ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Recon

#741 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:04 pm

Looks like recon is a go for Monday let's see which vortex takes over
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#742 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:13 pm

Plane on route.

URNT15 KNHC 201710
AF302 0509A INVEST HDOB 13 20170820
170100 1559N 07218W 4276 07112 0402 -135 -161 093025 026 /// /// 03
170130 1559N 07221W 4278 07107 0402 -134 -170 097026 027 /// /// 03
170200 1559N 07224W 4278 07108 0402 -135 -169 099026 027 /// /// 03
170230 1559N 07227W 4278 07108 0402 -135 -164 094026 026 /// /// 03
170300 1559N 07230W 4279 07104 0402 -134 -171 093026 028 /// /// 03
170330 1559N 07233W 4279 07106 0402 -137 -184 093024 025 /// /// 03
170400 1559N 07236W 4277 07109 0402 -136 -172 093024 024 /// /// 03
170430 1559N 07239W 4278 07108 0402 -139 -198 097025 025 /// /// 03
170500 1559N 07241W 4278 07107 0402 -138 -195 097025 026 /// /// 03
170530 1559N 07244W 4277 07109 0402 -132 -183 094023 025 /// /// 03
170600 1558N 07247W 4278 07107 0402 -133 -184 096024 024 /// /// 03
170630 1558N 07250W 4277 07109 0401 -134 -200 094023 024 /// /// 03
170700 1558N 07253W 4278 07107 0401 -136 -222 093023 024 /// /// 03
170730 1558N 07256W 4275 07112 0401 -139 -207 093022 024 /// /// 03
170800 1558N 07259W 4277 07107 0400 -135 -214 099021 022 /// /// 03
170830 1558N 07302W 4281 07102 0400 -133 -208 102020 021 /// /// 03
170900 1558N 07304W 4279 07106 0401 -131 -255 100019 020 /// /// 03
170930 1558N 07307W 4278 07104 0399 -133 -226 109019 020 /// /// 03
171000 1558N 07310W 4278 07102 0397 -135 -216 113021 021 /// /// 03
171030 1558N 07313W 4283 07096 0398 -130 -213 099024 025 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#743 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:14 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#744 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:26 pm

URNT15 KNHC 201720
AF302 0509A INVEST HDOB 14 20170820
171100 1558N 07316W 4279 07103 0398 -135 -202 103027 029 /// /// 03
171130 1558N 07319W 4279 07103 0399 -138 -187 102030 031 /// /// 03
171200 1558N 07322W 4279 07104 0400 -140 -189 102029 031 /// /// 03
171230 1558N 07325W 4279 07103 0399 -139 -185 102027 029 /// /// 03
171300 1558N 07325W 4279 07103 0398 -136 -251 106024 025 /// /// 03
171330 1558N 07330W 4278 07102 0397 -135 -305 106024 024 /// /// 03
171400 1557N 07333W 4279 07101 0397 -138 -295 106024 025 /// /// 03
171430 1557N 07336W 4279 07099 0395 -138 -286 105023 024 /// /// 03
171500 1557N 07339W 4283 07092 0394 -136 -296 103024 024 /// /// 03
171530 1557N 07342W 4275 07103 0394 -134 -277 105024 025 /// /// 03
171600 1557N 07345W 4279 07097 0393 -134 -280 101026 026 /// /// 03
171630 1557N 07348W 4278 07099 0393 -139 -288 100026 027 /// /// 03
171700 1557N 07351W 4278 07098 0393 -136 -280 102026 026 /// /// 03
171730 1557N 07353W 4274 07107 0394 -138 -283 102026 026 /// /// 03
171800 1557N 07356W 4278 07101 0394 -136 -280 102027 028 /// /// 03
171830 1557N 07359W 4277 07101 0393 -137 -286 102028 028 /// /// 03
171900 1557N 07402W 4279 07097 0393 -138 -282 106029 029 /// /// 03
171930 1557N 07405W 4279 07095 0392 -137 -287 106030 030 /// /// 03
172000 1557N 07408W 4278 07097 0391 -136 -289 103031 031 /// /// 03
172030 1556N 07411W 4278 07099 0392 -135 -265 100032 032 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#745 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:28 pm

It would not take make much for it to become a TD with such a sharp trough if it is able to close a circulation, but the ULL will have to dramatically weaken or dissipate over the next 48 hrs.

