ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone have 12z UKMET info??? Right now the only love that 92L is getting is from the CMC. The ensembles appear to have dropped it as well from what I'm seeing. The Euro and GFS may have had this right all along and it's time to serve up some crow. That said, I won't take my eyes off of it until it is NE of my location.

[SFLcane]

CMC in SFL as a weak depression..

[OuterBanker]

Models aren't seeing storms until they show up. All are horrible at initiation. Is there something special happening this year? Are all the new improved models not new and improved?
At least they aren't seeing phantom storms. But, if something does come of this and the models don't see it than that could pose a serious problem.
If they all show up close to our coast before they develop and don't give enough time for planning and prep, is that not a potential disaster?

[jason1912]

18z tracks and intensity:

[OuterBanker]

Gert 2

[SouthFLTropics]

For some reason that area NE of the Bahamas has been a sweet spot over the past few years for stuff to develop. If 92L wants to develop there then fine, so be it, just as long as the trough sweeps it out to sea.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS develops this off the SE coast and takes it NE out to sea

[gatorcane]

00Z SHIPS basically showing light shear now especially after hour 18 all the way to Bahamas

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17082 ... _ships.txt

[Blown Away]

How is there low shear all the way to the Bahamas when that ULL is tearing into 92L??

I throw my hands in the air over the SHIPS shear and intensity model forecasts... Trying to understand what benefit they provide when they are wrong all the time...

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: How is there low shear all the way to the Bahamas when that ULL is tearing into 92L??

I throw my hands in the air over the SHIPS shear and intensity model forecasts... Trying to understand what benefit they provide when they are wrong all the time...

Actually the shear is close right now to what the ships model says, doesn't mean it will intensify like it says

[Hammy]

NAM showing nothing more than a weak wave on the highres run, and if it's going to develop at all this is going to be the one to pick it up first.

[jason1912]

FWIW here is the RGEM:

[SFLcane]

00z models...

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

00z

[jason1912]

CMC coming in stronger than 12z so far..

[hd44]

Yes because the rgem is used for the first 48 hours on the gem.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC still likes 92L vorticity

[Hurricaneman]

00z

Intensity models are becoming more bullish and is saying that the shear will be low which is something I fear if that ULL stays at its current distance the intensity models may not be that far off

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC likes the vorticity but so far doesn't have much more than a depression.