ATL: MARIA - Models

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1401 Postby storm4u » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:46 pm

916 mb at hr 60
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1402 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:47 pm

18z GFS so far

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1403 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:15 pm

So the sole difference between the models right now is definitely how fast Jose weakens and how quickly the trough can build back. Models are in agreement at hour 72 of the location of Maria, but GFS and EURO have Jose remnants as a weakness in the ridge while NAVGEM and CMC have Jose weakening rapidly and carrying Maria east as the ridge builds back.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1404 Postby shaneomac » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:15 pm

So looks out to sea wonder if this will be a trend ? every model against GGEM i know where my bets are for lol
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1405 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:35 pm

18Z GFS
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1406 Postby Hogweed » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:40 pm

shaneomac wrote:So looks out to sea wonder if this will be a trend ? every model against GGEM i know where my bets are for lol

gfs tends to trend away from US landfall at several days out unless in fantasy hours. I can't imagine that's actually a model parameter but sometimes it seems to be!

Probably I've just got confirmation bias though :D
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1407 Postby Voltron » Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:06 pm

CMC has been very good with Maria. It seems to have held up pretty good with less back and forth. Would be interested to hear from others when you plot against the track
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1408 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:13 pm

Voltron wrote:CMC has been very good with Maria. It seems to have held up pretty good with less back and forth. Would be interested to hear from others when you plot against the track


 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/910940650748735490


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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1409 Postby NJWxHurricane » Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:13 pm

Voltron wrote:CMC has been very good with Maria. It seems to have held up pretty good with less back and forth. Would be interested to hear from others when you plot against the track

that doesn't mean much imo. ukmet is a far more superior model and was very consistent with bringing jose into florida on a few runs
obviously, it was wrong.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1410 Postby artist » Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:19 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1411 Postby Voltron » Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:52 pm

Jose has accelerated quickly to the wnw which the models have not seem to take into account. For Ex; the GFS is too far east and far too strong compared to now. The highs seem to be closing more. This may conclude a more western shift than anticipated. This is supported by the ECWF as a cluster is more supportive of a left turn to coast
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1412 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:03 pm

Well it looks like the NHC is giving the conus a free pass hooray!
But then again it had Irene on the east coast of FL three days out.
And, of course we had a free pass from Matthew two days out.
Maybe I'll just wait a while before I breathe easy.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1413 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:55 pm

artist wrote:Model accuracy for Maria
http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... odel_error


I see something alarming about that. Check out the NAVGEM verification. Using the GFS tracker seems to horribly degrade the model for some reason. What is the GFS tracker actually tracking in this case?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1414 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:13 pm

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 69.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2017 0 20.8N 69.9W 947 87
1200UTC 22.09.2017 12 22.1N 70.7W 949 83
0000UTC 23.09.2017 24 23.7N 71.3W 946 78
1200UTC 23.09.2017 36 25.3N 72.1W 943 80
0000UTC 24.09.2017 48 27.0N 72.4W 935 85
1200UTC 24.09.2017 60 28.6N 72.7W 934 81
0000UTC 25.09.2017 72 30.0N 72.5W 939 76
1200UTC 25.09.2017 84 31.3N 72.4W 945 77
0000UTC 26.09.2017 96 32.3N 72.2W 946 77
1200UTC 26.09.2017 108 33.2N 72.0W 950 72
0000UTC 27.09.2017 120 34.2N 71.4W 955 66
1200UTC 27.09.2017 132 35.3N 70.7W 961 65
0000UTC 28.09.2017 144 36.4N 68.7W 959 71

maybe a slight west shift by the UK. It dissipate Jose faster than 12Z

I will say this much, I'd get nervous if this gets past 73.5W. east of that and it seems the weakness should keep it offshore. Close to a Joaquin hair trigger here
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1415 Postby sunnyday » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:21 pm

As unlikely as it may be, I hope Maria is the last of the hurricanes this season!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1416 Postby Hogweed » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:23 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Well it looks like the NHC is giving the conus a free pass hooray!
But then again it had Irene on the east coast of FL three days out.
And, of course we had a free pass from Matthew two days out.
Maybe I'll just wait a while before I breathe easy.

I did reply to this but it seems I was censored. Okay - understood.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1417 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:03 am

The CMC hits NC from the northeast before it recurves back out :double:

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1418 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:01 am

A majority of the Euro ensembles on last night's run have Maria tracking very close to the NC Outerbanks, a few actually making landfall.

Below is an image of the members that track it further west, 30+

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1419 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:03 am

Both the GFS and the UKMET have maria strengthening in 18 to 24 hours before weakening again. Hard to imagine those will be correct but maybe shear drops off temporarily?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

#1420 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:17 am

tolakram wrote:Both the GFS and the UKMET have maria strengthening in 18 to 24 hours before weakening again. Hard to imagine those will be correct but maybe shear drops off temporarily?


Yeah, maybe a slight drop in shear, forecasts the trough over the coast SE US to retrograde westward towards the central gulf coast/GOM over the next few days.
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