ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weather150]

00z EPS seemed to like it still.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro back on the development bandwagon:

[Weather150]

12z Euro liking it this run.

[tolakram]

It washes out the upper low now, moving it east and dissipating (at least at the 500mb level).

[ronjon]

Question is..does that 500 mb ridging hold or give way to the trough to its west on the ECM after 5 days?

[gatorcane]

144 hours:

[tolakram]

I'm not good at reading the 500mb charts so i can't say for sure. I suspect we have to wait a few more frames to find out.

[gatorcane]

looks like it is organizing quickly on this 12Z Euro run east of Bahamas as it starts the recurve

[gatorcane]

Euro getting stronger at 168 hours:

[tolakram]

[AubreyStorm]

I think the wave behind 99L will probably have a better chance of maturing earlier & faster because of 99L clearing out a lot of SAL. Okay, back on topic...

Hi!
Behind? Where? Sorry

[GeneratorPower]

Classic recurve just off Eastern US coast. Euro mostly trustworthy. Heavily skeptical of the eventual GFS insistence that it will hit the coast. Follow ECMWF trend, it's your friend.

[tolakram]

[Weather150]

Euro likes 99L now.

[Bocadude85]

Classic recurve just off Eastern US coast. Euro mostly trustworthy. Heavily skeptical of the eventual GFS insistence that it will hit the coast. Follow ECMWF trend, it's your friend.

I wouldn't be sold on a recurve, it seems to me that these slowly developing systems always make it farther west then first modeled.

[tolakram]

Has taken the turn and appears to be weakening or transitioning.

[gatorcane]

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to weaken some out to 192hrs as it moves north. The precip distribution on weatherbell images seems to suggest northerly shear as all the precip is located on the southern half of the circulation.

[AtlanticWind]

looks like it is organizing quickly on this 12Z Euro run east of Bahamas as it starts the recurve

No Model is trustworthy at 168 hours,would not take much of a shift for an East coast threat were the system
to develop.
Very unlikely a storm if it were to form would end up exactly where the EURO is showing it now.
Watch the trends over the next few days. JMO

[tolakram]

Also keep in mind this is one run and the Euro has been having fits this year. If we get a good signal on both the 12Z and 0Z runs then maybe.