ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Wow. That was a big shift east at 5 PM.

Yeah, I was surprised. The discussion has a lot of uncertainty mentions. And since Jose has slowed down and has been possibly stalling at times, the Euro gains more credibility. Not sure I would discount the Euro so much given its recent accuracy.

[weathaguyry]

Wow. That was a big shift east at 5 PM.

Though they do mention that the ECMWF has shifted west, so we shall see

['CaneFreak]

Yeah the cone keeps the East Coast in the clear which is my concern. At least they do the key messages now.

Wow. That was a big shift east at 5 PM.

Though they do mention that the ECMWF has shifted west, so we shall see

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Now Jose looks like he's trying to make a Hurricane Bob re-run rather than Sandy re-run.

[Aric Dunn]

Well ENE is a very odd motion.. movinf ene away from the forecast points..

[Aric Dunn]

Well ENE is a very odd motion.. movinf ene away from the forecast points..

well I guess it is only weird .. until you look at the mid to upper level steering currently.. interesting..

[gatorcane]

Jose does seem to be moving ENE. Interesting considering that is not what the models show.

[gatorcane]

Upon closer inspection of the models, it appears the movement we are seeing now more closely matches the GFS. The Euro shows a NNW movement.

[ozonepete]

The best parts of Jose's odd journey haven't started yet. If you watch the latest satellite loops it is finally doing the forecast expansion in size and that's going to help shift the eye location west or northwestward. The Euro always had this in its forecast. So what's the final result? Who knows? Ask the Euro...

[Aric Dunn]

The best parts of Jose's odd journey haven't started yet. If you watch the latest satellite loops it is finally doing the forecast expansion in size and that's going to help shift the eye location west or northwestward. The Euro always had this in its forecast. So what's the final result? Who knows? Ask the Euro...

haha.. at this point maybe two eyes will develop.. lol

[xironman]

Seems to be holding up under shear

[xironman]

Cat 2? Did not see this one flagged

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 89 kts (102.4 mph)

Yeah they will need to go for an upgrade

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph)

He is a mess though: Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 36kts (From the ESE at 41mph)

[weathaguyry]

Is Jose strengthening again?

[gfsperpendicular]

Cat 2? Did not see this one flagged

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 89 kts (102.4 mph)

Yeah they will need to go for an upgrade

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph)

He is a mess though: Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 36kts (From the ESE at 41mph)

[txwatcher91]

Jose is a strange storm. When he had little shear he couldn’t seem to get going but now under 30-40kts of shear he looks the best he has in awhile, has a huge center forming and has possible cat 2 winds per recon with a 970mb pressure. How is he intensifying under these conditions??

[Happy Pelican]

Ugh. At least my house was elevated last year so aside from the basics, I think we'll just wait and see.

[NotSparta]

Jose is a strange storm. When he had little shear he couldn’t seem to get going but now under 30-40kts of shear he looks the best he has in awhile, has a huge center forming and has possible cat 2 winds per recon with a 970mb pressure. How is he intensifying under these conditions??

Maybe because it's 2017

[xironman]

Jose is a strange storm. When he had little shear he couldn’t seem to get going but now under 30-40kts of shear he looks the best he has in awhile, has a huge center forming and has possible cat 2 winds per recon with a 970mb pressure. How is he intensifying under these conditions??

I don't know about those shear maps. Sometimes they advertise nothing and the storm gets blown apart. And then today I see Jose pushing cirrus out in almost all quadrants.

[drezee]

Jose is a strange storm. When he had little shear he couldn’t seem to get going but now under 30-40kts of shear he looks the best he has in awhile, has a huge center forming and has possible cat 2 winds per recon with a 970mb pressure. How is he intensifying under these conditions??

970 pressure with the drop showing 40+mph winds at the surface. Could be closer to 965mb....strange system

[GCANE]