ATL: MARIA - Models

[Alyono]

Canadian shifted west because it killed off Jose very rapidly

[Hogweed]

Canadian shifted west because it killed off Jose very rapidly

[tolakram]

12Z GFS - stick to models in here, the silence is on purpose.

[txwatcher91]

Canadian shifted west because it killed off Jose very rapidly

Do you think this is a plausible scenario the CMC shows? I noticed when comparing it with the GFS, the CMC strings the vorticity of Jose out quicker and lifts it ENE allowing the ridge to build back in while the GFS seems to keep the vorticity stronger and traps it between the two ridges creating the OTS path.

[Hogweed]

West shift at hour 60 on NAVGEM

[tolakram]

12z Euro running here, so far no significant difference from the last 12z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017092112&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=200

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Wooops, had the wrong graph selected.

[tolakram]

72h trend

['CaneFreak]

Yeah that model ended up taking it well east of the US as well

West shift at hour 60 on NAVGEM

[tolakram]

72 and 96 hours.

['CaneFreak]

Not only that but it also initialized it several millibars too weak. 985 from recon this AM and this model is showing 993.

Canadian shifted west because it killed off Jose very rapidly

[txwatcher91]

Something I'm noticing on the Euro, the past few runs it has been dramatically slowing down Maria in the weak steering currents. Two days ago the 12z run had this off Rhode Island and moving NE. Now it has this sitting off the NC coast on today's run, from hours 120-168 it slowly drifts NNW to N just off the NC coast. GFS is similar but much further east while the CMC is the fastest with a NC landfall within 5 days. Pretty big timing differences and placement for around 5-6 days out.

The other significant difference I see is the CMC has Jose completely dissipated and strung out by hour 72 while the Euro has him lasting well into hour 120... The reason the CMC sends this into NC is due to the ridge building in the absence of Jose. Very complex setup with GFS the furthest east and CMC the most west and Euro splitting the difference.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[Otown_Wx]

Looking at the Euro does Maria leave a piece off herself and goes thru south Florida?

[Hogweed]

 https://twitter.com/patpend/status/910956709635661824




 https://twitter.com/patpend/status/910957980916600832

[wxman57]

West shift at hour 60 on NAVGEM

https://i.imgur.com/klb1haS.gif

Beware believing the NAVGEM/NOGAPS ever. Worst tropical model in the history of mankind. Take whatever direction it moves a storm and add 180 deg.

[Hogweed]

West shift at hour 60 on NAVGEM

https://i.imgur.com/klb1haS.gif

Beware believing the NAVGEM/NOGAPS ever. Worst tropical model in the history of mankind. Take whatever direction it moves a storm and add 180 deg.

Yes but as both it and the Canadian had been coming up with US landfalls recently I thought I'd watch it anyway. This run misses - next run will probably be back to landfall

[storm4u]

18z gfs brings maria down to 923mb at hr48

[tolakram]

18z gfs brings maria down to 923mb at hr48

In 6 hours it goes from 941 to 926. Hmmm