ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm4u]

18z gfs developed it off the east coast

Lots of similarities with Gert. Take a look at what was said back when 99l pre Gert was in the same area with no model support from Euro or GFS.

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http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=85&t=118925&start=1180

But model support was on and off whereas with 92L the GFS and Euro haven't shown development in days!

[BeRad954]

anyone else having issues with the floater for 92L

Try the GOES 16 SLIDER site, awesome addition!
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Miami Storm Tracker]

at least a decent amount of convection firing the evening.

[WeatherHoon]

I'm really not sure what to think at this moment. If 92L does somehow make it and develop, I can't imagine it being anything more than a weak tropical storm.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it's consolidating near the 850 vortex and may be trying to form some kind of surface reflection there too, it's also in a low shear environment with the ULL moving to its north not at it but in tandem which could keep the shear low until Florida if that continues so those that are writing this off might be surprised by Monday or sooner

[Hurricaneman]

With model support I predict the chances go up to 30% for 2 days and 50% for 5 days

[hd44]

Firing popcorn convection and shear seems low. This can lower the pressures and it is a process that could lead to development.

[AtlanticWind]

With model support I predict the chances go up to 30% for 2 days and 50% for 5 days

Nope at 10/20

[AutoPenalti]

It has 500-600 miles to consolidate and intensify, plenty of time.

[stormreader]

Looks like it's consolidating near the 850 vortex and may be trying to form some kind of surface reflection there too, it's also in a low shear environment with the ULL moving to its north not at it but in tandem which could keep the shear low until Florida if that continues so those that are writing this off might be surprised by Monday or sooner

The wave does look very healthy tonight! Looking at sat, seems like it's trying to develop a center further south than model runs initialize. Don't know if that's what you mean when you say the 850 mb area. Anyway, if it's does organize near the south end of convection, I don't know if that would have an impact on a possible S Fl landfall. But I like the way it looks tonight.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Looks like it's consolidating near the 850 vortex and may be trying to form some kind of surface reflection there too, it's also in a low shear environment with the ULL moving to its north not at it but in tandem which could keep the shear low until Florida if that continues so those that are writing this off might be surprised by Monday or sooner

The wave does look very healthy tonight! Looking at sat, seems like it's trying to develop a center further south than model runs initialize. Don't know if that's what you mean when you say the 850 mb area. Anyway, if it's does organize near the south end of convection, I don't know if that would have an impact on a possible S Fl landfall. But I like the way it looks tonight.

It seems 92L seems to face what Gert has happened before: competing south and north vorticities.

[Nimbus]

The second ULL is starting to fill in so it looks like another Gert scenario.
Track is closer to Florida this time and maybe a little slower so might have a chance at becoming a hurricane before the north turn.

[GCANE]

Another GFS fail.
It was supposed to get wiped by the 355K PV streamer at this position.
NOT.
Now its on the SW side of the ULL - classic position for development.
Convection firing off.
However, some mid-level dry air to the west it needs to shake off.

[GCANE]

Looks like a hot tower fired off near DMAX very close to the CoC.
Leaving a large area of cirrus in its wake.

[jlauderdal]

Another GFS fail.
It was supposed to get wiped by the 355K PV streamer at this position.
NOT.
Now its on the SW side of the ULL - classic position for development.
Convection firing off.
However, some mid-level dry air to the west it needs to shake off.

im hugging nhc probabilities in the next few two's regardless of what models show either way

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of
Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of
days, but they could become slightly more conducive for development
by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or
Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ronjon]

NHC probs look a little low considering the heavy convection and apparent circulation on the north side of the wave. Shear looks to have decreased too.

[Emmett_Brown]

Convection looking slightly more consolidated. First couple of frames of Vis satellite show perhaps a weak LLC near 22.2N, 67.1W?

[jlauderdal]

NHC probs look a little low considering the heavy convection and apparent circulation on the north side of the wave. Shear looks to have decreased too.

seems a little low considering its hanging tough and conditions appear to be improving over time..guess they are banking on this thing weakening to the point that it well be weakened to the point it cant take advantage of better conditions ahead

[xironman]

NHC probs look a little low considering the heavy convection and apparent circulation on the north side of the wave. Shear looks to have decreased too.

Yup