ATL: IRMA - Models

[Mouton]

Latest GFS shows the Indiana solution again.

Looks like the left of 360 run over Florida after hitting 80W, very similar to the NHC solution through 6 days. Very bad case for family, friends and me. Worse would be if it took at path beginning at 81W.

That NE high ridge even sets the follow on storm back down almost into a semi loop.

Just a horrible season, and it ain't over yet.

[Hurricane Andrew]

12z UKMET:

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 63.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2017 0 18.1N 63.3W 957 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 12 19.1N 65.8W 958 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 24 20.0N 68.6W 958 73
0000UTC 08.09.2017 36 20.9N 71.4W 943 86
1200UTC 08.09.2017 48 21.4N 73.7W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.7N 75.8W 941 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.8N 78.0W 947 83
0000UTC 10.09.2017 84 22.2N 79.6W 945 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 96 23.3N 80.3W 933 86
0000UTC 11.09.2017 108 25.0N 80.2W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 120 27.5N 80.4W 922 96
0000UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.1N 80.6W 934 85
1200UTC 12.09.2017 144 33.1N 80.8W 957 62

Even the UKIE shows that major deepening from D3-D4. I'm sold on it...and it worries me.

[fendie]

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

[removed image]

Maybe Beaufort, unfortunately.

Hi-Res 12Z GFS landfalls in Ossabaw Island, Georgia just after 126 hours (using 3-hourly GFS on WxBell). 923 mb, 131 knots max 10 meter winds.

[Nimbus]

I don't think we will know the effects on Miami till the wind field reporting from recon.
Puerto Rico might escape the cat 2 winds but the east end of the island still could be going on generator for a while.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Well models this is not what you were supposed to do. I was hoping for the continued shift to the right with a prayer of OTS. Could it happen...I'm sure it's still a possibility. But I think that window is closing fast. These models are just too good at this range to not expect a significant impact from Irma here in Florida. Today's 12z Euro could very well be the nail in the coffin. If it's on course or trends back west some then in my opinion the Florida forecast chapter in Irma's book is nearly completed. From here on out the devil will be in the details. Lots of wobble watching over the next 4 days.

Yeah that window's closing fast. We'll really see where Irma goes by Thursday-Friday for Florida. Of course if the models keep it around SC, the entire state (since it's so small) will definitely need to be on alert. This is definitely a Hugo flashback. Hugo tore up South Carolina but move west of most of North Carolina. Hugo's daughter is coming if the models stay with a SC hit (think Euro also had it hitting SC last run too).

[Sanibel]

The next Euro run will be significant since GFS did not shift further east...

[sma10]

12z UKMET:

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 63.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2017 0 18.1N 63.3W 957 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 12 19.1N 65.8W 958 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 24 20.0N 68.6W 958 73
0000UTC 08.09.2017 36 20.9N 71.4W 943 86
1200UTC 08.09.2017 48 21.4N 73.7W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.7N 75.8W 941 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.8N 78.0W 947 83
0000UTC 10.09.2017 84 22.2N 79.6W 945 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 96 23.3N 80.3W 933 86
0000UTC 11.09.2017 108 25.0N 80.2W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 120 27.5N 80.4W 922 96
0000UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.1N 80.6W 934 85
1200UTC 12.09.2017 144 33.1N 80.8W 957 62

Similar to 00z all lined up now...

What an utterly devastating track this is. I don't even want to contemplate it.

[northjaxpro]

The just released GFS run is the worst case scenario for the East Coast of Florida and the entire coast region up.to the South Carolina coast.

The western eye wall would brush or scrape right along much of the coast, which would be catastrophoc with bringing the worst portion closest to shore. This is not good all the way up to Savannah.

This path is very reminiscent of Hurricane David in 1979. But, this time, Irma is much much stronger than David was at the time he was moving parallel to the Florida East Coast and would be moving literally closer right along the coast .

[SouthFLTropics]

The next Euro run will be significant since GFS did not shift further east...

Agreed...The next Euro run will be the most important run of the Euro for Florida and the East Coast since Matthew of last year. It's Euro's hand and it's holding all the cards at the moment.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z HWRF is running and is SW of 06z at 15 hours

[NDG]

For what is worth the bipolar CMC also shifted west.

[MatthewsRevenge]

The next Euro run will be significant since GFS did not shift further east...

Agreed...The next Euro run will be the most important run of the Euro for Florida and the East Coast since Matthew of last year. It's Euro's hand and it's holding all the cards at the moment.

What time does that start? 1:30?

1:45 pm.

[GCANE]

The average of the latest ECME and ECMO (the two best performing models) is exactly where 12Z GFS is.
IMHO, not going to be much more debate.
Miami hit and rake the coast.

[BucMan2]

SouthFLTropics- with the NHC center saying their errors in day 4 and 5 are 175 to 225 miles on average don't you think
it is still possible for a more westerly movement back over the state especially with not knowing strength of shortwave and
if the high is building back quicker than expected?

[chris_fit]

HWRF is slightly South @ 30hrs

[tolakram]

Topic is temporarily locked.

Euro runs at 1:45PM, HWRF is running now.

Too much back and forth in here, and frankly I don't care where you think it's going unless you are a model (not that kind of model ), or are interpreting a model. There's too much thinking without enough evidence in here and it's not helpful.

It will be unlocked shortly.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS continues NNW past SFL into GA then NW into W Virginia... No hint of an E component up to W Virginia...

[RL3AO]

HWRF a little to the SW of previous run.

[chris_fit]

Trend @ 45hrs....

12Z is faster/W - maybe a smidge S

[chris_fit]

HWRF just a little faster than 06Z Run - Same Lat