ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

#301 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:27 pm

Just a reminder one good gulp of the dry air and we will have some major puffage.( my word)

floridasun78 · #302 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:51 pm

tailgater wrote:Just a reminder one good gulp of the dry air and we will have some major puffage.( my word)

you saying don going drink of dry air soon?

floridasun78 · #303 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:57 pm

RL3AO wrote:HMON isn't playing around.

this new model let see how good work now

#304 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:02 pm

Just saying if he starts expanding his wind field , the SAL is lurking
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

#305 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:06 pm

system behind Don is handling the SAL

AutoPenalti · #306 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:11 pm

RL3AO wrote:HMON isn't playing around.

It's a nice little microcane.

TheStormExpert · #307 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:14 pm

Good call on not scrubbing recon for this afternoon as this looks to be strengthening some. Don may have a small window to become a hurricane briefly but like tailgater said if it starts to expand it's wind field and size the SAL directly to it's north a few hundred miles will get it!

TheStormExpert · #308 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:16 pm

RL3AO wrote:HMON isn't playing around.

I know HMON is very new in the game but how has it done on other systems so far this season?

TheStormExpert · #309 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:34 pm

Quick write up on Don from Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/07/18/tropical-storm-don-forms-will-impact-windward-islands-tuesday/

weathaguyry · #310 Postby **weathaguyry** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:39 pm

NHC now brings Don to 60mph at 24 hours before weakening

#311 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:43 pm

I still think the ceiling for Don is sub-hurricane strength. It takes time to organize the banding structure to get hurricane strength winds. This is still just one organized mass of thunderstorms. A little too much dry air and everything will collapse. I'd be really surprised to see anything more than a small area of 55kt winds on the N side of the low as it passed though the islands.

Weather150 · #312 Postby **Weather150** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:44 pm

Since model guidance varies widely between only showing an open wave (most
of the global models) to Don reaching hurricane strength (HWRF and
some of the statistical models), it cannot be stressed enough that
confidence in the intensity forecast is very low at this time.

Sciencerocks · #313 Postby **Sciencerocks** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:30 pm

Surface = no reflection.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=401

Within my opinion the Gfs 00z starts out way to weak.

#314 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:31 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Surface = no reflection.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=401

Within my opinion the Gfs 00z starts out way to weak.

Wait for the Parallel

Weather150 · #315 Postby **Weather150** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:37 pm

00z GFS with a very poor initialization.

#316 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:40 pm

With such a tiny storm, it doesn't take much for it to get convectively active and build up. Tomas in 2010 might be a good parallel, went from nothing to a Cat 2 landfall in barely 36 hours...

#317 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:43 pm

RL3AO wrote:I still think the ceiling for Don is sub-hurricane strength. It takes time to organize the banding structure to get hurricane strength winds. This is still just one organized mass of thunderstorms. A little too much dry air and everything will collapse. I'd be really surprised to see anything more than a small area of 55kt winds on the N side of the low as it passed though the islands.

I would generally agree. To get that strong (and to hmon levels) would require some crazy RI even EI. That's a lot for a very short amount of time before conditions deteriorate. Not impossible but a tough task especially when cloud tops are warming, needs to continue to rapidly develop without impediment.

Sciencerocks · #318 Postby **Sciencerocks** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:Surface = no reflection.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=401

Within my opinion the Gfs 00z starts out way to weak.

Wait for the Parallel

It does better
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

Surface---1013 mb low at 0 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=342

#319 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:46 pm

no excuse for not properly initializing the storm. Reminds me of Felix where global models are absolutely useless

Sciencerocks · #320 Postby **Sciencerocks** » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:46 pm

36 hours in the eastern Caribbean shows 1011mb with 40-45 knot winds at 850mb. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=228

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=456

48 hours 850 vort
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=401

60 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 1800&fh=60

60 hour 200mb
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=342
Tutt low backs southwestern into it.

72 hours
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 1800&fh=72

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