ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

the higher terrian will see higher winds.. but they are still no where what they were.

At around 2:10am AST there were momentary winds found by a sonde of about 160 knots (184 mph) at the 894mb level.

Considering the highest winds found in a sonde so far in this storm have been 173 kts (199.1 mph) on the way down, "they are still no where what they were" isn't accurate when it comes to winds at higher levels.

[Aric Dunn]

disregarding the inner eye that is tumbling like a football.. the whole system has wobbled more wnw the last hour.. should bring the center ashore near rio blanco .. san juan is going to get some of the worst on present course.

[cheezyWXguy]

Radar velocities are increasing in the northern eyewall now too. Highest I found was 174.5mph, was hardly seeing anything over 160 an hour ago

[Blinhart]

after 3 passes .. it is safe to say it is at 140 mph tops.

inner eye not giving up.. landfall cat4 in about 2 hours. looks about right..

The thing is though, there is only half an inner eyewall left now. It looks pretty substantially different than it did an hour ago, and 2 more hours could allow for further changes.

And to anyone reading my posts, please don't think I'm wishcasting a strengthening storm on PR. I am however concerned that optimism or downplaying the event can cause complacency, and believe that all variables and scenarios should be considered

I have to totally agree with this. I rather be a pessimist and be happy when it comes out way better, than an optimist and be totally devastated when it comes out way worse. With I say 3 to 5 hours before the center of the larger eye getting all the way on shore this has a good chance of getting stronger before the whole CoC is on shore and doesn't have a chance of strengthening until he gets back over shore which shouldn't take more than 6 to 8 hours before the whole CoC is off shore just NW of San Juan.

[Aric Dunn]

the higher terrian will see higher winds.. but they are still no where what they were.

At around 2:10am AST there were momentary winds found by a sonde of about 160 knots (184 mph) at the 894mb level.

Considering the highest winds found in a sonde so far in this storm have been 173 kts (199.1 mph) on the way down, "they are still no where what they were" isn't accurate when it comes to winds at higher levels.

actually that is quite accurate.

local gust happen.. but wide spread 160kt at the surface and higher levels in all quads earlier is quite a bit diffefrent than now.

so yes.. again still not down playing this.. it is very dangerous and will be beyond destructive.

im just a numbers guy... a scientist.

[aperson]

inner eye wall is no longer convex

In my opinion, whether or not Maria begins intensifying before PR landfall is going to come down to the wire.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar velocities are increasing in the northern eyewall now too. Highest I found was 174.5mph, was hardly seeing anything over 160 an hour ago

watch out with that as if you notice they all of a sudden increased right as the eyewall went over land...doppler velocities can be tricky sometimes. recon will tell us on the next pass.

[Salix88]

Those hurricane damage potential multipliers doesn't seem right to me. Unlike CONUS, most structures in Puerto Rico are built with concrete blocks, reinforcement steel bars and reinforced concrete. Here in Hispaniola, and probably in PR too, the great damage from storms come from floods, sudden landslides and mudslide and perhaps storm surge in river mouths and deltas. I wouldn't be too optimistic about a 25-30 mph drop in wind speed, this system will engulf the whole island. Heavy rains and flooding be the main theme and the image of damage and destruction of Maria in PR, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

the neweest radar image the inner eyewall little piece has merged with the outer and the rest of the inner is only very shallow..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

the higher terrian will see higher winds.. but they are still no where what they were.

At around 2:10am AST there were momentary winds found by a sonde of about 160 knots (184 mph) at the 894mb level.

Considering the highest winds found in a sonde so far in this storm have been 173 kts (199.1 mph) on the way down, "they are still no where what they were" isn't accurate when it comes to winds at higher levels.

actually that is quite accurate.

local gust happen.. but wide spread 160kt at the surface and higher levels in all quads earlier is quite a bit diffefrent than now.

so yes.. again still not down playing this.. it is very dangerous and will be beyond destructive.

im just a numbers guy... a scientist.

