ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#61 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:17 pm

RL3AO wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:WPC issuing the advisory. Probably a full-scale test in case they need to take over for NHC.


Workload may be an issue too.

IF either: a) WPC is overloaded, or b) BOTH WPC and NHC are down, who is the secondary backup? I would think it would be the SPC or OPC.


I'd guess CPHC. You can throw a paper airplane from the OPC to WPC desks. Doesn't make sense for that to be a tertiary backup.


Yikes.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#62 Postby gfsperpendicular » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Workload may be an issue too.

IF either: a) WPC is overloaded, or b) BOTH WPC and NHC are down, who is the secondary backup? I would think it would be the SPC or OPC.


I'd guess CPHC. You can throw a paper airplane from the OPC to WPC desks. Doesn't make sense for that to be a tertiary backup.


Yikes.


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Re: ATL: JOSE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:30 pm

RL3AO wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:WPC issuing the advisory. Probably a full-scale test in case they need to take over for NHC.


Workload may be an issue too.

IF either: a) WPC is overloaded, or b) BOTH WPC and NHC are down, who is the secondary backup? I would think it would be the SPC or OPC.


I'd guess CPHC. You can throw a paper airplane from the OPC to WPC desks. Doesn't make sense for that to be a tertiary backup.


CPHC will do NHC backup for the EPAC if necessary (it's their primary backup), but luckily that shouldn't be an issue in the short term.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#64 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:13 pm

Speaking of the islands, how will they be able to communicate a potential second threat? Communications on some islands are really limited right now. This does look like a Luis-Marilyn situation.

Also, any plans for Recon? maybe on Friday?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#65 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Speaking of the islands, how will they be able to communicate a potential second threat? Communications on some islands are really limited right now. This does look like a Luis-Marilyn situation.

Also, any plans for Recon? maybe on Friday?


Friday morning and another one on Saturday.

3. TROPICAL STORM JOSE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 77
A. 08/1200Z D. 15.4N 55.3W
B. AFXXX 0112A JOSE E. 08/1130Z TO 08/1430Z
D. 08/0900Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES ON IRMA.
MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS ON IRMA BY THE P-3 AND G-IV.
FIXES EVERY 12 HRS ON KATIA. ANOTHER FIX ON JOSE.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#66 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:46 pm

A recent Windsat pass noted a 37-GHz cyan ring present in Hurricane Jose. Rapid Intensification is very possible at this time.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#67 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:52 pm

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#68 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:21 pm

Core structure rapidly coming together. Would not be surprised to see a major by tomorrow sometime.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#69 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:29 pm

Yeah, banding eye is showing up clearly on IR. Structure appears to be quickly progressing.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#70 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:54 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:A recent Windsat pass noted a 37-GHz cyan ring present in Hurricane Jose. Rapid Intensification is very possible at this time.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/JpqEY3g.jpg[img]

Were it to rapidly intensify at this stage, would that affect its track? If so, in what way?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#71 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:07 pm

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose's deep convection displays a tightly curved band that wraps at
least twelve-tenths around the center. Dvorak intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB have increased accordingly. Thus, maximum
sustained winds are analyzed for Jose at 75 kt, very close to that
from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique.

Jose is likely to continue developing during the next day or two
while the vertical shear is low, the SSTs are around 29C, and the
mid-level humidity is moist. However, beginning in two to three
days, the outflow from large, strong hurricane Irma to Jose's west
should start inducing more shear, inducing a steady weakening
by days four and five. The official intensity forecast is based upon
a blend of the LGEM, HWRF, and COAMPS models. Jose's anticipated
peak intensity of 105 kt is slightly higher than the previous
advisory, while days four and five show a more quickly weakening
system at that time.

The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 15 kt, as
it is being advected along the south side of the deep-layer Bermuda
high. This motion should continue for the next couple of days.
During days three to five, Jose should bend toward the northwest as
it moves around the periphery of the Bermuda high. The official
track forecast is based upon the very tightly clustered guidance
(and their consensus technique - TVCN), which is somewhat west of
the previous advisory.

If future guidance further shifts westward, then tropical storm or
hurricane watches may be required for portions of the Leeward
Islands on Thursday.

Jose is a small hurricane with tropical-storm-force winds extending
out at most 70 nm from the center, based upon NDBC Buoy 41041 and
the 0006Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass. The official size foreast -
based upon the RVCN consensus - suggests a gradual increase in size
for the next three days. Interestingly, buoy 41041 measured a
peak 1-minute wind (at 5 m anemometer height) of 61 kt around 22Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.4N 47.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.9N 49.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 15.5N 53.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 16.1N 55.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 19.3N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 22.4N 65.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.9N 68.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#72 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:49 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Speaking of the islands, how will they be able to communicate a potential second threat? Communications on some islands are really limited right now. This does look like a Luis-Marilyn situation.

Also, any plans for Recon? maybe on Friday?


the hurricane hunters should consider dropping leaflets to get the warning out. May be the only way to convey a warning
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#73 Postby Evenstar » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:57 pm

Is it just me or does it feel nice and calm in this forum? It's like a quietly enthusiastic weather-nerd meeting in here.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#74 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:32 am

Jose is gradually becoming an impressive hurricane in his own right.The CDO is looking very impressive this morning and we should see the eye clearing out later today. Jose is in an intensification period right now.

Jose is also growing in size and I think Jose will become a major hurricane if this current organization trends continue. Wow, what a year this has turned out to be in the tropics. It is frightening to think that the models are latching onto Jose doing a loop( I.e. Jeanne '04) and building the HP ridge back in to steer Jose to the west towards the Leewards and eventually back to the Bahamas and Florida during the next 10 days. Unbelievable!!
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#75 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:50 am

Waouw, oh boy... warning and watches for the Leewards could be on tape today :( :eek: Don't like to read this type of weather forecast :( :(



000
WTNT32 KNHC 070855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 49.1W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Jose. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of these islands later this morning.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 49.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#76 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:10 am

Eye is becoming more clear and very evident. Is it me or my untrained eyes? José is increasing a bit faster than what was expected if this trend continues.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#77 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:52 am

Absolutely amazing. Any other time there would be a hundred pages written on a storm that looks this good this far east. Irma (rightfully so) has all the attention. What an unbelievable year.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#78 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:04 am

Yeah, I fear the forgotten nature could be deadly...they really need to clear out Barbuda at least.

Hurricane Watch issued for the northern Leewards.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#79 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:22 am

I believe abajan has already asked this, but how will intensity affect the track, if it does at all?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#80 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:38 am

Slight east shift and slightly stronger days 4-5.

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