ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

miami nws, keep in mind they are literally just down the hall from nhc


EXTENDED FORECAST

THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME, THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 20
MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NHC IS GIVING
THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL RESIDENCE AND VISITORS
OR SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

This doesn't look good at lower levels right now I don't expect much deepening until day 4 once near the Bahamas

[caneseddy]

miami nws, keep in mind they are literally just down the hall from nhc


EXTENDED FORECAST

THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME, THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 20
MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NHC IS GIVING
THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL RESIDENCE AND VISITORS
OR SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Change in tone from this morning when they weren't as bullish with this (Blown Away posted the snippet earlier today)

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172007
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 29 20170817
195700 1341N 05608W 8432 01561 0081 +180 +174 069030 031 029 000 00
195730 1340N 05607W 8437 01555 0080 +181 +172 077030 030 027 000 00
195800 1339N 05606W 8429 01562 0078 +185 +160 077029 030 026 000 00
195830 1338N 05605W 8433 01558 0078 +185 +152 073029 029 027 000 00
195900 1337N 05603W 8431 01564 0079 +183 +164 072030 031 028 000 00
195930 1336N 05602W 8424 01567 0078 +182 +165 074031 032 028 000 00
200000 1335N 05601W 8434 01559 0080 +180 +166 077031 032 026 000 00
200030 1334N 05600W 8429 01562 0083 +178 +157 074031 031 028 002 03
200100 1333N 05559W 8437 01555 0085 +176 +152 075030 031 029 001 03
200130 1332N 05558W 8429 01565 0088 +174 +148 076030 030 027 000 01
200200 1331N 05557W 8430 01562 0084 +178 +158 083031 032 027 000 00
200230 1330N 05556W 8433 01559 //// +182 //// 087033 033 029 000 01
200300 1329N 05555W 8432 01561 //// +185 //// 085032 033 029 000 01
200330 1328N 05554W 8429 01561 //// +185 //// 082032 032 029 000 01
200400 1327N 05553W 8433 01554 //// +187 //// 083032 033 029 000 01
200430 1325N 05551W 8434 01555 //// +185 //// 079031 034 030 000 01
200500 1324N 05550W 8432 01556 0076 +184 +164 075031 031 031 000 00
200530 1323N 05550W 8433 01555 0076 +185 +163 078032 033 028 000 00
200600 1322N 05549W 8432 01557 0073 +185 +161 083033 034 027 000 00
200630 1321N 05548W 8429 01557 0070 +190 +154 083032 034 028 000 03
$$
;

[AtlanticWind]

miami nws, keep in mind they are literally just down the hall from nhc


EXTENDED FORECAST

THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME, THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 20
MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NHC IS GIVING
THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL RESIDENCE AND VISITORS
OR SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Oh darn, I have to monitor this now

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172017
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 30 20170817
200700 1319N 05547W 8434 01554 0069 +195 +161 085031 031 028 000 00
200730 1318N 05546W 8429 01556 0065 +195 +165 088029 030 025 001 00
200800 1317N 05545W 8438 01548 0068 +188 +182 091026 030 021 000 01
200830 1315N 05545W 8430 01556 0072 +182 +182 096021 023 018 000 05
200900 1314N 05544W 8429 01556 0068 +185 +175 100020 020 017 000 00
200930 1312N 05544W 8433 01554 0068 +189 +173 100022 022 015 000 00
201000 1310N 05544W 8435 01553 0065 +194 +169 107019 022 014 000 00
201030 1309N 05544W 8430 01557 0067 +195 +162 120015 017 015 000 03
201100 1307N 05544W 8425 01560 0067 +193 +162 116015 016 018 000 00
201130 1306N 05545W 8434 01553 0068 +191 +164 112015 015 022 000 00
201200 1304N 05545W 8433 01554 0067 +191 +171 112012 014 024 000 00
201230 1303N 05546W 8436 01550 0058 +206 +163 140014 014 026 000 03
201300 1301N 05547W 8430 01553 0058 +202 +165 145014 014 028 000 03
201330 1300N 05548W 8433 01549 0054 +208 +158 161015 015 028 000 00
201400 1259N 05549W 8425 01556 0055 +195 +165 156012 017 029 000 01
201430 1258N 05550W 8425 01557 //// +192 //// 188002 007 034 002 01
201500 1256N 05551W 8427 01556 0061 +420 +420 315001 004 034 024 00
201530 1255N 05552W 8436 01544 0064 +468 +468 306003 006 031 056 03
201600 1254N 05553W 8435 01545 0089 +483 +483 301005 008 /// /// 03
201630 1252N 05554W 8435 01549 0089 +259 //// 307018 020 027 005 01
$$
;

