ATL: HARVEY - Models

[stormlover2013]

Navy model, Corpus Christi


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=127

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

NCEP ens locked and loaded?

LOW and precip.







Heavy precip N upto to the boarder..

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro shifts north as well. Now has it making landfall just south of Brownsville. The threat to TX has increased tonight.

[stormlover2013]

Yep still got time for more shifts north also

[Cpv17]

I bet this run of the Euro is around 100 miles north of the last run.

[stormlover2013]

Way farther than 100 miles

[Cpv17]

Way farther than 100 miles

Yep, probably so. Regardless, it looks like TX is in for a lot of rain considering we'd be on the dirty side.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
GEFS #20
00Z and 12Z...N

UKMO #23 ....S

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

06 just uploaded http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

NHC
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS considerably more North.

[GCANE]

COAMPS:
Tex/Mex Border

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... 50&tau=999

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

OK anywhere from Tampico to Matagorda Bay is in play here and the trend isn't good either..... Texas is more in play now

[stormreader]

OK anywhere from Tampico to Matagorda Bay is in play here and the trend isn't good either..... Texas is more in play now

Remember that "complex situation" in the GOM that you mentioned three days ago or so? It was followed shortly after by that "aberrant" Euro run which took the storm north parallel to the Texas coast. Models swung back south and it seemed like a Texas landfall wasn't in the cards. But looks like this storm is going to get quite a bit farther north than most thought. If you look at visible, you can see that there will a very broad area of storms making the crossing into the GOM. The storm could actually reorganize at a point further north in the GOM than one would suspect. This would put it well on the way to points further north than was foreseen by most.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

OK anywhere from Tampico to Matagorda Bay is in play here and the trend isn't good either..... Texas is more in play now

Remember that "complex situation" in the GOM that you mentioned three days ago or so? It was followed shortly after by that "aberrant" Euro run which took the storm north parallel to the Texas coast. Models swung back south and it seemed like a Texas landfall wasn't in the cards. But looks like this storm is going to get quite a bit farther north than most thought. If you look at visible, you can see that there will a very broad area of storms making the crossing into the GOM. The storm could actually reorganize at a point further north in the GOM than one would suspect. This would put it well on the way to points further north than was foreseen by most.

I was definitely correct about the complex steering and it's still complex this could move NW or NNW but it has a chance to get pulled due North

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

cmc/ bookends

[NDG]

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Can you post the NAVY MIDEL when it comes out please ?

[Alyono]

HWRF back to Tampico

[stormreader]

Well there you go. Starting to come together now on a US landfall. What many of us thought was the likely outcome on Friday. Might still have a couple of curve balls thrown at us, as far as direction and intensity once its in the GOM.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Well there you go. Starting to come together now on a US landfall. What many of us thought was the likely outcome on Friday. Might still have a couple of curve balls thrown at us, as far as direction and intensity once its in the GOM.

I'm expecting a weak category 1 maybe a strong tropical storm for now