I wasn't talking about at the surface right now. You're missing some powerful winds between flight level and the surface that people at higher elevations in Puerto Rico will feel. There are not enough sondes to see what it looks like throughout the storm. We have to go with what we have.

[Aric Dunn]

At around 2:10am AST there were momentary winds found by a sonde of about 160 knots (184 mph) at the 894mb level.

Considering the highest winds found in a sonde so far in this storm have been 173 kts (199.1 mph) on the way down, "they are still no where what they were" isn't accurate when it comes to winds at higher levels.

actually that is quite accurate.

local gust happen.. but wide spread 160kt at the surface and higher levels in all quads earlier is quite a bit diffefrent than now.

so yes.. again still not down playing this.. it is very dangerous and will be beyond destructive.

im just a numbers guy... a scientist.

I wasn't talking about at the surface right now. You're missing some powerful winds between flight level and the surface that people at higher elevations in Puerto Rico will feel. There are not enough sondes to see what it looks like throughout the storm. We have to go with what we have.

again even the dropsondes are sporadic higher winds.. so "going with what we have" is not what we had earlier..

data support 140 mph at the moment ..

inner eye is pretty much gone.. lets see what happens this last hour or two.. the eye can now start contracting without the inner there.

[otowntiger]

Those hurricane damage potential multipliers doesn't seem right to me. Unlike CONUS, most structures in Puerto Rico are built with concrete blocks, reinforcement steel bars and reinforced concrete. Here in Hispaniola, and probably in PR too, the great damage from storms come from floods, sudden landslides and mudslide and perhaps storm surge in river mouths and deltas. I wouldn't be too optimistic about a 25-30 mph drop in wind speed, this system will engulf the whole island. Heavy rains and flooding be the main theme and the image of damage and destruction of Maria in PR, IMO.

. Agreed, but the wind damage will still be disastrous no doubt as well even with the supposed decrease and will be for the entire island.

[LarryWx]

Luis,
May you be blessed and be protected from Maria's danger. I hope that wherever you are is sturdy and high enough to avoid flooding.

[Salix88]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 200759
TCUAT5

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
400 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...400 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...MARIA'S EYEWALL OVER VIEQUES...

A sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) with a wind gust to 83 mph
(133 km/h) was recently reported in Fajardo, Puerto Rico.

A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph
(102 km/h) was recently reported at San Juan International Airport.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM AST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 65.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF VIEQUES
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake

[cheezyWXguy]

Radar velocities are increasing in the northern eyewall now too. Highest I found was 174.5mph, was hardly seeing anything over 160 an hour ago

watch out with that as if you notice they all of a sudden increased right as the eyewall went over land...doppler velocities can be tricky sometimes. recon will tell us on the next pass.

Makes sense, recon always holds the final say. It's hard to tell if the velocities are increasing because of what you said, or because of the recent rapid degradation of the inner eyewall. Maybe both, but either way very interesting, and it's clear that Maria is certainly not weakening and is at least holding steady

[Aric Dunn]

definitely wabbling more wnw the last 30 min or so.. disreagarding the inner eye..

putting san juan at greater risk the more wobbles westerly.

[Aric Dunn]

that NW eyewall has some serious heavy rain and its thick.. Im sure its crazy white out conditions about to come ashore to josh and the other stomr chaser.. this is crunch time.

[Aric Dunn]

you can see the convection on radar starting to expand and fan out.. the mountains are starting to disrupt the northwest part of the inner core.

[flamingosun]

NHC 4 am Update

000
WTNT65 KNHC 200759
TCUAT5

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
400 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...400 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...MARIA'S EYEWALL OVER VIEQUES...

A sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) with a wind gust to 83 mph
(133 km/h) was recently reported in Fajardo, Puerto Rico.

A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph
(102 km/h) was recently reported at San Juan International Airport.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM AST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 65.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF VIEQUES
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake

[Aric Dunn]

Vieques island is getting just level.. whatever structures are there. I know its pretty militarized.. or it used to be..