ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

Is it time for Bones to make the call?
Wxman, how bout it?

No bones about it..........yet

[Nimbus]

You can see some low level cloud motion in the northwestern corner of the system, but I doubt there is much of a west wind if any. Have to wait to see what is left after the encounter with the second ULL.

[Emmett_Brown]

Taking a look at the water vapor image, it looks like shear has relaxed a bit, at least temporarily. Now, can 92L take advantage of the respite. Looking a bit disorganized at the moment, but some new convection firing.

[Emmett_Brown]

Is it time for Bones to make the call?
Wxman, how bout it?

No bones about it..........yet

Agreed. This is as boneless as a chicken nugget in a toddlers happy meal. Too much energy still left in this one...

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

As i expected before, TUTT is now a threat once again for 92 and it's taking a toll now. (Okay, now it's back again...)

[Happy Pelican]

Is it time for Bones to make the call?
Wxman, how bout it?

No bones about it..........yet

Agreed. This is as boneless as a chicken nugget in a toddlers happy meal. Too much energy still left in this one...

Agreed. The energy is there but will it be enough. I know it's only the CMC but seems we shouldn't write this one off just yet. I have a uneasy feeling about this.

[Bocadude85]

Go through South Florida hurricane history and look at what happened from the 1920's to about 1950. MULTIPLE Cat 4 landfalls and a cat 5 landfall..this year or 10 years from now we could go into another active landfall cycle, it's happened before and will happen again.

granted it was an anamously busy 10-15 years in Florida for cat fours, if in fact they were all truly 4's, but still only one cat 5 every 50 years is pretty uncommon.

. And by the way all this talk is moot because 92l will be a struggling open wave most of its life.

Why would it be moot? 92L has nothing to do with past hurricane history. The point of the conversation was that we could enter a active landfall cycle at anytime like we did in the 1920's, and when we do those major hurricane landfalls won't seem as rare.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 13:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 12:50:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°35'N 67°34'W (13.5833N 67.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 348 statute miles (560 km) to the SSW (197°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 17kts (~ 19.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 186° at 17kts (From the S at ~ 19.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 332m (1,089ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 15 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) which was observed 142 nautical miles (163 statute miles) to the NE (55°) from the flight level center at 10:55:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[otowntiger]

granted it was an anamously busy 10-15 years in Florida for cat fours, if in fact they were all truly 4's, but still only one cat 5 every 50 years is pretty uncommon.

. And by the way all this talk is moot because 92l will be a struggling open wave most of its life.

Why would it be moot? 92L has nothing to do with past hurricane history. The point of the conversation was that we could enter a active landfall cycle at anytime like we did in the 1920's, and when we do those major hurricane landfalls won't seem as rare.

I was referring to the talk within this 92l thread for comparing the situation to Andrew- in my opinion and from what I recall the two environmental set ups aren't at all the same. There will be no cat 4 or 5 coming out of 92l, or anything remotely close.

[psyclone]

92L looks terrible....heavily damaged by shear. But it's still worth checking in on everyday just to see if anything's changed.

[otowntiger]

92L looks terrible....heavily damaged by shear. But it's still worth checking in on everyday just to see if anything's changed.

I shouldn't say it, because it could prove me wrong, but sure looks like it's about to dissipate. and that'll be a good thing based on its current projected path.

[OuterBanker]

Is it time for Bones to make the call?
Wxman, how bout it?

It looks as if I've spoken too soon again. Just like I did with Gert.
Just as I thought that it would be another Napoleon storm (blown apart) it seems to revive the LLC and convection over the center.

It's still not looking good, but neither did Gert. It also looks like it's passing over the 60/20 line almost exactly where Gert did.

And to be honest the GFS and Euro haven’t done as bad as we think. There really hasn't been too much with this.

Finally, as always mother nature will have the last laugh.

[psyclone]

92L looks terrible....heavily damaged by shear. But it's still worth checking in on everyday just to see if anything's changed.

I shouldn't say it, because it could prove me wrong, but sure looks like it's about to dissipate. and that'll be a good thing based on its current projected path.

you have to respect the calendar this time of year. we've seen laugh worthy disturbances suddenly blossom after days of struggling when they find a pocket of favorable conditions. I'm not suggesting that's going to happen here but it's always possible. Recall Hermine of last year...or even Gert this year.

[MGC]

Despite 92L ugly duckling appearance this morning, it should not be written off. Far too often I've seen disturbances battered by hostile conditions explode when things get right. I'd be paying close attention to 92L until every last cloud poofs......MGC

[NDG]

92L still has a nice vorticity and low level moisture envelope, still needs to be watched as it moves over the central & western Bahamas, last night's Euro paints a better UL environment near that area by early next week.

[CourierPR]

[quote="NDG"]92L still has a nice vorticity and low level moisture envelope, still needs to be watched as it moves over the central & western Bahamas, last night's Euro paints a better UL environment near that area by early next week.

Met. Joe Bastardi, stated essentially the same earlier today.

[GCANE]

Judging by the shear over Harvey, something appears IMHO going on with the ULLs that GFS and possibly other models are not factoring in.
Looking at VIS, ULL winds over Harvey are coming out of the NW, GFS has it out of the NE.
I need to look at this more.

[Weather150]

I thinks odds get dropped even more at 2pm, if not stay the same.

[chaser1]

I see the slightly SW movement of the ULL, too. It is closing in on 92L, but no longer appears to be heading south right towards it. What is the position of the ULL with regards to 92L that we have to watch out for in terms of intensification?

Well, the entire interplay between 92L and the sisters Sledge (and Hammer) cut-off lows to it's northeast and northwest, is rather interesting. You know that 'ol expression "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger" lol? Well, in a half sense there's sort of an element of truth in this case too. Don't get me wrong, 92L is not thriving but IS clinging to life. The cut-off low to the northeast is aiding the east and southeast ventilation of 92L and the cut-off low to the northwest though contributing to the overall upper shear environment....certainly is a contributing factor towards the overall difluent conditions aloft. To answer your question though, it's the proximity and orientation of this cut-off to the northwest of 92L that will be the biggest factor toward conditions becoming more/less favorable for 92L (somewhat dry air is probably a somewhat inhibiting factor as well). I see this cut-off now much more westward than south. If so, then this westward in tandem motion would imply the upper shear shouldn't increase any further but still essentially unfavorable. If the cut-off were to either move west a little faster than 92L, or the cut-off gain a little latitude by getting pulled a bit more WNW'ward, then upper level shear would lessen "perhaps" enough to better allow 92L to develop vertically and without the continuous buzz-saw tearing away it's energetic & persistant convection. I think that starting tomorrow the cut-off will begin to gain a little latitude and distance from 92L. Probably not enough to suddenly create a favorable environment, but perhaps enough to be a less inhibiting factor and where a number of other variables (surface pressures, SST's, speed of motion, humidity/dry air etc) could begin to play a larger role for cyclogenesis.

[chaser1]

Okay, THAT was wordy?! I suppose the short answer should have been: "if the cut-off low distances itself from 92L, there's a better chance of it developing" LOL