Pressure 1005mb.

[Weatherboy1]

miami nws, keep in mind they are literally just down the hall from nhc


EXTENDED FORECAST

THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME, THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 20
MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NHC IS GIVING
THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL RESIDENCE AND VISITORS
OR SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Had a chance to visit both offices when they had their off-season open house. Neat tour! But as for the story of the day, 92 has a nice structure to it right now. But we haven't really seen significant bursts of very deep convective around the presumed center. If that were to happen overnight, I imagine we could have a TD by this time tomorrow. Will see.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172027
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 31 20170817
201700 1251N 05555W 8426 01560 //// +177 //// 307018 019 027 002 01
201730 1249N 05556W 8440 01548 0068 +188 +176 312018 019 029 001 03
201800 1248N 05555W 8438 01551 0073 +185 +177 309016 018 /// /// 03
201830 1247N 05554W 8418 01572 0073 +185 +167 309016 018 /// /// 03
201900 1249N 05552W 8440 01550 0072 +189 +163 300012 015 025 002 00
201930 1250N 05551W 8434 01555 0074 +182 +174 251007 011 025 002 03
202000 1252N 05551W 8430 01555 0073 +181 +174 224012 014 025 001 03
202030 1253N 05551W 8438 01543 0068 +185 +174 230003 012 039 005 03
202100 1255N 05552W 8429 01553 0059 +197 +166 152006 008 037 012 00
202130 1257N 05552W 8433 01551 0063 +188 +179 106005 007 032 002 03
202200 1258N 05552W 8421 01559 0059 +191 +180 130004 006 033 007 00
202230 1300N 05553W 8448 01534 0060 +189 +181 123009 011 029 002 03
202300 1301N 05552W 8429 01553 0057 +198 +174 131014 015 027 001 00
202330 1302N 05550W 8440 01543 0059 +197 +171 125017 018 026 000 03
202400 1303N 05549W 8421 01566 0061 +201 +167 127017 019 021 000 00
202430 1304N 05548W 8431 01555 0061 +203 +163 128020 021 023 000 00
202500 1305N 05547W 8434 01555 0064 +201 +167 125019 020 020 000 00
202530 1307N 05545W 8432 01557 0068 +196 +169 131021 021 018 000 00
202600 1308N 05544W 8435 01556 0070 +194 +166 133021 021 019 000 00
202630 1309N 05543W 8429 01562 0070 +197 +165 127021 021 019 000 00
$$
;

37-39 kt SFMR.

[Mouton]

IMO this is on a path to the Straits or slightly north of them. Small size storm, potential for rapid development over warm water. Blocked to north for four days but that should change. Don't expect much development for two days till it gets close to warmer water soon at 20 mph forward speed. If it developes, it could be trouble.

Listen to the experts at the NHC for accurate info rather than my uninformed opinions.

[hd44]

18z... Across the board the shear predictions have significantly dropped today...

Shear dropping to 5kt by 120 hours is very favorable for quick intensification . The waters pretty darn hot there.

