ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[p1nheadlarry]

. Only 3 cat 5's have hit the US in modern history. 4's are also pretty rare, and heck a cat 3 hasn't hit in 12 years- so yes they are rare too. Many people alive today will never again see what happened in Andrews particular case.

Go through South Florida hurricane history and look at what happened from the 1920's to about 1950. MULTIPLE Cat 4 landfalls and a cat 5 landfall..this year or 10 years from now we could go into another active landfall cycle, it's happened before and will happen again.

Those more inclined to believe in Unicorns may not be interested, but I just stumbled on a new thread in Talkin' Tropics created by Tolakram aptly named "Andrew". Next Thursday will be the 25th Anniversary. With 92L pushing westward while impressively fighting unlikely conditions, some may wish to skip the Netflix and watch the (2 hr. Channel 4) video over in the new Andrew thread. (Maybe that could serve as a collective spot for others wishing to share or have any Andrew related photographs or video?)

I'll have to do that. There's a video of just the Norcross bits. There's a news clip of a kid saying he'd surf until "the cops dragged him out," and Norcross in the studio quips, "no they will not drag him out, the cops don't care if that boy lives or dies."

But to keep things on topic, 92L doesn't seem any more disorganized than Harvey does right now. Harvey got the 1-2 combo of dry air and shear, whereas 92L seems to have fought most of the dry air off.

[TheStormExpert]

What really has me questioning if this ever recovers is the fact that every storm to date this season has been either short-live, weak, or both. In fact I really bet 92L was a depression for about a day two up until earlier today but the NHC likes to wait awhile with systems like this heading into unfavorable conditions.

[AxaltaRacing24]

What really has me questioning if this ever recovers is the fact that every storm to date this season has been either short-live, weak, or both. In fact I really bet 92L was a depression for about a day two up until earlier today but the NHC likes to wait awhile with systems like this heading into unfavorable conditions.

It might still be close to a TD. But they are going to hold off until it shows promise.

[Hammy]

What really has me questioning if this ever recovers is the fact that every storm to date this season has been either short-live, weak, or both. In fact I really bet 92L was a depression for about a day two up until earlier today but the NHC likes to wait awhile with systems like this heading into unfavorable conditions.

It might still be close to a TD. But they are going to hold off until it shows promise.

I haven't really seen any solid evidence this has ever been closed. Buoy report a few days ago had still winds to the south, but no west winds, and that was about the most organized it's been--after that the best it had was winds out of the south or southeast--no surface-relative inflow from the west or southwest.

[Steve]

One thing I am noticing...the large upper low to the NNE of invest doesn't seem to be digging SW like the GFS shows and the PV streamer low to the NNE seems to be moving south. The streamer low should start to move SSW soon according to the GFS then eventually SW then W.

Harvey looks a little more organized on that map. Conditions ahead might be more conducive than previously thought.

If Harvey is more organized and manages to get stronger that should induce even more unfavorable conditions over it.

Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure if it's just interaction, but there was a nose up NW for 92L over the last few hours. If that's not closer to the center and just shear induced, I might agree. But there are a couple of issues. By pulling a little more N than Harvey which is more going west, that's creating separation. Also, I don't think Harvey is going to get all that big. Granted, with the ULL pulling away and that nice sweet spot just behind it in the W Caribbean, I think it could tighten up. But it wouldn't really get all that "big" unless it sat in the W Gulf for at least a couple days. Similarly 92L is pretty small. It could get big in the open ocean north of 25/26. But the modeling looks like it is going to stay small as well. So with enough separation, it becomes irrelevant. 92L has to deal with about 3 days of environmental factors way more brutal than potential outflow or interference from Harvey.

[Blown Away]

Not bad for something that supposed to be getting destroyed now...

[sma10]

I realize the environment for 92L is not ideal but it certainly has now passed the worst of that hellacious tutt, and am i crazy or does the impending ull look a little less than ... robust?

[Craters]

One thing I am noticing...the large upper low to the NNE of invest doesn't seem to be digging SW like the GFS shows and the PV streamer low to the NNE seems to be moving south. The streamer low should start to move SSW soon according to the GFS then eventually SW then W.

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention the way I should have been, but the cloud signature around that that ULL entering the eastern Gulf sure seems to be amazingly well defined and abnormally huge ...

[Alyono]

SSDs satellite site is not updating

[AxaltaRacing24]

SSDs satellite site is not updating

Just did. Appears to be some outflow to the west?

[Hurricaneman]

SSDs satellite site is not updating

For the next 12 to 24 hrs this should be in a low shear environment but from 24 to 72 hrs should have moderate shear so this absolutely needs to be watched from Florida to Nova Scotia

On to this, it just updated and looks really good right now, could form a well defined low while in the low shear

[Evil Jeremy]

SSDs satellite site is not updating

Just did

Indeed, and I must say 92L is looking healthier now than about 3 hours ago. There's been a notable flare up of convection in the NE quad.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Not too bad considering it was "on its death bed" most of the day.

[Hurricaneman]

SSDs satellite site is not updating

Just did

Indeed, and I must say 92L is looking healthier now than about 3 hours ago. There's been a notable flare up of convection in the NE quad.

It's out of the TUTT but in 24 hrs might end up in the wake of an ULL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I honestly did not expect 92L to have its convection as close to the center as it does now. Water vapor shows the ull nne of it slowing in motion, so 92L may sneak away from it. However, there is another ull diving down to the nnw of 92L. The million dollar question is whether whatever survives of 92 regenerates in the Bahamas. This makes it a pretty challenging forecast for a learner like me. I've certainly developed an appreciation over the years for the complexity of tropical forecasting. I was 16 years old during 2004, and have learned an amazing amount from here and meted since then- specifically since Charley got me interested in tropical meteorology.

[Frank2]

ULL about to impact what is left of 92...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[chaser1]

ULL about to impact what is left of 92...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

Perhaps; I'm not seeing the ULL dropping due south but beginning to drop a little southwestward. With a little time, I believe the I'LL will then be shunted west then shunted more to the NNW and caught back up into the westerlies with upper level ridging slowly building underneath. Still too early to know how much of 92L will be left following another 36-48 hours of this, but I'd be very wary if something did.

[SootyTern]

I see the slightly SW movement of the ULL, too. It is closing in on 92L, but no longer appears to be heading south right towards it. What is the position of the ULL with regards to 92L that we have to watch out for in terms of intensification?

[otowntiger]

ULL about to impact what is left of 92...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

Wow talk about a hostile looking Atlantic basin. I really don't think 92l will ever amount to anything at all to worry about. Way way too many things to overcome.

[otowntiger]

. Only 3 cat 5's have hit the US in modern history. 4's are also pretty rare, and heck a cat 3 hasn't hit in 12 years- so yes they are rare too. Many people alive today will never again see what happened in Andrews particular case.

Go through South Florida hurricane history and look at what happened from the 1920's to about 1950. MULTIPLE Cat 4 landfalls and a cat 5 landfall..this year or 10 years from now we could go into another active landfall cycle, it's happened before and will happen again.

granted it was an anamously busy 10-15 years in Florida for cat fours, if in fact they were all truly 4's, but still only one cat 5 every 50 years is pretty uncommon.

. And by the way all this talk is moot because 92l will be a struggling open wave most of its life.