ATL: HARVEY - Models

[NDG]

[Alyono]

new GFS has shifted south into Nicaragua

Very unlikely that this affects TX

[NDG]

new GFS has shifted south into Nicaragua

Very unlikely that this affects TX

There goes the GFS once again with shifting the energy from the Caribbean to the EPAC, how many times has it done that with previous runs & systems and has failed. I got to the point to where I do not trust the GFS past its 72 hr forecast. Just my opinion.

[Alyono]

making a WNW turn. However, it is weaker than 6Z

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

making a WNW turn. However, it is weaker than 6Z

This run it has a better vorticity signature so far but I can't trust this run because it develops a strong vorticy in the Epac it's likely convective feedback issues

[perk]

new GFS has shifted south into Nicaragua

Very unlikely that this affects TX

I'm surprised that more than 5 days out you can make this claim.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

This run is more north east

[Alyono]

new GFS has shifted south into Nicaragua

Very unlikely that this affects TX

I'm surprised that more than 5 days out you can make this claim.

going by some objective probabilities I have calculated from ensembles

The only place right now with more than a remote chance of an impact along the TX coast is Brownsville

[Tireman4]

new GFS has shifted south into Nicaragua

Very unlikely that this affects TX

I'm surprised that more than 5 days out you can make this claim.

This could be sarcasm...

[Alyono]

this GFS run should be farther to the north given that it is indicating a slower motion

[NDG]

One more time, just how the GFS was forecasting a strong mid level ridge across the NW GOM which surely would had buried Harvey into C.A.
Keeps trending towards a big weakness in the NW GOM.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

this GFS run should be farther to the north given that it is indicating a slower motion

I agree 100% I respect your opinion and I'll give it a 50/50 chance of pulling north thanks again for your thoughts

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

One more time, just how the GFS was forecasting a strong mid level ridge across the NW GOM which surely would had buried Harvey into C.A.
Keeps trending towards a big weakness in the NW GOM.

Yeah I noticed this and it's kinda concerning but this model is downright terrible it's been shifting alot even 72 hours out !

[SoupBone]

One more time, just how the GFS was forecasting a strong mid level ridge across the NW GOM which surely would had buried Harvey into C.A.
Keeps trending towards a big weakness in the NW GOM.

Yeah I noticed this and it's kinda concerning but this model is downright terrible it's been shifting alot even 72 hours out !

You keep saying this without acknowledging that they have all been all over the place with little to no consistency. There is no trend whatsoever with any of them.

[Frank P]

Well as many models that are run on these systems, eventually one might accidently get a 5 to 7 day forecast right... there is always hope for them!

[TexasBreeze]

This thing is barely even named right now. If it opens to a wave, then a Central America track it will be...

[Alyono]

GFS goes slower, Canadian faster.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

This thing is barely even named right now. If it opens to a wave, then a Central America track it will be...

That isn't a valid statement but I'll leave it be

[Alyono]

Canadian appears buried in the BOC. Still no trend on the models. Ping ponging continues

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Canadian appears buried in the BOC. Still no trend on the models. Ping ponging continues

This pattern is extremely complex so I understand why models are flip flopping but what makes it worse is you can't trust most of these models past 48 hours