ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

It's mind-boggling how quickly those river gauges went from normal to major flooding.

This really struck me too. Obviously a landfalling hurricane on an island with higher terrain is going to cause flooding, but the scale really caught me off guard.

['CaneFreak]

Given that the storm bisected Puerto Rico and crossed the mountains that are west-east oriented there, that could be the part of the mid level center or it could be the subsidence from the pressure rises on the south side of the circulation as commented below (good catch by 1900hurricane).

The NHC 10am plot is 18.4N 66.4 W in northern Puerto Coast.

What is that feature on the southern coast moving west? It looks like the center on satellite but apparently it isn't.

[1900hurricane]

After viewing the GOES-16 loop, the ADT spiral analysis seems to have a good handle on the center location. Looks like it's approaching the north coast.

[1900hurricane]

The NHC 10am plot is 18.4N 66.4 W in northern Puerto Coast.

What is that feature on the southern coast moving west? It looks like the center on satellite but apparently it isn't.

I assume you're referring to the warmer area on IR? I'd guess it has to do with lee side subsidence since its on the other side of the island from where the circulation is lifting over the mountains.

[abajan]

Slightly off topic, but why can't recon go over land and only sea?

I think it's partly a safety issue. Were the planes to crash, they could injure or kill people on the ground.

[Exalt]

How are the conditions ahead of Maria, because she's held her structure fairly well..

[jdjaguar]

How are the conditions ahead of Maria, because she's held her structure fairly well..

NHC is showing increased shear and gradual weakening of the system.

[HurricaneBelle]

Slightly off topic, but why can't recon go over land and only sea?

I think it's partly a safety issue. Were the planes to crash, they could injure or kill people on the ground.

Not to mention they don't want dropsondes to land on people's heads.

[Cerlin]

This Atlantic hurricane season has been devastating and absolutely nuts. It seems like just about every island in the Caribbean has been pummeled by some intense cyclone this year.

[supercane4867]

Landfall loop

[mrbagyo]

This Atlantic hurricane season has been devastating and absolutely nuts. It seems like just about every island in the Caribbean has been pummeled by some intense cyclone this year.

and it may be far from over... Western Caribbean is still mostly untouched and Super-October is yet to come.

Edit: Strongest Storms in N. HEMISPHERE tend to form during October.

[supercane4867]

Has the PR radar been destroyed? That's big loss and it may take weeks to repair

[SouthDadeFish]

Seeing some horrendous footage of flooding out of SE Puerto Rico:

 https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/910497315898761217

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Is it just me, or is Maria trying to lash the ENTIRE island with a more westerly movement??

[curtadams]

Slightly off topic, but why can't recon go over land and only sea?

I think it's partly a safety issue. Were the planes to crash, they could injure or kill people on the ground.

In particular the turbulence increases *tremendously* over land. Hurricanes are a lot less turbulent than you'd think because the ocean is so flat and doesn't have terrain. But land slows down the air at the surface in complicated ways, creating a lot of turbulence, to the point where it's not safe for anyone to fly in it.

[abajan]

Heading toward Arecibo
Waiting for the big microwave bolt to knock her down a notch or two.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

Compare that actual path taken, to the 120 hour (5-day) position forecast by the NHC four (4) days ago in their 11 AM Discussion. Granted, it's about a day off, but it's darned good forecasting, especially considering the width of the error cone that far out in time.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and ECMWF were in pretty good agreement on a Puerto Rico hit well in advance (going back 4+ days ago) so that definitely helped the NHC coming up with this accurate forecast well in advance. Even on this forum we were warning Puerto Rico could possibly get hit well in advance. The credit should be given just as much to the models as to the NHC. Notice how much the NHC missed on intensity though.

[msbee]

In your house?

Yes... ground level.

Sure hope you have a safer room to get into... or a higher floor. Take care!

That happened to us in Irma. We thought we were safe in that room because it was downstairs and protected.. Please be careful. Get to a bathroom

[Sanibel]

I think both San Juan and St Croix missed the worst by 20 miles or so but still got significant impacts...


Don't forget Cycloneye!

[abajan]

This Atlantic hurricane season has been devastating and absolutely nuts. It seems like just about every island in the Caribbean has been pummeled by some intense cyclone this year.

It only seems that way. Barbados was hardly affected by anything. Yes, the center of Harvey went right over us, but it was a weak and disorganized system at the time. And we got some squally weather from Maria's outer bands, but hardly anything worth mentioning, especially in light of what other islands got. Actually, most of the southeastern islands of the archipelago were untouched by anything major.

Just trying to stop the propagation of fake news.