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#746 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:29 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#747 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:31 pm

URNT15 KNHC 201730
AF302 0509A INVEST HDOB 15 20170820
172100 1556N 07414W 4281 07093 0392 -131 -241 101036 037 /// /// 03
172130 1556N 07417W 4277 07102 0394 -128 -234 099036 037 /// /// 03
172200 1556N 07420W 4279 07099 0395 -133 -193 096035 036 /// /// 03
172230 1556N 07423W 4272 07110 0395 -133 -162 105029 033 /// /// 03
172300 1556N 07426W 4279 07096 0394 -136 -174 114033 034 /// /// 03
172330 1556N 07428W 4279 07096 0394 -136 -169 116034 035 /// /// 03
172400 1556N 07431W 4276 07102 0394 -138 -166 123031 034 /// /// 03
172430 1556N 07434W 4277 07099 0393 -144 -186 134029 032 /// /// 03
172500 1556N 07437W 4281 07095 0392 -141 -230 130029 029 /// /// 03
172530 1556N 07440W 4279 07099 0394 -142 -222 124030 031 /// /// 03
172600 1556N 07443W 4275 07107 0395 -142 -207 123031 033 /// /// 03
172630 1556N 07446W 4278 07102 0396 -144 -224 116031 033 /// /// 03
172700 1555N 07449W 4278 07102 0395 -142 -207 118035 036 /// /// 03
172730 1555N 07452W 4273 07109 0394 -141 -159 128031 035 /// /// 03
172800 1555N 07454W 4279 07097 0394 -130 -157 127027 029 /// /// 03
172830 1555N 07457W 4278 07101 0395 -137 -147 124025 026 /// /// 03
172900 1555N 07500W 4299 07063 0392 -136 -145 122027 029 /// /// 03
172930 1555N 07503W 4404 06883 0384 -129 -136 125027 028 /// /// 03
173000 1554N 07505W 4500 06717 0375 -115 -137 134028 028 /// /// 03
173030 1553N 07508W 4610 06533 0365 -105 -136 138028 029 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#748 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:33 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Recon

#749 Postby StormTracker » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:35 pm

Yeah, let's just hope they don't change they're mind. I don't think they will because of proximity to the Bahamas & Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#750 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:36 pm

2 PM TWO up to 30% in 5 days

Satellite data indicate that a trough of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some strong
winds on its northeast side. Environmental conditions are expected
to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day
or two, but they could become slightly more conducive for
development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern
Bahamas or Florida. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#751 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:2 PM TWO up to 30% in 5 days

Satellite data indicate that a trough of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some strong
winds on its northeast side. Environmental conditions are expected
to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day
or two, but they could become slightly more conducive for
development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern
Bahamas or Florida. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


makes sense...supsect we see 20 40 next one maybe 50
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#752 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:38 pm

Here we go...watching closely
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#753 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:40 pm

I am leaning toward development but after it has moved past Florida recurving offshore the SE US. Not only is there some model support but seems storms like to develop with this type of track in years past especially once they get above 30N and out of the tropics.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#754 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:43 pm

