ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Gotta love the CMC...Develops everything and then sends 92L on an Ike like dive across Cuba. The development is sketchy but one thing each model is showing is that the ridge is STRONG!!!

[gatorcane]

Gotta love the CMC...Develops everything and then sends 92L on an Ike like dive across Cuba. The development is sketchy but one thing each model is showing is that the ridge is STRONG!!!

But there is a weakness at hour 186 as CONUS EC trough returns and so should start to feel that:

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep...Might go for the Ike/Charley combo tour package.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS seems to do away with the future 93L Major Hurricane idea... Crazy

[PTrackerLA]

12z CMC 240

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.2N 51.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2017 60 16.8N 52.8W 1010 33
1200UTC 19.08.2017 72 17.3N 56.6W 1009 34
0000UTC 20.08.2017 84 17.6N 60.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 20.08.2017 96 17.9N 63.3W 1007 37
0000UTC 21.08.2017 108 18.7N 66.3W 1005 44
1200UTC 21.08.2017 120 19.5N 69.1W 1001 48
0000UTC 22.08.2017 132 20.5N 72.0W 997 53
1200UTC 22.08.2017 144 21.1N 74.2W 998 54

Caribbean #2. Not sure how this intensifies over Hispañiola, though

[sma10]

UKMET doubling down and has shifted south:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.2N 51.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2017 60 16.8N 52.8W 1010 33
1200UTC 19.08.2017 72 17.3N 56.6W 1009 34
0000UTC 20.08.2017 84 17.6N 60.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 20.08.2017 96 17.9N 63.3W 1007 37
0000UTC 21.08.2017 108 18.7N 66.3W 1005 44
1200UTC 21.08.2017 120 19.5N 69.1W 1001 48
0000UTC 22.08.2017 132 20.5N 72.0W 997 53
1200UTC 22.08.2017 144 21.1N 74.2W 998 54

Interesting trend. I have a sense that we've been here before - and 5 days from now it will be a "will it or won't it" game, specifically referring to whether the system clears the northern coast of Hispaniola or not.

[stormlover2013]

can we see a image on UKMET

[Bocadude85]

I'm curious as to what the GFS would have shown had 92L stayed a little farther north and not plowed into Hispaniola. Is the ridge really going to be so strong that 92L dives WSW? Just a few days ago the models were showing hardly any ridging. I really do not put much faith into any of the models until we have a developed system.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I'm curious as to what the GFS would have shown had 92L stayed a little farther north and not plowed into Hispaniola. Is the ridge really going to be so strong that 92L dives WSW? Just a few days ago the models were showing hardly any ridging. I really do not put much faith into any of the models until we have a developed system.

Well the ridging does appear to be strong so who knows

[WeatherEmperor]

can we see a image on UKMET

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[hd44]

can we see a image on UKMET

[Blown Away]

Doesn't seem likely 91L/92L will coexist in the Caribbean together, got to think only one of those systems will win out, or maybe both never develop due to really strong HP... Now GFS drops 93L idea... Complicated...

[PTrackerLA]

If 92L can avoid Hispaniola could be a big trouble maker after that. With the CMC and UKMet on board with development it will be interesting to see what the Euro decides to do.

[SoupBone]

12z CMC 240

Is that 91L in the Gulf, or is it gone already at this point?

[SouthFLTropics]

That's 92L SoupBone...91L buried itself into Central America.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF through 42 hours is up to it's usual tricks of starting to develop. Will be interesting to see how strong it gets on this run.

[sma10]

If 92L can avoid Hispaniola could be a big trouble maker after that. With the CMC and UKMet on board with development it will be interesting to see what the Euro decides to do.

This is often a big "if". Over the years we've seen several modeled tracks that are forecast to barely skirt the north coast. For some reason, the circulation is always tugged into the island when it approaches closely. I recall reading somewhere why this happens, but don't remember the source.

[jlauderdal]

HWRF through 42 hours is up to it's usual tricks of starting to develop. Will be interesting to see how strong it gets on this run.

major status on hwrf always a at least a 50/50 prop...entertainment purposes only although it did very well with katrina moving through florida, it caught the dip,

[Bocadude85]

HWRF through 42 hours is up to it's usual tricks of starting to develop. Will be interesting to see how strong it gets on this run.

major status on hwrf always a at least a 50/50 prop...entertainment purposes only although it did very well with katrina moving through florida, it caught the dip,

In all fairness to the HWRF, once a llc is established the HWRF is one of the better intensity models.