 032 005 03
230300 1110N 05321W 8428 01604 0129 +173 +145 224008 013 033 003 00
230330 1112N 05320W 8433 01595 0126 +177 +146 223006 009 033 003 00
230400 1113N 05319W 8440 01585 0124 +177 +148 205014 016 039 008 03
230430 1114N 05318W 8424 01601 0123 +178 +140 181020 021 041 013 00
230500 1115N 05317W 8435 01595 0131 +175 +154 163020 024 041 005 00
230530 1117N 05316W 8435 01602 0130 +183 +138 157025 026 033 000 00
230600 1118N 05314W 8418 01621 0130 +188 +134 148025 027 034 000 00
230630 1119N 05313W 8443 01599 0136 +189 +123 124028 031 036 001 03
230700 1121N 05313W 8425 01620 0144 +181 +123 108032 035 031 000 03
230730 1123N 05313W 8440 01605 0143 +179 +126 095034 036 033 000 03
230800 1124N 05313W 8439 01612 0152 +172 +144 092031 033 /// /// 03
230830 1125N 05315W 8461 01584 0150 +165 +153 091028 030 033 001 03
230900 1126N 05316W 8427 01615 0146 +161 +157 111031 034 033 001 00
230930 1127N 05318W 8422 01615 0144 +162 +159 108033 037 033 001 00
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172320
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 52 20170717
231000 1128N 05319W 8406 01634 0142 +164 +154 102034 037 029 000 00
231030 1129N 05321W 8344 01697 //// +148 //// 095032 035 031 000 01
231100 1130N 05323W 8167 01876 //// +128 //// 095034 036 031 001 05
231130 1131N 05324W 7777 02297 //// +124 //// 102038 039 /// /// 05
231200 1133N 05326W 7424 02678 0128 +116 +074 094040 041 /// /// 03
231230 1134N 05328W 7108 03047 0131 +093 +056 087043 044 /// /// 03
231300 1135N 05329W 6954 03226 0132 +081 +051 084044 044 023 000 00
231330 1136N 05331W 6961 03213 0129 +080 +049 083043 044 025 001 00
231400 1138N 05333W 6980 03190 0142 +082 +072 085043 045 025 007 00
231430 1139N 05335W 6968 03207 0131 +078 +064 085042 044 021 000 00
231500 1140N 05338W 6963 03211 0135 +074 +068 085040 043 020 000 00
231530 1142N 05340W 6967 03209 0135 +075 +065 080040 041 021 000 00
231600 1143N 05342W 6970 03209 0139 +075 +063 079040 040 017 000 00
231630 1144N 05344W 6967 03209 0136 +078 +062 082040 041 018 000 00
231700 1146N 05346W 6968 03210 0138 +076 +063 081040 041 015 000 00
231730 1147N 05348W 6965 03214 0139 +075 +064 080039 040 016 000 00
231800 1148N 05350W 6965 03214 0139 +075 +064 079038 038 015 000 00
231830 1150N 05352W 6967 03210 0138 +075 +064 080038 039 021 001 00
231900 1151N 05354W 6969 03207 0135 +079 +063 082038 039 019 001 03
231930 1152N 05356W 6966 03212 0136 +080 +062 082037 038 016 000 00
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172330
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 53 20170717
232000 1153N 05358W 6967 03211 0136 +080 +061 082036 037 014 000 00
232030 1155N 05400W 6966 03211 0135 +080 +062 079035 036 013 000 00
232100 1156N 05402W 6969 03209 0134 +081 +061 078035 036 013 000 03
232130 1157N 05404W 6968 03210 0134 +080 +062 080035 035 014 000 03
232200 1159N 05406W 6966 03216 0135 +081 +058 081034 035 013 000 00
232230 1159N 05409W 6967 03214 0132 +085 +054 082035 035 013 000 03
232300 1200N 05411W 6967 03211 0129 +085 +056 083034 035 011 000 00
232330 1201N 05413W 6967 03214 0129 +085 +058 083033 034 011 000 00
232400 1202N 05415W 6967 03212 0132 +085 +057 082031 032 012 000 00
232430 1203N 05418W 6970 03212 0129 +085 +056 084032 032 009 000 00
232500 1204N 05420W 6967 03211 0133 +083 +058 084030 031 009 000 00
232530 1205N 05422W 6967 03211 0137 +080 +060 086032 032 011 000 00
232600 1206N 05424W 6966 03218 0137 +081 +058 085031 032 013 000 00
232630 1207N 05427W 6934 03258 0137 +083 +053 087033 035 011 000 00
232700 1208N 05429W 6723 03522 0145 +067 +034 091038 040 013 000 00
232730 1208N 05431W 6482 03816 0147 +049 +010 087039 040 012 000 03
232800 1209N 05433W 6246 04130 0156 +028 +002 088037 038 012 000 00
232830 1210N 05436W 6018 04431 0140 +010 -002 088033 037 014 000 00
232900 1210N 05438W 5780 04726 0116 -005 -011 083030 030 014 000 00
232930 1211N 05440W 5572 05041 0122 -017 -024 080028 029 015 000 03
$$
;

