ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CycloneCaptain]

Shows that we are getting near the height of the season!

[blp]

Much better definition between the two areas at every level. I think all it needs now is sustained convection at the mid levels for it to start to take off.

850mb


700mb


500mb

[SouthFLTropics]

Considering the poor consistency with the models as of late I think the best thing to do is take them lightly at the moment and instead focus on what we're actually seeing on satellite. Both areas of interest look pretty impressive on visible this morning with obvious rotation on each of them. I think it is more of a nowcast situation until we actually get something to form for the models to initialize off of. I would guess that at some point soon we will see a second invest tagged.

SFT

[blp]

Considering the poor consistency with the models as of late I think the best thing to do is take them lightly at the moment and instead focus on what we're actually seeing on satellite. Both areas of interest look pretty impressive on visible this morning with obvious rotation on each of them. I think it is more of a nowcast situation until we actually get something to form for the models to initialize off of. I would guess that at some point soon we will see a second invest tagged.

SFT

I totally agree.

[wxman57]

Both disturbances are embedded in a moderate SAL outbreak. It looks worse on the NASA site (below) than on the SSEC graphic.

[gatorcane]

well one thing is for sure. 91L is proving why you just can't hug a single model despite how good a model did with the previous storm. Most of us did not believe the GFS's forecast of the eastern area vorticity becoming such a separate entity and look what is happening. The ECMWF forecast of the areas consolidating into one area and becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean (and storm before entering Caribbean) looks very suspect at this point.

[GCANE]

From CIMSS
SAL
WV
and the two 850mb Vorts

[Blown Away]

Wow, models/NHC backing off 91L. 06z GFS sends 91L due W as TW into Caribbean, sends TW behind it into/near SFL, and develops TW just off Africa into Hurricane into/near NE Caribbean and recurves just in time away from CONUS. Euro same thing, just recurves Hurricane sooner. CONUS shield still strong...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tend to think 91 already has a closed off weak surface circulation atm.

[RL3AO]

I think it looks like two slowly organizing tropical cyclones (with 92L looking the better one). But ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has developed quickly.

[gatorcane]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the
Lesser Antilles remains disorganized. This system is expected to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Some slow development
of this system is possible before it moves into the Caribbean Sea,
where environmental conditions are expected to be less conducive
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[SFLcane]

Is that 40kts of shear I see near the Caribbean? Yikes

[AutoPenalti]

Is that 40kts of shear I see near the Caribbean? Yikes

Gotta love TUTT's.

Such a permanent feature...

[Sanibel]

This might be some action if you extrapolate 99L...

[Layten Holland]

It is definitely a concern to see the consensus around the models on 91L. However, whilst it is a little far out, its worth still making preparations if you are in the possible path of the system. Better safe than sorry as far as tropical cyclones are concerned, especially when its a CV type system.

[KatFive]

Hi,

I found this place a few days ago and I'm amazed at the amount of information. Great stuff.

On a side note, I am supposed to be in Cancun next week. How soon do you think there will be enough information to whether or not I should cancel my trip?

Cheers!.

[TheStormExpert]

Anti-cyclone has developed quickly.

DANG!! What a big fat wall of shear.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2017081518, , BEST, 0, 138N, 428W, 25, 1011

[tropicwatch]

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