ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Convection looking slightly more consolidated. First couple of frames of Vis satellite show perhaps a weak LLC near 22.2N, 67.1W?

You were very close to the 12z Best Track position.

AL, 92, 2017082012, , BEST, 0, 220N, 670W, 25, 1012, DB

[nativefloridian]

Convection looking slightly more consolidated. First couple of frames of Vis satellite show perhaps a weak LLC near 22.2N, 67.1W?

You were very close to the 12z Best Track position.

AL, 92, 2017082012, , BEST, 0, 220N, 670W, 25, 1012, DB

What does DB mean?

[Hurricaneman]

Convection looking slightly more consolidated. First couple of frames of Vis satellite show perhaps a weak LLC near 22.2N, 67.1W?

You were very close to the 12z Best Track position.

AL, 92, 2017082012, , BEST, 0, 220N, 670W, 25, 1012, DB

What does DB mean?

Disturbance aka tropical wave

[NDG]

The ULL just to the NW of it has weakened some during the past 24 hrs, the GFS did not showed that.

[boca]

Florida threat?

[Steve H.]

I think if the convection keeps building (some popcorn and inflow starting to show) this might actually may have a chance to develop.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

The ULL just to the NW of it has weakened some during the past 24 hrs, the GFS did not showed that.

Yep and this looks like it's starting to develop and may become a tropical storm before the Bahamas

[Hurricaneman]

I think if the convection keeps building (some popcorn and inflow starting to show) this might actually may have a chance to develop.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

It's actually showing signs of a developing low

[gatorcane]

I agree this looks to be possibly redeveloping...LLC at 67.5N 22W. Dev chances look higher than NHC has them

[NDG]

The ULL just to the NW of it has weakened some during the past 24 hrs, the GFS did not showed that.

Yep and this looks like it's starting to develop and may become a tropical storm before the Bahamas

Both GFS and ECMWF show that during the next 24-48 hrs the ULL will start re-strengthening again and start moving more WSW as the tropical wave moves underneath, shredding it apart as it nears the Bahamas. Now we just have to see and wait if that really happens, especially if the ULL does not strengthen as they show, could make a big difference. Better UL conditions in 72 hrs.

[NDG]

A definite weak broad circulation this morning with 92L, but getting too close to the small ULL. Today is when the models show the surface vorticity start falling apart as it picks up speed.

[LarryWx]

This doesn't look to me to be organizing too quickly, if at all, with the convection almost all to the east of the somewhat naked LLC. This suggests pretty healthy westerly shear. Am I looking at this correctly?

[ObsessedMiami]

I'm sure the SFL planners are anxious. Even if you have a tropical storm into metro Dade and Broward it sets into motion certain operations and this forecast is so iffy that if it does develop they won't have much time to react.

Typical damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.

[Steve H.]

Yeah there is some westerly shear that it's encountering. It's not that overly inhibiting, but it's there. We'll see what it looks like tonight . I don't think the south Florida media is even thinking about it this morning.

[stormreader]

A definite weak broad circulation this morning with 92L, but getting too close to the small ULL. Today is when the models show the surface vorticity start falling apart as it picks up speed.

Your point about the surface vorticity and the small ULL must be the factors in the NHC low percentage forecast for development. BTW thats a beautiful shot.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection looking slightly more consolidated. First couple of frames of Vis satellite show perhaps a weak LLC near 22.2N, 67.1W?

You were very close to the 12z Best Track position.

AL, 92, 2017082012, , BEST, 0, 220N, 670W, 25, 1012, DB

There's clearly a low-level vorticity maximum there. It doesn't look to be closed in the Earth-relative sense though. For that vortex to intensify, convection would need to develop and sustain close to the vorticity maximum. Sometimes these small ULLs to the west of disturbances can actually help initiate convection. If convection does persist, it will help to then erode the ULL, and thereby lessen the vertical wind shear.

All that being said, there is a reason the NHC only gives this a 10/20% chance for genesis! Shear and a lot of mid-level dry air aren't helping sustain convection.

[Emmett_Brown]

92L is moving rapidly, which is preventing organization as well (keeping it elongated, unable to close off). Once it slows down tonight and tomorrow, we could see some further development.

[NDG]

92L is moving rapidly, which is preventing organization as well (keeping it elongated, unable to close off). Once it slows down tonight and tomorrow, we could see some further development.

Both the GFS and Euro do not show it to slow down, if anything they both show picking up speed during the next 36-48 hrs until it near the FL Peninsula.

[Hurricaneman]

Needs to be watched because it's closing off a llc and the ULL is weakening and filling in, hope they don't cancel recon again

[SFLcane]

Needs to be watched because it's closing off a llc and the ULL is weakening and filling in, hope they don't cancel recon again

Even the cmc didn't do much with it till it was in southern Bahamas. I suspect they might cancel recon again but lets see what the afternoon models show.