[AutoPenalti]

I thought HWRF and HWRF-para were banned from this thread...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
800 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DON A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172340
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 54 20170717
233000 1212N 05442W 5391 05304 0291 -030 -040 081030 030 017 000 00
233030 1213N 05444W 5225 05553 0307 -042 -054 079031 031 017 000 00
233100 1213N 05444W 5225 05553 0321 -054 -069 076032 033 016 000 00
233130 1215N 05448W 4926 06019 0337 -065 -086 078031 033 016 000 00
233200 1217N 05449W 4796 06228 0351 -078 -094 082027 030 015 000 00
233230 1218N 05451W 4669 06441 0366 -089 -107 082027 027 014 000 00
233300 1219N 05453W 4551 06633 0370 -098 -126 074025 027 014 000 00
233330 1220N 05455W 4438 06829 0389 -109 -136 075021 022 016 000 00
233400 1222N 05457W 4336 07009 0400 -118 -146 083020 022 016 001 00
233430 1223N 05459W 4235 07192 0411 -129 -157 073021 025 018 000 00
233500 1224N 05500W 4146 07349 0424 -140 -166 072028 028 016 001 00
233530 1225N 05502W 4061 07511 0435 -151 -178 073029 029 013 000 00
233600 1226N 05504W 3984 07657 0445 -160 -189 073028 029 011 000 00
233630 1228N 05506W 3931 07758 0451 -170 -199 077028 029 010 000 00
233700 1229N 05508W 3923 07772 0449 -169 -206 083032 033 009 000 00
233730 1230N 05510W 3921 07770 0445 -165 -222 084031 032 010 000 00
233800 1232N 05512W 3923 07762 0441 -169 -213 087027 030 010 000 00
233830 1233N 05514W 3926 07753 0438 -168 -241 089025 026 011 000 00
233900 1235N 05517W 3923 07761 0438 -166 -268 087026 026 011 000 00
233930 1236N 05519W 3925 07758 0438 -165 -297 087024 026 012 000 03
$$

[Dougiefresh]

look islands could get stormy weather by wed good gust wind alot rain hope their ready

I can't speak for the other Islands but Barbados is ready. Plus it helps that we are flat and the water doesn't reach the devastating speeds that it can reach coming off the mountains of other Islands.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172350
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 55 20170717
234000 1238N 05521W 3926 07752 0439 -165 -288 087024 024 012 000 03
234030 1240N 05524W 3926 07757 0439 -165 -288 084024 025 012 000 03
234100 1241N 05526W 3926 07758 0439 -169 -285 079024 025 012 000 00
234130 1243N 05529W 3927 07751 0440 -170 -272 082024 025 012 000 03
234200 1244N 05531W 3926 07754 0440 -170 -264 086026 027 012 000 00
234230 1246N 05533W 3926 07758 0442 -170 -259 083026 027 017 000 03
234300 1248N 05536W 3925 07765 0442 -170 -261 081024 026 017 000 03
234330 1249N 05538W 3926 07758 0441 -170 -263 081023 024 010 000 00
234400 1251N 05541W 3926 07755 0442 -170 -263 083023 023 010 000 00
234430 1252N 05543W 3926 07757 0443 -170 -262 086023 023 011 000 00
234500 1254N 05546W 3925 07755 0441 -171 -262 083023 023 011 000 03
234530 1256N 05548W 3926 07762 0442 -171 -260 080022 023 011 000 00
234600 1257N 05550W 3926 07757 0442 -169 -264 077020 021 012 000 00
234630 1259N 05553W 3927 07758 0443 -170 -275 081020 021 011 000 00
234700 1300N 05555W 3926 07756 0444 -170 -274 083020 020 011 000 00
234730 1302N 05558W 3926 07761 0445 -170 -265 081020 020 011 000 00
234800 1304N 05600W 3926 07759 0445 -170 -275 079019 020 009 000 00
234830 1305N 05603W 3926 07763 0444 -170 -282 082020 020 009 000 00
234900 1307N 05605W 3926 07756 0444 -171 -275 087022 023 009 000 00
234930 1308N 05607W 3926 07763 0445 -175 -263 088022 023 011 000 00
$$
;