ATL: MARIA - Models

[floridasun78]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

Honestly, South Florida should have steadily felt better over the past several days as the models have consistently shown no danger for us.

I was just worried about how the models were possibly handling (or mishandling) jose

i feel models doing good job with jose their been showing weakness in high for few days that what you want to see

[wxmann_91]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

Honestly, South Florida should have steadily felt better over the past several days as the models have consistently shown no danger for us.

I was just worried about how the models were possibly handling (or mishandling) jose

Jose only comes into the picture further north. The main driver in turning Maria north in the near-term is the ULL over the SE US.

[chaser1]

South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.

Agreed. I was noticing at 114 hr. how much weaker Jose was as compared to prior runs for the same time frame. In addition to that, the Great Lakes ridging appeared to be a bit stronger than prior runs for the same time frame also. Need to look out for any quicker weakening (or pulling out entirely) of Jose as potential harbinger of future westward track adjustments

I think we're on the same page! Looks like I'm staying up for the Euro again to check for agreement. I swear I never get any sleep come hurricane season.

I feel ya

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro 96: Maria is 100 miles WNW of her 12Z Euro 108 position. Look out E NC?

[Brent]

120 looks problematic

Jose weaker and further east and a lot of ridging

[Frank2]

The models have been very consistent, even beyond 120 and this loop very encouraging for Florida and SE:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

also, strong shear ahead of Maria, certainly why NHC has it lowered to a 2 or even 1 in 3 days...

[YoshiMike]

The models have been very consistent, even beyond 120 and this loop very encouraging for Florida and SE:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

also, strong shear ahead of Maria, certainly why NHC has it lowered to a 2 or even 1 in 3 days...

Puerto Rico is getting hammered right now. Those poor people

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910489910225854466




Michael Ventrice ✔ @MJVentrice
Keep an eye on #Maria/Jose interaction next week; Seeing rising probabilities for #NYC to see Hurricane force winds. ECMWF = 48%; GEFS = 69%
9:04 AM - Sep 20, 2017

[Vdogg]

6z Navgem is ugly for Obx/Va. Beach. Came back west a lot after making Jose go poof. We'll see if the other models follow suit.

[weathaguyry]

[tw eet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910489910225854466[/tweet]

Michael Ventrice ✔ @MJVentrice
Keep an eye on #Maria/Jose interaction next week; Seeing rising probabilities for #NYC to see Hurricane force winds. ECMWF = 48%; GEFS = 69%
9:04 AM - Sep 20, 2017

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/dzwk6ta.png[/img]

At least it's a week out. We already got moderate coastal flooding yesterday from Jose

[ronjon]

6z Navgem is ugly for Obx/Va. Beach. Came back west a lot after making Jose go poof. We'll see if the other models follow suit.

Yes significant shift west on 06z NAVGEM from 00z. Big blocking high over New England. Will be shunted west into the mid-atlantic if this verifies.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017092006&fh=144

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM is useful in the medium to long-range because usually that is where the storm is not going to go.

[txwatcher91]

The NAVGEM is useful in the medium to long-range because usually that is where the storm is not going to go.

Not always. I remember it was showing the west coast of Florida track for Irma along with the Euro... It's not very accurate but it can be useful like any other model if you know its bias and how to adjust for it.

[ronjon]

The NAVGEM is useful in the medium to long-range because usually that is where the storm is not going to go.

yeah its got poor run-to-run consistency issues - just looking at it with other models on the fate of Jose and 500 mb pattern. Not sure any of the globals have a good handle on the evolution of Jose yet.

[bghowie]

Would a stronger Lee have any impact on the path of Jose and Maria? Thanks!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Pretty tight consensus now of where she is headed which by all accounts is up and eventually out to sea...With that said she made her mark and will require retirement.

[txwatcher91]

Pretty tight consensus now of where she is headed which by all accounts is up and eventually out to sea...With that said she made her mark and will require retirement.

Way too early to be making statements like this. The Euro and GFS both have this passing very close to the NC coast up to NYC. This is 6-7 days out from those areas and margin for error is well over 200 miles this far out.. and I'd wager it's a bit higher due to the complexity of Jose vs a normal steering setup. This could very well impact areas from NC to NYC with either a direct landfall or close brush.

[hurricaneCW]

Pretty tight consensus now of where she is headed which by all accounts is up and eventually out to sea...With that said she made her mark and will require retirement.

That's a huge assumption given the building ridge and weakening Jose.

[gatorcane]

Recurve away from the US mainland looks likely but definitely not set in stone yet. The ECMWF has it passing just east of the outer banks well within the margin of error at 168-192 hours.

[tpinnola]

Some of the GEFS Ensemble members get uncomfortably close to NYC and New England. Something to watch for as the models continue to run.