EPAC: IRWIN - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: IRWIN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:03 am

Now up. New invest.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:07 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992017 07/20/17 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 56 61 65 71 77 78 76
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 56 61 65 71 77 78 76
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 36 38 40 42 46 51 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 17 14 11 10 10 11 12 13 4 3 3 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 1 2 4 1 0 0 1 3 0
SHEAR DIR 47 44 48 44 21 359 358 349 2 61 77 254 204
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.7 27.5 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.0 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 153 153 152 142 138 143 145 143 135 132
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 77 78 77 77 73 74 72 75 70 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 16 17 19 19
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -22 -24 -23 -22 -14 -11 -33 -29 -44 -42 -13 -12
200 MB DIV 67 50 37 58 51 37 54 41 61 47 39 2 2
700-850 TADV -3 0 3 0 -2 -2 -4 -6 -3 0 1 1 0
LAND (KM) 733 732 729 710 705 767 924 1023 1150 1210 1122 929 845
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.9 14.5 14.5 13.8 13.1 13.5 15.3 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.6 104.7 105.8 106.8 109.4 112.0 114.0 115.2 115.0 113.9 113.7 115.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 12 12 14 11 8 5 4 7 12 15
HEAT CONTENT 37 41 37 37 31 32 20 13 17 16 14 11 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 31. 36. 40. 46. 52. 53. 51.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 102.7

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/20/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 15.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.6% 18.3% 6.5% 2.9% 1.5% 18.1% 27.4% 38.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.3% 1.5%
Consensus: 0.5% 14.4% 7.3% 1.0% 0.5% 11.7% 15.1% 13.4%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/20/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:44 am

Showers and thunderstorms centered about 600 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, are showing some signs of organization in
association with a broad low pressure system. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, and a tropical depression is expected to form well southwest of
Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:17 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
centered several hundred miles south of Mexico continue to show
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is
expected to form well southwest of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#5 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:46 pm

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area
of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward around 10 mph, and a tropical depression is
expected to form well southwest of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#6 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:40 pm

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP99 (INVEST)
1800 UTC Jul 20, 2017
Location: 11.8°N, 106.0°W
Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 30 kt (34 mph)
Type: Low Pressure (LO)

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:13 pm

20/2345 UTC 12.2N 107.9W T1.0/1.0 99E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#8 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:13 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:46 am

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area
of low pressure centered several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:23 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992017 07/21/17 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 43 46 49 50 51 51
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 43 46 49 50 51 51
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 32 32 32 33 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 12 12 13 15 10 1 10 12 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 4 2 0 -1 -3 0 -5 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 30 24 18 28 17 360 338 346 344 308 202 193 169
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 144 139 138 139 140 142 143 144 145
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 76 77 74 73 73 72 74 72 75 73 71 65 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 12
850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 -5 -16 -15 -26 -38 -55 -67 -83 -65 -49 -28
200 MB DIV 42 15 16 21 41 37 34 -4 11 18 0 -41 -18
700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 888 922 944 969 1010 1038 1051 1077 1116 1181 1227 1301 1415
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.4 13.9
LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.7 110.6 111.4 112.2 113.6 114.8 115.8 116.7 117.4 117.7 118.5 119.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 5 7
HEAT CONTENT 28 37 41 47 32 13 17 22 29 27 23 19 20

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 108.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.35 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 83.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.1% 8.9% 6.7% 0.0% 10.9% 11.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% 3.2% 5.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4%
Consensus: 0.9% 4.9% 3.2% 2.4% 0.1% 4.1% 5.1% 1.9%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:24 am

21/0600 UTC 11.7N 109.1W T1.5/1.5 99E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:42 am

A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for the formation of a tropical
depression during the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development. This system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#13 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:18 am

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP99 (INVEST)
1200 UTC Jul 21, 2017
Location: 13.2°N, 109.0°W
Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 30 kt (34 mph)
Type: Low Pressure (LO)

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:55 am

21/1200 UTC 13.1N 108.5W T1.5/1.5 99E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:56 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992017 07/21/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 42 47 54 55 57 59 60
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 42 47 54 55 57 59 60
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 33 34 36 38 39 40
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 10 10 12 13 5 2 11 13 21 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 24 9 9 359 344 336 347 8 145 164 162 151 147
SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 141 137 141 144 145 144 144 145 144 145
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 71 71 71 74 73 75 73 67 61 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 13 14 15 16
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -28 -31 -23 -20 -37 -51 -67 -71 -49 -32 -28 -32
200 MB DIV 9 0 8 24 30 34 32 20 -5 -4 -36 21 -4
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 0 2 2 1 5 4
LAND (KM) 806 824 877 956 982 1079 1194 1270 1279 1221 1222 1344 1596
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.3 13.8 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.6 13.5
LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.1 111.2 112.4 113.5 115.5 116.8 117.3 117.0 116.8 117.5 119.3 121.7
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 8 5 2 2 3 7 10 14
HEAT CONTENT 43 34 31 17 11 19 21 17 15 19 22 19 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 24. 25. 27. 29. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 109.0

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.0% 8.3% 6.5% 0.0% 10.0% 10.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.5% 2.1% 5.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 1.0% 4.6% 3.2% 2.6% 0.2% 3.9% 4.3% 2.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#16 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:59 am

GFS develops this by early next week. Its fate seems to be tied with how quickly Greg gets out of the way as it fights shear more so than 90E
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:57 pm

A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for the
formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days
before upper-level winds become unfavorable for development. This
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at around
10 mph through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:41 am

A low pressure system is centered about 500 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite data
indicates that a low-level circulation exists, and only a small
increase in the organization of associated shower and thunderstorm
activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression.
Environmental conditions are forecast to continue to be conducive
for development for the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:44 am

Looks like a depression!

Image
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:59 am

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102014
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

I thought there was no more room for another cyclone in the eastern
Pacific basin, but nature managed to produce another one. The
disturbance that NHC has been monitoring for several days has
finally developed enough circulation and convection to be classified
as a tropical depression, the sixth cyclone that has formed in the
month of July.

The center is located on the northern edge of a circular mass of
deep convection and, based of an average of Dvorak numbers, it is
being assigned an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is in
between TS Greg and TD 9-E, and the environment is not ideal for
strengthening. However, most of the global models show a decrease
of the shear in the next few days, and this will allow some
intensification.

The depression is trapped south of a subtropical ridge and is moving
toward the west at about 6 kt. The nose of the ridge is forecast to
amplify westward, and this flow pattern will likely force the
cyclone on a slow west and then west-southwest track during the next
five days. Most of the guidance agree with this solution, but one
must use caution since there could be some interaction with Tropical
Depression Nine-E which increases the forecast uncertainty.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.7N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 13.5N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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