ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Don't forget we usually don't see Cape Verde systems developing out that far until after Aug 15th so not a big surprise it is struggling. In another couple of weeks it probably will be a much different story.

[OuterBanker]

I do stand corrected. Apparently, Camille was a tropical wave for eight days before it developed. And if I remember correctly Andrew didn't really blow up until the Caribbean. (Corrections may be needed and welcomed).

[Nimbus]

My forecast a few days ago called for 99L to close off around -45w.
Tonight there are actually some clouds visible on the south side of the wave apex moving east near -42w.
Mid level vortex should be getting close enough to the surface that it will convect at its center. Hasn't been much of any inflow artifacts visible during the day thus far.

[CourierPR]

I do stand corrected. Apparently, Camille was a tropical wave for eight days before it developed. And if I remember correctly Andrew didn't really blow up until the Caribbean. (Corrections may be needed and welcomed).

Andrew was never in the Caribbean Sea.

[Hammy]

18z GFS continues to show no interest in 99L...Late in the long range forecast it does show two potential systems, one in the Atlantic and one in the Caribbean Sea.

If I recall, last year with Hermine, the models dropped it entirely for several days until it started getting close to the Bahamas--and ironically I believe it was also 99L.

[abajan]

I do stand corrected. Apparently, Camille was a tropical wave for eight days before it developed. And if I remember correctly Andrew didn't really blow up until the Caribbean. (Corrections may be needed and welcomed).

Andrew was never in the Caribbean Sea.

Not in the Caribbean Sea, but in the Bahamas which in some contexts are considered part of the Caribbean. They are part of CARICOM.

[wxman57]

Looks like a moderate tropical wave, to me. May have a 10-20% shot at developing in 3-5 days, which is about average for a wave this time of year.

[OuterBanker]

Yep, 99l is waving it's hands saying "I'm not dead yet" this morning.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

An elongated area of low pressure located about midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Unfavorable environmental
conditions should limit development of this system during the next
few days, but conditions could become more conducive for some
increase in organization of this disturbance by the end of the week.
This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward across
the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ronjon]

Its showing the most convection at anytime in its life. Broad turning - still disorganized. Looks to be entering a slightly more favorable environment. Have to keep watching as it moves just north of the greater antilles this weekend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[gatorcane]

The GFS and ECMWF have significant differences in the strength of the Western Atlantic ridge in 4-5 days from now with the GFS showing a much strong and westward expanding ridge which pushes this wave into Florida. On the other hand the ECMWF shows the western flank of the ridge more eroded which sends this wave recurving east of the Bahamas. There is a flare-up in the wave but conditions to look a bit rough along its path for the next few days but better after that. Because of the time of year it needs to be watched.

[OuterBanker]

Probably just temporary, but it does seems as there is a slight spin up with llc and mlc alignment around 45.5 w 15.5 n. Quite a bit north of what seemed like the spin ups that hung around 12 n for so long.

[Sanibel]

You know the drill for the mid Atlantic at this time of year...Watch for possible redevelopment further west or wipe out from conditions...

[Weather150]

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Unfavorable environmental conditions should limit
development of this system during the next few days, but some
development is possible by the weekend. This system is expected to
move generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at
about 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Steve]

I think the NAVGEM and CMC both have a much better handle on 99L than do the GFS or European. You don't say or hear that very often. The CMC recuves about halfway between US and Bermuda. NAVGEM intensifies heading up toward the curve in the coast south of NC. It hasn't finished running yet to see if it landfalls or stays out to sea. It's going to be close. I'd be willing to bet we get something out of this around or near the Bahamas, and probably a named storm at that.

[StormTracker]

I think the wave behind 99L will probably have a better chance of maturing earlier & faster because of 99L clearing out a lot of SAL. Okay, back on topic...

[beoumont]

Every picture tells a story.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z Euro might develop this now after showing not much on the 00Z run previously:

[gatorcane]

99L east of the Lesser Antilles catches your eye when you look at the big picture: