ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The time to really watch this will be from late Sunday and after as that is when models intensify this system

[RL3AO]

Anything approaching the Western Caribbean, GOM, or western Atlantic needs to be watched closely. The eastern half of the basin is not looking the most favorable for intensification, but the western half sure is.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2017081618, , BEST, 0, 143N, 368W, 25, 1009, LO

[SoupBone]

This is most concerning for the Gulf Coast. I hope this doesn't become a trend.

[lsuhurricane]

Would have to agree. The Florida Strait appears to be the best guess for direction. Gulf looks decently favorable for some intensification should it make it there intact

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


The 1010 mb low embedded on a tropical wave centered at 14N35W
shows signs of gradual development. There is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

[drezee]

All,
It us important to realize what the Euro is showing. It is show an entity all the way though. Intensity shown doesn't really matter at this time. This is a real system that could be mush stronger than indicated. The alarm is it exists and travels toward the stares....watch it closely and take this time to create a hurricane plan.

[northjaxpro]

Best Track has 92L down to 1009 mb.

Looking at the latest models, it is beginning to trend more that 92L will just miss the Greater Antilles to the north. It will be a close call though. Will watch it closely of course.

[Frank2]

The current WV shows a very unfavorable upper air pattern. The TWO's have been unreliable recently, one indicating development and the next hedging that an invest might or might not, so I'd not get too anxious about anything out there right now.

The large ULL also appears to be a TUTT feature and that usually is not a sign for development...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

[gatorcane]

The current WV shows a very unfavorable upper air pattern. The TWO's have been unreliable recently, one indicating development and the next hedging that an invest might or might not, so I'd not get too anxious about anything out there right now.

The large ULL also appears to be a TUTT feature and that usually is not a sign for development...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

Frank that TUTT feature is not the one that models think will make conditions hostile. That feature should move west and weaken over the next 5 days and be located over the Gulf by the time 92L reaches the area. It is the upper-level low currently north of 92L that models think will drop SW and create a shear zone near the Lesser Antilles. I am skeptical this ULL will completely destroy 92l to be honest. Perhaps 91L developing will be what induces the shear over 92L.

[ronjon]

i'm expecting 92L to become a tropical cyclone prior to it reaching the LAs but then weakening thereafter until the Bahamas - at least that's what most models are showing now.

[Blown Away]

[Hurricaneman]

Looks pretty decent for a developing system

[jlauderdal]

Anything approaching the Western Caribbean, GOM, or western Atlantic needs to be watched closely. The eastern half of the basin is not looking the most favorable for intensification, but the western half sure is.

i would expect the models to start really blowing this thing up in the gulf/straits..looks to stay away from land unlike what we have seen in the past few years

[SoupBone]

Based upon current conditions, would it developing sooner have much of an effect on turning poleward sooner? I know that's typically the case with these systems, but if a high plants itself over Florida, is it going to shunt around it like some models are showing?

[Blown Away]

Gives and idea where the Pro's think our systems will go... For now 92L is no more than a TW heading for Fl Keys in 6 days...

[OuterBanker]

Just a question. Does NOAA fly as a courtesy to the islands or do the islands pay for the service. Or is there US interest in the Lesser Antilles.

[gatorcane]

I am guessing 91l becomes Harvey and this one becomes Irma. Irma that name sounds creepy!

[Bocadude85]

I would be very surprised if 92L never amounts to more then a tropical wave, I'm thinking tropical storm threat to the Bahamas/Florida in about a week.

[Hurricaneman]

I would be very surprised if 92L never amounts to more then a tropical wave, I'm thinking tropical storm threat to the Bahamas/Florida in about a week.

Maybe hurricane if conditions are decent