ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

That HWRF run is very CMC like in many ways.

[davidiowx]

Could this pull an Ike and go SW into Cuba and then the NW Caribbean???


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It's impossible to tell. But those "I" names aren't usually something to overlook.

[sphelps8681]

Could this pull an Ike and go SW into Cuba and then the NW Caribbean???


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It's impossible to tell. But those "I" names aren't usually something to overlook.

Looks more like a Rita 2005.

[SFLcane]

Link to coamps run?

[GCANE]

Link to coamps run?

Here's organized by Date, Time, and System

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc


Here is the particular run for 92L

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... 2017081706

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance, looks to have shifted south:

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

With the strengthening ridge the setup looks a lot like Erika 2015.

[gatorcane]

00Z SFWMD graphic:

[junepath]

I had similar thoughts but wasn't Erika supposed to go UNDER the islands?

[caneseddy]

00Z SFWMD graphic:

I Expect tracks to continue shifting north and south but if it survives the trek through the TUTTs then it looks like the general track will be from South Florida in the north range to Cuba in the south range

Just an opinion

[stormreader]

00Z guidance, looks to have shifted south:

Don't see any hints in that chart of a recurve. Last I heard a solid recurve was expected in the extreme east GOM. Don't know, but I think 92l (Irma) will track further west than is expected.

[Bocadude85]

It's kind of strange..the 18z and 0z cycles seem to shift south and then the 6z and 12z cycles seem to shift north...no science here just an observation.

[Steve]

00Z guidance, looks to have shifted south:

**nixed image

Yeah. The early 00z Guidance has Mobile or Pensacola written all over that end game. I'm not sure that GFS Ensembles don't continue to shift a bit to the west. CMC had as much at the end of its 12z run. But it dipped south back over Cuba which I think also the HWRF did (which usually sucks early) whereas this guidance just kind of blows through the area. The reinforcing shot of ridge rolling off the SE about the time 92L is near 74/75W will tell us what happens. Some of the models at 500mb show kind of an odd shaped high coming down. The main Atlantic High, though vast and broad, has often exhibited a narrow shaped western angle rather than having a western "side" like they often do. So if the ridge coming down is narrow, you could see a move back up the Peninsula or West Coast of Florida. It's going to be cool to watch that evolution. GFS has a large low over Quebec moving East. It has the last isobar of the Atlantic high angled NW-NNW just along the East FL Coast. You can see that's why its ensembles want to bring it up FL.

The CMC's counter is that it's got 594+ heights over AL/GA which would not probably break down much until 92L was nudging up on it which is sort of what happens.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=120

It then builds the ridge back in off the Atlantic at 8 days and that gives 92L the sort of gentle NW to North push which brings it up to Mobile-Pensacola MSA. It swings 3 lows by across the north in the 10 day period. One of those is moving off now. Also looks like a mostly -NAO period (haven't checked that in a while).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=240

European is similar to the CMC but Harvey doesn't show up on the 500 until really about Day 9.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

[Bocadude85]

If anyone is bored the 0Z NAM is rolling.

[Steve]

If anyone is bored the 0Z NAM is rolling.

Yeah, but it doesn't go far enough out in time and at 84 hours it will be at the geographical edge of its range. It had its moments with Cindy. The NAM is usually at its best with systems at least 25 North.

[CrazyC83]

I had similar thoughts but wasn't Erika supposed to go UNDER the islands?

No. All the models had it going north of them, but it remained weak and disorganized that it stayed low.

[stormreader]

00Z guidance, looks to have shifted south:

**nixed image

Yeah. The early 00z Guidance has Mobile or Pensacola written all over that end game. I'm not sure that GFS Ensembles don't continue to shift a bit to the west. CMC had as much at the end of its 12z run. But it dipped south back over Cuba which I think also the HWRF did (which usually sucks early) whereas this guidance just kind of blows through the area. The reinforcing shot of ridge rolling off the SE about the time 92L is near 74/75W will tell us what happens. Some of the models at 500mb show kind of an odd shaped high coming down. The main Atlantic High, though vast and broad, has often exhibited a narrow shaped western angle rather than having a western "side" like they often do. So if the ridge coming down is narrow, you could see a move back up the Peninsula or West Coast of Florida. It's going to be cool to watch that evolution. GFS has a large low over Quebec moving East. It has the last isobar of the Atlantic high angled NW-NNW just along the East FL Coast. You can see that's why its ensembles want to bring it up FL.

The CMC's counter is that it's got 594+ heights over AL/GA which would not probably break down much until 92L was nudging up on it which is sort of what happens.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=120

It then builds the ridge back in off the Atlantic at 8 days and that gives 92L the sort of gentle NW to North push which brings it up to Mobile-Pensacola MSA. It swings 3 lows by across the north in the 10 day period. One of those is moving off now. Also looks like a mostly -NAO period (haven't checked that in a while).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=240

European is similar to the CMC but Harvey doesn't show up on the 500 until really about Day 9.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

Someone a couple of days ago mentioned Frederick '79 as a possible analog to 92l. If memory serves me, Frederick reeked from the E Carib often over Cuba before approaching Key West. Think it was at 75mph there, then making its ultimate landfall in Mobile as a very solid Cat 3.

[Bocadude85]

Not that it means much of anything but through 54 hours the 0Z NAM shreds 92L...also farther north then the 18Z. Harvey is significantly stronger this run also.

[Steve]

The track and outcome could overall be similar. I think the differences would be that 92L would probably be coming up from the South or SSE rather than the SE and that path David took through the big islands probably won't be repeated. Could we see a small, tight Cat 3 hitting around there though? Recent CMC runs and last night's 18z GFS Parallel run put it in play. I keep forgetting the GFS Parallel. I thought it was supposed to have taken over by now?