It makes complete sense. Sorry to anyone else who's seen me post about this since last week, but the biggest player in the game was always going to be high pressure coming down from Canada. It is the reason that everyone was asking why Irma went NW and WNW once inland vs. NE or ENE out. The reason was the retreating trough would be replaced by high pressure seeping/oozing down from the north which would create an umbrella situation where there was high pressure to the NE, N and NW of Irma as it was inland. 06Z models this morning that were biased east (NAM, GFS) started to show the retreating trough ahead of the high pressure coming down smaller and farther east.
The best way I can explain it because I'm a completely lay person is to remember that high pressure flows clockwise. The Canadian high is at the surface, but it's also aloft except to the west where the small shortwaves/upper lows are embedded and coming down from Montana like Aric was talking about on Sunday or Monday.
Red is High Pressure on the EC Height Anomalies:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=558
^^ That run is at 500mb or approximately 18,000 feet or just over 3 miles up. That's not terribly high - say about halfway to where the jets usually fly. But it's generally a good indicator of synoptics.
Now if you look at the 200mb stream flows which is around 39,000 feet (roughly 7.4 miles up), you will see the higher up setup and stream flow. I'm not necessarily implying that Irma will be guided at the 200mb level. But you can see where the weather is going. For this run, we'll have to use the Canadian 200mb winds since Tropical Tidbits doesn't get the 200mb on the EC. The CMC won't be exactly right, but it's close enough to make the point.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=310
Let me know if this doesn't make sense to you and I'll try to clarify it.