ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

They keep postponing the mission,now is for Monday if needed.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 21/1800Z INTO SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 24.5N 72.0W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO down to 10%-30%.

A trough of low pressure located about 250 miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while
the system system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Conditions may become a little more conducive early next week while
the system is near the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the water vapor loop it looks like the ULL is trying to merge either right in front of or right on top of 92L. Best analogy for this...imagine your 92L cruising down the interstate making good time and some jerk comes from the on ramp and merges right into you or right in front of you and hits the breaks. It just messes up your whole trip.

[SFLcane]

Conditions may become a little more conducive early next week while
the system is near the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

Lol ghost town here...this thing is still pulsating so we shall see as NHC mentions when it nears bahamas.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is ULL city out there right now. Invest 92L will struggle until it reaches the Bahamas where it may have a brief chance to spin up into a TD, though that seems unlikely.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at the water vapor loop it looks like the ULL is trying to merge either right in front of or right on top of 92L. Best analogy for this...imagine your 92L cruising down the interstate making good time and some jerk comes from the on ramp and merges right into you or right in front of you and hits the breaks. It just messes up your whole trip.

Are you saying there's still hope for this little guy!?

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the water vapor loop it looks like the ULL is trying to merge either right in front of or right on top of 92L. Best analogy for this...imagine your 92L cruising down the interstate making good time and some jerk comes from the on ramp and merges right into you or right in front of you and hits the breaks. It just messes up your whole trip.

Are you saying there's still hope for this little guy!?

No, I'm saying that the ULL pulled onto the highway and cut 92L off and screwed him all up. Unless the ULL runs off the road my gut tells me that 92L may have seen its best days already. 92L had the potential to be a Corvette but instead probably will end up just a beat up old Volkswagon.

[gatorcane]

850mb vorticity has actually gotten stronger today some:

[jason1912]

[N2FSU]

"Conditions may become a little more conducive early next week while the system is near the Bahamas."

So you're saying there's a chance!

[AutoPenalti]

Love the ELI5 analogies. Keep them coming!

[CourierPR]

To my untrained eyes, 92L looks better on the rainbow satellite loop.

[floridasun78]

feeling it will be strong tropical wave by bahamas could be ts as move out to sea or hurr

[AtlanticWind]

There seems to be a weak low level circulation in front near 62, but I would look back near 60 and 20n
for possible development. Seems to look a little better this afternoon.

[rolltide]

Appears to me the UL low east of Florida is catching up with the UL low in the Gulf. What happens if they meet. Will they do a fujiwhara around each other or do they merge?

[HURAKAN]

it looks like the Shoemaker–Levy comet

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/h5-loop-wv.html

Water Vapor loop, looks better
Maybe an outside chance

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/h5-loop-wv.html

Water Vapor loop, looks better
Maybe an outside chance

The ull seems to be moving on it's way

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[SootyTern]

:uarrow: Okay, THAT was wordy?! I suppose the short answer should have been: "if the cut-off low distances itself from 92L, there's a better chance of it developing" LOL

I liked the wordy answer so thanks! It is so fascinating to me about how these weather features all interact.