ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[Cpv17]

That's what dmax can do. Convection will probably die down later this morning into the afternoon.

[GCANE]

WV imagery is showing mid-levels to the west of the convection starting to moisten.
This has been a persistent problem area.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO up to 50%-60%

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone
once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[xironman]

Almost looks like it found a bit of anti-cyclone to be under

[GCANE]

Overshooting Tops thru a building cirrus.
Not bad.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

HI going in later if this convection can sustain for awhile then we will likely get a LLC to close off by tonight maybe

[NDG]

Nice pressure drop as the axis trough passed through buoy 41043. Remnants of Harry look much better than this time yesterday.

[ronjon]

All systems go to become a tropical cyclone again. Now where does it go once it reaches the Yucatan? Models still split on whether it takes a more NW jog toward Tx.

[NDG]

It caught up to the anticylcone center this morning, much better conditions than this time yesterday.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2017082012, , BEST, 0, 147N, 755W, 30, 1006, WV

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Overall I think it'll take 24 hours to re develop a LLC but I want yalls thoughts on how long it might take or if it will develop at all..... conditions are their plus high TCHP this could become a tropicall depression by the time Hurricane Hunters go in !

[srainhoutx]

This is a good reason to remember to never write of a Tropical Cyclone until its dead and gone. NE wind shear has collapsed as Harvey moved quickly West and out ran the shear that was impacting it. Tropical Specialist Beven repeated that several times yesterday and now we see what can happen when conditions become less hostile. My hunch is that RECON will report wind gusts of TS strength and due to the proximity to Central America, we may see Watches/Warnings hoisted later today from Honduras, Belize and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. I want to see via RECON if in fact it has gained that latitude. If that is the case, it could have implications down the road regarding the future track.

[GCANE]

That dry slot to its immediate west has filled in fast.
With the heavy convection and Harvey moving now under the anti-cyclone, a warm core could develop quickly.

[Alyono]

wasn't expecting this overnight development

Let's see if the convection can persist through the day

[NDG]

If convection persists through the day I thing there is a good chance that the recon will find TS Harvey again.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

If convection persists through the day I thing there is a good chance that the recon will find TS Harvey again.

Is it closer to 14N or 15N it looks near 15N at the moment but maybe someone here can tell me

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Are conditions favorable based on everything I read it seems moisture values are rising in the area and it's encountering less shear

[NDG]

Are conditions favorable based on everything I read it seems moisture values are rising in the area and it's encountering less shear

Yes, conditions are improving as long as it stays clear of Nicaragua/Honduras.

[GCANE]

Shear west of 76W is pretty much non-existent.
With the large and persistent convection, I expect east of it will improve as well in the next few hours.