ATL: HARVEY - Models

[floridasun78]

HMON-PARA doing same strong hurr hitting hiati https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91L_43.png

[floridasun78]

neither become a TC. Not only is there SAL, but there are upper lows according to the GFS

gfs show not thing weak system

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS says almost the entire Atlantic, outside of the Western Caribbean, is extra dry.

[Alyono]

GFS says almost the entire Atlantic, outside of the Western Caribbean, is extra dry.

That's the first thing the GFS has got right in a long time

The tropical Atlantic may be as hostile as it was in 2013 right now. However, other parts of the basin are MUCH more favorable than 2013

[Kingarabian]

neither become a TC. Not only is there SAL, but there are upper lows according to the GFS

I'm guessing the models initially analyzed the upper level lows incorrectly as the Euro had a ULL providing ventilation and promoting development.

[SoupBone]

GFS says almost the entire Atlantic, outside of the Western Caribbean, is extra dry.

That's the first thing the GFS has got right in a long time

The tropical Atlantic may be as hostile as it was in 2013 right now. However, other parts of the basin are MUCH more favorable than 2013

Such as? Gulf of Mexico? Caribbean Queen?

[Alyono]

GFS says almost the entire Atlantic, outside of the Western Caribbean, is extra dry.

That's the first thing the GFS has got right in a long time

The tropical Atlantic may be as hostile as it was in 2013 right now. However, other parts of the basin are MUCH more favorable than 2013

Such as? Gulf of Mexico? Caribbean Queen?

Gulf, western Caribbean, and subtropical western Atlantic are far more favorable than 2013. But the tropical Atlantic... well... lets just say we saw this dry air song and dance 4 years ago

[Hurricaneman]

GFS says almost the entire Atlantic, outside of the Western Caribbean, is extra dry.

That's the first thing the GFS has got right in a long time

The tropical Atlantic may be as hostile as it was in 2013 right now. However, other parts of the basin are MUCH more favorable than 2013

Id say conditions are similar moisture wise to such years as 1985, 2005

[Steve]

So GFS brings the front wave out to the Pacific but splits a piece of energy off or it's the secondary piece that rounds the Atlantic High. Then the next wave hits EC FL. CMC develops 91L and the next system and both appear to be recurves. Not necessarily buying that either.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

HWFI insane intensity forecast





Split.

[Alyono]

something wrong with that plot. tropical tidbits only has a cat 3 HWRF for the 0Z run. That may be the 18Z interpolated run, which had the boundary issue. It is even worse on the 0Z. Storm goes outside of the high-res domain

[Alyono]

ec is saying "those in the islands can enjoy their week. No need to worry about a cyclone"

[AtlanticWind]

ec is saying "those in the islands can enjoy their week. No need to worry about a cyclone"

Question is whether it's right.

[Sciencerocks]

00z Gfs and Cmc both north of the islands. Sounds Gertish to me The Ecmwf doesn't form it at all within the next 72 hours, but kind of starts to develop in the western Caribbean by 96 hours with a weak "vort" but by 120 hours the northern piece of energy forms a "vort" that takes over near the position of the 00z gfs, cmc, navgem, etc. The ecmwf like the gfs doesn't strengthen it.

A big problem is the "size" and broadness of this system won't allow one area to focus to form into something.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342

But North of the islands later in the period it appears that something finally comes together.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=228


Later in the period around 190-208 hours as the system would most likely most threaten the United states you once again have a massive trough over the east coast.

Cmc shows a much stronger system that is recurving out to sea by the same but somewhat less deep trough!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

NavGem shows a weaker system somewhat southward at the same time.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114 More ridging to the north of course, but ends at 180 hours so don't know if it breaks down.


My odds take it north of the islands and do a gret like possibility of development...Some chance of it forming in the caribbean with the southern piece of energy as the "hurricane models" posted above or Ecmwf show of course so nothing is set in stone.

[Kingarabian]

Never seen the Euro this inconsistent.

However it just seems like the models are having an incredibly hard time in properly gauging the SAL.

[AtlanticWind]

Never seen the Euro this inconsistent.

However it just seems like the models are having an incredibly hard time in properly gauging the SAL.

There is always some SAL during hurricane seasons.
The models definitely are having major issues this year for some reason, so inconsistent run to run .

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ec is saying "those in the islands can enjoy their week. No need to worry about a cyclone"

I will be surprised if the leeward Islands don't see anything by this weekend.

[AutoPenalti]

ec is saying "those in the islands can enjoy their week. No need to worry about a cyclone"

Wow.

[Alyono]

Never seen the Euro this inconsistent.

However it just seems like the models are having an incredibly hard time in properly gauging the SAL.

There is always some SAL during hurricane seasons.
The models definitely are having major issues this year for some reason, so inconsistent run to run .

SAL is unusually severe this year

[Hammy]

Never seen the Euro this inconsistent.

However it just seems like the models are having an incredibly hard time in properly gauging the SAL.

There is always some SAL during hurricane seasons.
The models definitely are having major issues this year for some reason, so inconsistent run to run .

SAL is unusually severe this year

What's the likelihood of the remainder of the season playing out similarly to 2014? If I remember correctly it was quite high then as well.