ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I don't see any west winds. I see some light and variable winds.

[xironman]

Maybe around where that tower is currently blowing up

[NDG]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I agree with NDG,and likely they will find more 289's due S .

[HURAKAN]

my guess

[AtlanticWind]

This has likely lost its circulation, maybe regains it in the western carribean.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.meteo.cw/rad_loop_ppi.php?La ... CC&Sws=R11

Curacao radar ... no rotation

[Portastorm]

This has likely lost its circulation, maybe regains it in the western carribean.

Forecaster Blake from the NHC pretty much pegged it in his early morning discussion.

[wxman57]

It's still a strong wave, and will likely regain its LLC in a day or so prior to reaching the Yucatan.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

It's still a strong wave, and will likely regain its LLC in a day or so prior to reaching the Yucatan.

When do conditions start to become more favorable ???? Based on models it should be after 24 hours ?

[NDG]

Closed circulation found, case closed



Edit, closed but definitely weak at the moment.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Closed circulation found, case closed

Yeah I saw 1008 MB

[wxman57]

Closed circulation found, case closed

Yeah, they found a weak swirl which should be enough for the NHC not to downgrade it. No good evidence of TS winds, though.

[NDG]

X is where they found the wind shift, could be that the LLC is redeveloping near that hot tower at the moment.

[Alyono]

to my surprise, it has a circulation.

Now, it may have weakened to a depression though

[BZSTORM]

I appreciate most of you on this board are concerned about TS Harvey after it has crossed Belize/Yucatan and USA threat but there are still Belizean, Hondurans and Mexicans who right now are more concerned with where Harvey will landfall and on our borders and intensity. The models even at 3 days out are still all over the place changing intensity and route almost run to run. I am fast coming to conclusion that we might not know this until Monday or IF/when there is a more decisive move NW to W on Sunday. I would appreciate the pro mets on the board for their take on when we might have more conclusive idea as so far model tracks almost seem to be reruns of previous years tracks for other storms. What I can add is climatically Belize has felt hotter and more humid than previous years, since April like we are 2 months ahead of ourselves for average temperatures, the humidity has been especially higher then normal, Belize water table is already at max, so even 3" rain will cause flooding in Belize. Also the Tropical wave currently across Eastern Cuba which is travelling slower than TS Harvey so not sure if that would cross Belize and Yucatan before TS reaches Gulf of Honduras there appears to be almost 8mph difference in speed right now. Could any of the pro-mets explain if or how is this likely to affect TS Harvey i.e regeneration or disruption I don't know enough about the physics of one system on another. All I know right now is this much uncertainty on track always makes me a bit jumpy. We are always prepared for worst here and hope for the best but Belize is a small country and when you have the whole country as a target it narrows down where you can move to get away for a storm. Many thanks for any input/observations 16 yrs watching these systems and I am still learning.

[NDG]

to my surprise, it has a circulation.

Now, it may have weakened to a depression though

I am thinking that if they find TS force winds it will be in the convection to the WSW of the weak LLC, maybe.

[gigabite]

This is the path of the New Moon superimposed over the NRL Tropical Storm Harvey projected path. On and after the day of New Moon the moons latitude will be south of the system.

[Alyono]

I appreciate most of you on this board are concerned about TS Harvey after it has crossed Belize/Yucatan and USA threat but there are still Belizean, Hondurans and Mexicans who right now are more concerned with where Harvey will landfall and on our borders and intensity. The models even at 3 days out are still all over the place changing intensity and route almost run to run. I am fast coming to conclusion that we might not know this until Monday or IF/when there is a more decisive move NW to W on Sunday. I would appreciate the pro mets on the board for their take on when we might have more conclusive idea as so far model tracks almost seem to be reruns of previous years tracks for other storms. What I can add is climatically Belize has felt hotter and more humid than previous years, since April like we are 2 months ahead of ourselves for average temperatures, the humidity has been especially higher then normal, Belize water table is already at max, so even 3" rain will cause flooding in Belize. Also the Tropical wave currently across Eastern Cuba which is travelling slower than TS Harvey so not sure if that would cross Belize and Yucatan before TS reaches Gulf of Honduras there appears to be almost 8mph difference in speed right now. Could any of the pro-mets explain if or how is this likely to affect TS Harvey i.e regeneration or disruption I don't know enough about the physics of one system on another. All I know right now is this much uncertainty on track always makes me a bit jumpy. We are always prepared for worst here and hope for the best but Belize is a small country and when you have the whole country as a target it narrows down where you can move to get away for a storm. Many thanks for any input/observations 16 yrs watching these systems and I am still learning.

the track up to Belize has been high confidence. The models are also showing the heavy rains south fo the center as it impacts Honduras, so the threat of major flooding is high. Cannot rule out a repeat of Matthew from 2010 in Honduras

[NDG]

No TS force winds found yet so they might downgrade it to a TD or maybe they might hold on to see if it refires more convection near its weak LLC.