ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[millerm277]

On TWC they have been talking about the massive flooding around PR. One of the river gauges is measuring nearly 80 feet, which is WAY above any reading ever for that particular river.

I know that flooding is to be expected, given the rate of rainfall and the terrain, but some of those readings are crazy high, and they shot up crazy fast, too.

I just hope and pray that those things are somehow malfunctioning. Please Lord, let them be broken.

Good news then, they are. It's quite likely there is record flooding on this waterway, but it certainly is not 80ft.

TWC posted the graph found here: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=comp4

However, that gauge is officially marked "Flood Damaged" on the USGS site and those results have been voided and have been replaced with "Flood Damaged". This can be seen in this table: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/uv?c ... 2017-09-20

In fact, many of the gauges on that waterway and in PR in general are currently officially broken, as can be seen https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/current?index_pmcode_STATION_NM=1&index_pmcode_DATETIME=2&index_pmcode_00065=3&index_pmcode_45592=4&group_key=basin_cd&sitefile_output_format=html_table&column_name=site_no&column_name=station_nm&format=html_table&sort_key_2=site_no&html_table_group_key=basin_cd&rdb_compression=file&list_of_search_criteria=realtime_parameter_selection here.

It's a reasonably safe bet that there's probably more that are of questionable reliability at this point. It's also a reasonably safe bet that the weather.gov site with the nice graphics just polls for new results from the USGS data feed and doesn't re-request all the old data, leading to why it still shows that graph.

--------------------

That gauge is marked on the USGS site as having an operational limit of 35ft.

Even if you didn't know that, I know, and I'm sure the people working at TWC know that flood gauges aren't typically built in a way that they could record multiple times the record flood level accurately. You'd have to have this gauge on a 100ft high platform over this river!

They're either incompetent to a degree I find implausible (and didn't know where to look at the USGS data sources), or they're dishonest. Either way, putting that graph on a television at all and letting scared people think there is even a chance it could be real is appalling piece of fearmongering that deserves condemnation in my opinion. I've seen this posted multiple times on other sites besides this one as well.

[sunnyday]

Any pictures of the monster sized wind field, pls?

[PandaCitrus]

When I thinking 160mph winds, I'm thinking of Hurricane Andrew damage. The damage in Dominica is not at this level which is great. But is it building codes or luck with lesser winds?

https://www.weather.gov/images/mfl/even ... ndrew2.gif

[Kazmit]

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

The satellite presentation is a little better organized than
a few hours ago, and Maria now has a large ragged eye. However,
data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
winds are still 95 kt, while the central pressure has remained
unchanged oscillating near 959 mb. Even with the current favorable
low-shear environment and warm ocean, it takes in general about 24
hours for the boundary layer of the hurricane to recover from the
passage over high terrain, in this case Puerto Rico. In addition,
the reconnaissance plane reported two wind maxima and two concentric
eyewalls in the previous penetration, and it just reported that the
inner one has collapsed in the last fix. This suggest that an
eyewall replacement cyclone has occurred. With this complex
scenario, the NHC forecast allows for some small increase in
intensity as suggested by guidance and brings Maria back to category
3 status in about 24 hours.

Maria continues right on track, moving toward the northwest or 310
degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is expected to be steered
north-northwestward and northward around a subtropical ridge over
the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3 days. The only change to the
previous forecast is a small shift to the east by the end of the
forecast period as indicated by most of the track models. By then,
Maria should have reached the northwestern edge of the ridge. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
very near the HFIP corrected consensus.

[pcolaman]

Looks like she WILL have a huge eye!! I see her on a more westerly heading acording lat and lon.

[1900hurricane]

Most recent microwave pass:

[abajan]

Looks like she WILL have a huge eye!! I see her on a more westerly heading acording lat and lon.

Pretty sure that eye will tighten up with time, and the NHC has done an excellent job forecasting Maria's track so far, imo. As such, I'm fairly confident the Turks & Caicos will get the weaker (southwest) side of the hurricane. However, after watching the last couple of Mark Sudduth's videos, I'm not so sure about a US East Coast miss.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CYACXdhIOk

[psyclone]

On TWC they have been talking about the massive flooding around PR. One of the river gauges is measuring nearly 80 feet, which is WAY above any reading ever for that particular river.

I know that flooding is to be expected, given the rate of rainfall and the terrain, but some of those readings are crazy high, and they shot up crazy fast, too.

I just hope and pray that those things are somehow malfunctioning. Please Lord, let them be broken.

Good news then, they are. It's quite likely there is record flooding on this waterway, but it certainly is not 80ft.

TWC posted the graph found here: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=comp4

However, that gauge is officially marked "Flood Damaged" on the USGS site and those results have been voided and have been replaced with "Flood Damaged". This can be seen in this table: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/uv?c ... 2017-09-20

In fact, many of the gauges on that waterway and in PR in general are currently officially broken, as can be seen https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/current?index_pmcode_STATION_NM=1&index_pmcode_DATETIME=2&index_pmcode_00065=3&index_pmcode_45592=4&group_key=basin_cd&sitefile_output_format=html_table&column_name=site_no&column_name=station_nm&format=html_table&sort_key_2=site_no&html_table_group_key=basin_cd&rdb_compression=file&list_of_search_criteria=realtime_parameter_selection here.

It's a reasonably safe bet that there's probably more that are of questionable reliability at this point. It's also a reasonably safe bet that the weather.gov site with the nice graphics just polls for new results from the USGS data feed and doesn't re-request all the old data, leading to why it still shows that graph.

