ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dougiefresh]

Squalls already affecting Barbados.

http://i.imgur.com/AXoPsIG.gif

Yea we had light to moderate sustained rainfall from that squall line and more looks to be on the way from the NE. If only our own radar was working...

I saw Barbados radar is down until Sept 2017 earliest, so what radar are you viewing TS Harvey with NDG?

Using Martinique's. We are really missing that extra 300km that our radar would provide.Got some thunderstorms to the east. This is an image from the lightning detector on the island

[euro6208]

Reminds me of Banyan recently where the models (EURO, GFS) practically failed in developing it when it was already a robust TC but caught up later. Can the same be said for Harvey?

[ColdMiser123]

Significantly stronger GFS run through hour 24 compared to 12z, slightly stronger compared to 18z.

[Sciencerocks]

Significantly stronger GFS run through hour 24 compared to 12z, slightly stronger compared to 18z.

Yep, straight westward for the next 24 hours and 1003mb.

[Sciencerocks]

Same at 36 hours https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1800&fh=36

[storm_in_a_teacup]

alas, yet another model fail.. I do hope this reliance on models for Genesis stops. until we can not only solve but utilize "Navier–Stokes equations" without truncating among many other fluid/thermo dynamical issues its only prudent to use logic vs. faith in models flawed from the get go. we were better off using models as a guide but it has turned into reliance that has failed more times than has succeeded. I guess it will take a major failure and huge impact to change the recent mentality from the past 10 years of mild seasons..

Unfortunately there isn't much physics you can model without using approximations and truncating stuff somewhere. I guess it comes down to having a human make a judgment call eventually. (Which is why this one physics professor who claimed you could just replace meteorologists with computers irked me, but that's a story for another day...)

[Dougiefresh]

Just went through what had to be a hot tower. Lightning show was incredible. Had numerous cloud to ground strikes. Rain hasn't stopped since the major area of convection has started moving over some 3 hours ago.

[christchurchguy]

Its alot quieter now, was falling about an inch an hour with lightning and what looks like west of sw winds.

[christchurchguy]

Wonder if it could be relocating?

[hd44]

System looks very weak to me. This is an irregular cdo indicating of a displaced llc, and something that can degenerate quickly in the east Caribbean sea. However we will need to watch for regeneration ala Ecmwf.

[NotoSans]

The NHC seems very annoyed by the inconsistency that the global models have exhibited this year...

The moderate easterly shear affecting the cyclone is expected to
increase a little during the next day or so, and this factor should
not allow significant strengthening. Once the cyclone reaches the
western Caribbean Sea in 3 or 4 days, an environment of lower shear
and high moisture is forecast to prevail, and Harvey should then
gather some strength. The cyclone could be near hurricane strength
by the time it is approaching Central America or the Yucatan
peninsula. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
is very close to the intensity consensus. The GFS and the ECMWF
global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the
cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they
might forecast the next time.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The NHC seems very annoyed by the inconsistency that the global models have exhibited this year...

The moderate easterly shear affecting the cyclone is expected to
increase a little during the next day or so, and this factor should
not allow significant strengthening. Once the cyclone reaches the
western Caribbean Sea in 3 or 4 days, an environment of lower shear
and high moisture is forecast to prevail, and Harvey should then
gather some strength. The cyclone could be near hurricane strength
by the time it is approaching Central America or the Yucatan
peninsula. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
is very close to the intensity consensus. The GFS and the ECMWF
global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the
cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they
might forecast the next time.

They even because the models have not been doing well at all

[NDG]

The NHC seems very annoyed by the inconsistency that the global models have exhibited this year...

The moderate easterly shear affecting the cyclone is expected to
increase a little during the next day or so, and this factor should
not allow significant strengthening. Once the cyclone reaches the
western Caribbean Sea in 3 or 4 days, an environment of lower shear
and high moisture is forecast to prevail, and Harvey should then
gather some strength. The cyclone could be near hurricane strength
by the time it is approaching Central America or the Yucatan
peninsula. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
is very close to the intensity consensus. The GFS and the ECMWF
global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the
cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they
might forecast the next time.

Too funny, but it is sad how what are supposed to be the top 2 global models the inconsistency they have.

[chaser1]

That one lands into my top 5 discussions for sure!

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

This storm is looking really good at the moment it is starting to slowly organize and once it hits the Western Caribbean watch out !

[Nimbus]

When these models overload and "go back to momma" we always seem to get something about as clear as Pink Floyd.

[Alyono]

if there still is a center this morning, looking at radar (I just woke up, so I havn't looked at any obs yet), it may be south of Barbados. VERY disorganized this morning

[bevgo]

I hope this at least makes a run for hurricane.

I love tracking and love a good hurricane as much as anyone. Please remember when wishing for a hurricane that PEOPLE are in its path. PEOPLE that can lose everything including their lives and lives of those they love! We need to be a bit more sensitive IMHO. I know you are not wishing for that, but I have memories of Katrina and someone on chat wanting her to hit NOLA. This person downplayed the potential for flooding there. I had property, family and friends there. Please storm2k folks. If Harvey makes hurricane status, it is not just a pretty picture on our maps but a potentially DISASTER for the folks in his path.

[Nimbus]

if there still is a center this morning, looking at radar (I just woke up, so I havn't looked at any obs yet), it may be south of Barbados. VERY disorganized this morning

NW of Barbados small but intact.

[Alyono]

if there still is a center this morning, looking at radar (I just woke up, so I havn't looked at any obs yet), it may be south of Barbados. VERY disorganized this morning

NW of Barbados small but intact.

not seeing anything there. Plus, Barbados has an 8 mph east wind. If the center is northwest of Barbados, this is an open wave