ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Alyono]

ping pong continues

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 20.3N 90.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 84 19.9N 91.8W 1006 22
0000UTC 24.08.2017 96 20.7N 92.6W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 108 21.6N 93.5W 998 33
0000UTC 25.08.2017 120 22.6N 95.1W 989 45
1200UTC 25.08.2017 132 23.6N 96.5W 983 49
0000UTC 26.08.2017 144 24.8N 98.2W 979 54

Yep. Big shift north on the 0z UKMET. These models man...

think I am raising the BS flag on this. The system appears to have totally dissipated. I'd say maybe a 10% chance of regeneration at most

[stormlover2013]

Image please

[South Texas Storms]

ping pong continues

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 20.3N 90.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 84 19.9N 91.8W 1006 22
0000UTC 24.08.2017 96 20.7N 92.6W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 108 21.6N 93.5W 998 33
0000UTC 25.08.2017 120 22.6N 95.1W 989 45
1200UTC 25.08.2017 132 23.6N 96.5W 983 49
0000UTC 26.08.2017 144 24.8N 98.2W 979 54

Yep. Big shift north on the 0z UKMET. These models man...

think I am raising the BS flag on this. The system appears to have totally dissipated. I'd say maybe a 10% chance of regeneration at most

I think it's much higher than that. The Bay of Campeche will be quite favorable for this system to regenerate there. We'll see what the Euro says in a few hours.

[Cpv17]

Yep. Big shift north on the 0z UKMET. These models man...

think I am raising the BS flag on this. The system appears to have totally dissipated. I'd say maybe a 10% chance of regeneration at most

I think it's much higher than that. The Bay of Campeche will be quite favorable for this system to regenerate there. We'll see what the Euro says in a few hours.

BOC has been a hot spot for years now for genesis. I see no reason to think it won't be now.

[Alyono]

Yep. Big shift north on the 0z UKMET. These models man...

think I am raising the BS flag on this. The system appears to have totally dissipated. I'd say maybe a 10% chance of regeneration at most

I think it's much higher than that. The Bay of Campeche will be quite favorable for this system to regenerate there. We'll see what the Euro says in a few hours.

not sure there will be anything left to regenerate

[hd44]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017082000/gfs_midRH_watl_10.png

It should get better conditions Tuesday. I'd say it will re develop. Probably a 60% shot.

[South Texas Storms]

There should at least be a wave once it gets there. I'm thinking its chances to redevelop are around 50%.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Image please

00z

[Cpv17]

NAVGEM into the middle TX coast.

[Cpv17]

Euro is coming in farther north again through hour 120.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like the 0z Euro is going to come in just a bit south of the 0z UKMET. It makes landfall north of Tampico as a strengthening TS Friday night. It's the farthest north it's shown Harvey since the run that took it just off TX a few nights ago.

[Cpv17]

It has definitely become clear to me that the models have not settled on a final solution. Still much uncertainty remains.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Icon model re spins up the wave
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=15.2;-81.3; ... =0QEQYp_5B

[bamajammer4eva]

It has definitely become clear to me that the models have not settled on a final solution. Still much uncertainty remains.

It's even worse since now we're back to the ole 'its gotta (re)develop first' then maybe models will get a handle on it.

[South Texas Storms]

NAM, NAVGEM, UKMET, and the Euro all shifted north at 0z while the GFS and Canadian shifted south. Still lots of uncertainty with this system. Anywhere from Veracruz to Corpus is still in play in my opinion.

[Alyono]

not that GFS and NAVGEM will be weaken since it is a wave, no assimilation of the NHC intensity is provided in the model fields (I believe this is the case, I know NAVGEM uses a bogus vortex)

[hohnywx]

NAM, NAVGEM, UKMET, and the Euro all shifted north at 0z while the GFS and Canadian shifted south. Still lots of uncertainty with this system. Anywhere from Veracruz to Corpus is still in play in my opinion.

Thank you for the concise summary!

[perk]

NAM, NAVGEM, UKMET, and the Euro all shifted north at 0z while the GFS and Canadian shifted south. Still lots of uncertainty with this system. Anywhere from Veracruz to Corpus is still in play in my opinion.

Very well said.

[stormreader]

NAM, NAVGEM, UKMET, and the Euro all shifted north at 0z while the GFS and Canadian shifted south. Still lots of uncertainty with this system. Anywhere from Veracruz to Corpus is still in play in my opinion.

And even after Harvey-Low-Remnants enter the southern GOM you may not have the rock solid short range model agreement that we became used to the last couple of years (and even a couple of weeks ago with Franklin). The atmosphere dynamics might not be that simple in the GOM this time around. Also, the storm will be moving at some type of NW direction. It will approach the coast at an angle. Models could even be in general agreement, but a slight difference in angle forecast could make a 100-150 mile difference along the coast.

[stormlover2013]

Heck also we have no really center, so wherever center forms if it does will be interesting