ATL: MARIA - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Not much run to run difference from the 18z

[Aric Dunn]

Not much run to run difference from the 18z

yeah.. interesting.. still way too strong for jose.. just does not make sense..

[chaser1]

Not much run to run difference from the 18z

yeah.. interesting.. still way too strong for jose.. just does not make sense..

Aric, I'm beginning to wonder if Jose truly becomes blocked at that forecasted latitude, that it just barely remains south of the quickly falling isotherms??

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like slight shift east, need some good news

[chaser1]

Not much run to run difference from the 18z

Nope, none that I can see either

[MWatkins]

Only significant difference I see through 72 hours is the mid low to the east of Maria is weaker.

MW

[FlyMolo]

Only significant difference I see through 72 hours is the mid low to the east of Maria is weaker.

MW

Jose is further west.

[AtlanticWind]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

[FlyMolo]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.

[WeatherEmperor]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.

GFS even further East at 144hrs.




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[FlyMolo]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.

GFS even further East at 144hrs.




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I'm more interested in the overall trend than one GFS run.

[AtlanticWind]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.

It's possible , but have a better feeling as we go on that there is a good chance this will miss the US ,
Know it's not anyway a sure thing but crossing fingers and toes after Harvey and Irma.

[chaser1]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.

Agreed. I was noticing at 114 hr. how much weaker Jose was as compared to prior runs for the same time frame. In addition to that, the Great Lakes ridging appeared to be a bit stronger than prior runs for the same time frame also. Need to look out for any quicker weakening (or pulling out entirely) of Jose as potential harbinger of future westward track adjustments

[FlyMolo]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.

It's possible , but have a better feeling as we go on that there is a good chance this will miss the US ,
Know it's not anyway a sure thing but crossing fingers and toes after Harvey and Irma.

I'm with you 100%. Watching those images of Dominica earlier was enough for me. I want OTS as much as the next person. Fingers crossed!

[FlyMolo]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.

Agreed. I was noticing at 114 hr. how much weaker Jose was as compared to prior runs for the same time frame. In addition to that, the Great Lakes ridging appeared to be a bit stronger than prior runs for the same time frame also. Need to look out for any quicker weakening (or pulling out entirely) of Jose as potential harbinger of future westward track adjustments

I think we're on the same page! Looks like I'm staying up for the Euro again to check for agreement. I swear I never get any sleep come hurricane season.

[floridasun78]

look jose will keep maria between Bermuda and outterbank maybe bermuda could get windy day depend how east go ts wind i do not see them getting hurr gust their may need watch her on friday incase

[fci]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

Honestly, South Florida should have steadily felt better over the past several days as the models have consistently shown no danger for us.

[AtlanticWind]

Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida

Honestly, South Florida should have steadily felt better over the past several days as the models have consistently shown no danger for us.

I was just worried about how the models were possibly handling (or mishandling) jose

[AtlanticWind]

Last minute turn on gfs saves New England ,well not exactly last minute but too close for comfort