[Kazmit]

If it can make it through the next couple of days I see this becoming a potentially dangerous storm near the Bahamas. Could also make it into the gulf after that.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172037
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 32 20170817
202700 1310N 05542W 8435 01557 0073 +195 +165 124020 021 017 000 00
202730 1311N 05540W 8429 01565 0075 +192 +169 128021 022 017 000 00
202800 1312N 05539W 8433 01560 0075 +190 +175 121023 023 019 000 00
202830 1313N 05538W 8433 01561 0078 +189 +161 115024 024 018 000 00
202900 1314N 05537W 8432 01564 0082 +184 +169 116024 025 018 000 00
202930 1315N 05536W 8427 01568 0084 +181 +172 113025 026 017 000 00
203000 1316N 05534W 8436 01562 0087 +181 +168 114024 026 017 000 00
203030 1317N 05533W 8433 01566 0088 +183 +163 110024 025 016 000 00
203100 1318N 05532W 8429 01571 0094 +177 +149 109024 025 016 000 00
203130 1319N 05531W 8433 01568 0093 +177 +150 109024 025 017 000 01
203200 1320N 05530W 8437 01567 0092 +184 +149 107027 027 018 000 00
203230 1321N 05528W 8426 01578 0090 +190 +143 110026 027 018 000 00
203300 1322N 05527W 8436 01567 0094 +185 +134 107027 027 018 000 00
203330 1323N 05526W 8425 01581 0094 +185 +139 108026 027 017 000 00
203400 1324N 05525W 8433 01571 0093 +185 +140 109026 026 019 000 00
203430 1325N 05524W 8432 01575 0095 +185 +143 111025 026 018 000 00
203500 1326N 05522W 8431 01576 0094 +188 +150 111024 024 020 000 00
203530 1327N 05521W 8430 01576 0095 +185 +146 113024 024 020 000 00
203600 1328N 05520W 8430 01576 0096 +185 +141 114026 026 020 000 00
203630 1329N 05519W 8433 01575 0097 +185 +138 113027 028 020 000 00
$$
;

[ronjon]

92L looks impressive in structure on SAT - might even be a TD at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-rb-short.html

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172047
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 33 20170817
203700 1331N 05518W 8429 01579 0099 +181 +132 116027 027 021 000 00
203730 1332N 05516W 8432 01571 0095 +180 +163 114026 027 023 003 00
203800 1333N 05515W 8437 01567 0112 +262 +262 119028 030 029 008 00
203830 1334N 05514W 8433 01570 0114 +363 +363 121023 027 032 022 03
203900 1335N 05513W 8432 01575 0103 +426 +426 115026 027 022 027 00
203930 1336N 05512W 8425 01579 //// +184 //// 112026 027 023 001 01
204000 1337N 05510W 8436 01567 //// +181 //// 114026 027 022 000 01
204030 1338N 05509W 8431 01575 //// +171 //// 119026 027 023 001 01
204100 1339N 05508W 8433 01572 0097 +177 +170 121026 027 023 000 01
204130 1340N 05507W 8433 01573 0098 +178 +169 118027 028 023 000 00
204200 1341N 05505W 8432 01576 0098 +180 +154 118028 028 023 000 00
204230 1342N 05504W 8429 01579 0101 +180 +145 117027 027 023 000 00
204300 1343N 05503W 8434 01573 0098 +180 +155 117028 028 023 000 00
204330 1344N 05502W 8429 01578 0098 +180 +159 117028 028 024 000 00
204400 1345N 05501W 8438 01570 0099 +180 +160 118027 028 027 000 00
204430 1346N 05459W 8429 01579 0100 +180 +160 118028 028 025 000 00
204500 1347N 05458W 8432 01576 0100 +174 +162 117027 028 025 000 00
204530 1348N 05457W 8429 01579 //// +165 //// 116027 028 025 002 01
204600 1349N 05456W 8432 01577 0104 +174 +167 116028 028 025 000 00
204630 1350N 05455W 8433 01577 0104 +175 +167 115027 028 026 000 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

New convective burst going up at sunset. That's a good sign for development. Pretty close to a TC at this time, in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

New convection blowing up just west of LLC:

[OuterBanker]

Yes, looks like it's Florida bound. The ever present trough that protects you is gone. But, it takes the Carolina's out of it because the trough doesn't bring it our way.
So I guess there is a silver lining (if you live in the Carolina's).

[Dean4Storms]

Convective burst right now around what appears to me as a TD already, small wind field under the cirrus canopy but IMO it is already a TD.