--------------------

That gauge is marked on the USGS site as having an operational limit of 35ft.

Even if you didn't know that, I know, and I'm sure the people working at TWC know that flood gauges aren't typically built in a way that they could record multiple times the record flood level accurately. You'd have to have this gauge on a 100ft high platform over this river!

They're either incompetent to a degree I find implausible (and didn't know where to look at the USGS data sources), or they're dishonest. Either way, putting that graph on a television at all and letting scared people think there is even a chance it could be real is appalling piece of fearmongering that deserves condemnation in my opinion. I've seen this posted multiple times on other sites besides this one as well.

Thanks for posting this. I had no doubt there were malfunctions. the readings were just unbelievable absent a possibility of a landslide dam and subsequent catastrophic failure. I'm surprised they were just shown by otherwise reputable sources without question. frankly they just didn't make sense. Nevertheless the flooding situation is no doubt terrible and still unfolding.

[Sanibel]

I saw that 80 foot river level report on TWC...That's enough to wipe out a town...

[Aric Dunn]

maria may never recover fully from it's passage over PR..this happens a lot.

[psyclone]

maria may never recover fully from it's passage over PR..this happens a lot.

I'm more concerned about the inverse. Talk about a life changing event

[Orlando]

maria may never recover fully from it's passage over PR..this happens a lot.

That is comforting. I am totally burned out on hurricanes. This season has made me want to move to Colorado.

[Exalt]

maria may never recover fully from it's passage over PR..this happens a lot.

Uh.. that new eye seems to be closing off and intensifying?

[psyclone]

maria may never recover fully from it's passage over PR..this happens a lot.

Uh.. that new eye seems to be closing off and intensifying?

It's large and loose now. might become and remain reminiscent of Ike after it's passage over Cuba.

[wxmann_91]

When I thinking 160mph winds, I'm thinking of Hurricane Andrew damage. The damage in Dominica is not at this level which is great. But is it building codes or luck with lesser winds?

[i mg]https://www.weather.gov/images/mfl/events/andrew/1992andrew2.gif[/img]

A little bit of both. I'd imagine building codes in the Caribbean are stringent given all the threats that come their way. But also, Dominica is fairly mountainous, which means more friction to slow the winds down. Also, a lot of the pictures are from Roseau which experienced the weaker left side of the eyewall. I've seen some videos of tree defoliation and damage elsewhere on the island that are remarkably similar to the scenes on Tortola. That's probably Cat 5 damage.

[aperson]

Is there any radar around the DR region that has the eye in range? Satellite presentation looks like the ERC is going to complete without a hitch which makes sense with SSTs and shear in the region

[psyclone]

When I thinking 160mph winds, I'm thinking of Hurricane Andrew damage. The damage in Dominica is not at this level which is great. But is it building codes or luck with lesser winds?

[i mg]https://www.weather.gov/images/mfl/events/andrew/1992andrew2.gif[/img]

A little bit of both. I'd imagine building codes in the Caribbean are stringent given all the threats that come their way. But also, Dominica is fairly mountainous, which means more friction to slow the winds down. Also, a lot of the pictures are from Roseau which experienced the weaker left side of the eyewall. I've seen some videos of tree defoliation and damage elsewhere on the island that are remarkably similar to the scenes on Tortola. That's probably Cat 5 damage.

Correct. the entire island didn't take the eyewall but there is footage of areas that did and it looks like a bomb went off. No green left on vegetation and building debris scattered like you'd see in a strong tornado.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Only way to learn is to ask. I've been following these boards off and on since Katrina wiped out my home in 2005. I've gotten pretty good at keeping up with NHC reports, and even reading a lot of Recon data (esp. Vortex info) but it's been pick up this and that when you can... I see a lot of "data" only pages, so I don't post on them, but the one set of data I would like to understand better is the box-setting of numbers that read across from left-to-right with several sets of numbers. Some I can guess indicate location (lat/long) and possible wind speeds (although not sure if sfc or fl) and atmospheric pressure in mb. but there's much more than that in this row of data, and I'd appreciate anyone who can help, giving me some detail on what these rows of data mean (if possible from left to right)

031000 1719N 06445W 6963 02357 9075 +215 +102 011002 022 030 001 00

I'm guessing the first might have something to do with time, possibly Z, obviously the next two data are coordinates -- I don't know what the next two sets indicate and I'm guessing that 9075 is atm. pressure of 907.5 mb. I have NO idea what the +215 and +102 indicate (possibly directional and/or SFC wind speeds?) and the next sets of data I am not sure of at all and would prefer not to guess. Any help is appreciated!

A2K

[AJC3]

Is there any radar around the DR region that has the eye in range? Satellite presentation looks like the ERC is going to complete without a hitch which makes sense with SSTs and shear in the region

The weather radar in Punta Cana, DR has been inoperative for a few (maybe several) years.

[Salix88]

Is there any radar around the DR region that has the eye in range? Satellite presentation looks like the ERC is going to complete without a hitch which makes sense with SSTs and shear in the region

The weather radar in Punta Cana, DR has been inoperative for a few (maybe several) years.

According to a recent report, the radar is inoperative because of software-hardware incompatibility issues and it hasn't been updated probably due to it costs of US$50-60 thousand dollars. Report here: http://bit.ly/2hjyaxx