URNT15 KNHC 201740
AF302 0509A INVEST HDOB 16 20170820
173100 1552N 07510W 4728 06338 0354 -096 -129 139028 029 /// /// 03
173130 1551N 07512W 4850 06139 0342 -085 -127 139028 029 /// /// 03
173200 1550N 07515W 4977 05938 0331 -066 -140 132028 029 /// /// 03
173230 1549N 07517W 5103 05744 0320 -046 -131 128030 031 /// /// 03
173300 1548N 07519W 5229 05548 0306 -036 -093 134030 031 /// /// 03
173330 1547N 07522W 5354 05361 0295 -024 -080 136030 030 /// /// 03
173400 1547N 07524W 5487 05165 0283 -013 -075 136031 031 /// /// 03
173430 1546N 07527W 5624 04968 0114 -005 -030 132030 031 /// /// 03
173500 1546N 07529W 5765 04769 0108 +010 -022 131029 031 /// /// 03
173530 1545N 07532W 5907 04571 0105 +023 -011 127026 027 /// /// 03
173600 1544N 07534W 6055 04370 0110 +034 -015 138021 023 /// /// 03
173630 1543N 07536W 6206 04170 0110 +046 -003 129020 021 /// /// 03
173700 1543N 07538W 6362 03969 0108 +061 +003 117022 023 /// /// 03
173730 1542N 07541W 6517 03771 0107 +074 +017 111022 023 /// /// 03
173800 1541N 07543W 6599 03667 0112 +075 +040 112021 022 /// /// 03
173830 1540N 07545W 6735 03502 0125 +080 +056 122024 025 /// /// 03
173900 1540N 07547W 6924 03267 0117 +096 +060 126023 024 024 000 03
173930 1539N 07549W 7082 03077 0111 +109 +067 125024 024 026 000 03
174000 1539N 07551W 7220 02915 0108 +120 +070 127023 024 026 000 00
174030 1538N 07553W 7364 02751 0114 +126 +086 128022 023 026 000 00
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#755 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:44 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#756 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:52 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 201750
AF302 0509A INVEST HDOB 17 20170820
174100 1537N 07554W 7491 02605 0116 +132 +097 133018 021 025 000 00
174130 1536N 07556W 7626 02453 0118 +137 +108 136016 017 024 000 00
174200 1536N 07558W 7767 02296 0117 +146 +111 128018 019 025 000 03
174230 1535N 07600W 7897 02156 0116 +157 +108 128019 020 /// /// 03
174300 1534N 07601W 8030 02015 0116 +163 +136 129020 021 /// /// 03
174330 1533N 07603W 8162 01874 0116 +172 +137 127020 022 /// /// 03
174400 1532N 07605W 8298 01733 0120 +176 +139 129022 023 /// /// 03
174430 1531N 07606W 8436 01588 0119 +183 +144 130021 021 /// /// 03
174500 1530N 07608W 8679 01352 0131 +189 +166 131023 025 /// /// 03
174530 1530N 07610W 9154 00887 0130 +212 +195 133026 026 /// /// 03
174600 1530N 07612W 9509 00551 0124 +229 +218 132025 026 /// /// 03
174630 1529N 07614W 9742 00333 0119 +243 +230 127024 026 /// /// 03
174700 1529N 07616W 9794 00285 0116 +249 +235 127024 026 /// /// 03
174730 1529N 07618W 9790 00286 0114 +248 +235 125024 025 /// /// 03
174800 1529N 07620W 9763 00313 0115 +245 +233 124025 026 /// /// 03
174830 1528N 07621W 9771 00303 0112 +246 +232 126024 026 027 000 00
174900 1527N 07622W 9772 00301 0111 +245 +231 124024 026 027 000 00
174930 1527N 07624W 9771 00298 0108 +244 +235 126023 025 027 000 00
175000 1526N 07625W 9773 00298 0109 +244 +232 128024 025 026 000 00
175030 1525N 07627W 9773 00298 0109 +243 +230 127024 025 026 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#757 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:54 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#758 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 1:03 pm

URNT15 KNHC 201800
AF302 0509A INVEST HDOB 18 20170820
175100 1524N 07628W 9769 00302 0110 +240 +231 125023 024 025 001 03
175130 1523N 07629W 9769 00302 0110 +240 +232 124022 023 025 000 00
175200 1522N 07631W 9773 00291 0103 +253 +232 124022 023 025 001 00
175230 1521N 07632W 9771 00293 0100 +260 +233 121021 022 025 000 00
175300 1520N 07633W 9777 00286 0100 +260 +233 124021 022 024 000 00
175330 1519N 07635W 9773 00292 0099 +260 +232 124021 022 024 000 00
175400 1518N 07636W 9772 00291 0098 +260 +234 122020 021 023 000 00
175430 1517N 07637W 9776 00287 0098 +260 +233 126021 022 023 000 03
175500 1516N 07639W 9773 00288 0097 +261 +232 124020 022 024 000 00
175530 1515N 07640W 9773 00288 0096 +265 +231 119020 020 022 000 00
175600 1514N 07641W 9775 00284 0093 +268 +227 123021 022 024 000 00
175630 1514N 07643W 9774 00284 0092 +274 +224 125022 023 024 000 00
175700 1513N 07645W 9772 00287 0094 +265 +230 116020 021 023 000 03
175730 1512N 07646W 9773 00286 0093 +265 +230 114020 021 022 000 00
175800 1511N 07647W 9774 00285 0093 +266 +231 105021 021 023 000 03
175830 1510N 07649W 9773 00285 0092 +269 +229 100021 021 023 000 00
175900 1509N 07650W 9774 00282 0091 +271 +225 100020 021 024 000 00
175930 1508N 07651W 9773 00284 0090 +275 +222 102019 020 024 000 03
180000 1506N 07652W 9773 00285 0090 +276 +224 106016 018 023 000 00
180030 1505N 07653W 9773 00286 0092 +276 +233 110012 015 020 000 03
$$
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Recon

#759 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2017 1:05 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#760 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 1:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:I am leaning toward development but after it has moved past Florida recurving offshore the SE US. Not only is there some model support but seems storms like to develop with this type of track in years past especially once they get above 30N and out of the tropics.


I agree gatorcane, I don't think we see much development prior to 92L reaching Florida.
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