ATL: MARIA - Models

[invest man]

Both the GFS and the UKMET have maria strengthening in 18 to 24 hours before weakening again. Hard to imagine those will be correct but maybe shear drops off temporarily?

Yeah, maybe a slight drop in shear, forecasts the trough over the coast SE US to retrograde westward towards the central gulf coast/GOM over the next few days.

If that were to happen wouldn't that put eastern NC back in play? CMC looks to have a hp building in the area where Jose is now. Is this what Euro ensembles that show landfall sees?

[tolakram]

Both the GFS and the UKMET have maria strengthening in 18 to 24 hours before weakening again. Hard to imagine those will be correct but maybe shear drops off temporarily?

Yeah, maybe a slight drop in shear, forecasts the trough over the coast SE US to retrograde westward towards the central gulf coast/GOM over the next few days.

If that were to happen wouldn't that put eastern NC back in play? CMC looks to have a hp building in the area where Jose is now. Is this what Euro ensembles that show landfall sees?

Not in my opinion. The GFS and Euro both have this solution and both pause near NC before taking it out to sea. Certainly don't take your eye off it but so far so good. As we get closer and closer in time confidence in the track greatly increases. It was at 5 days out when the Sandy track started to bend left so you don't stop watching until safely past your area. I say this very carefully because this is not Sandy, it's not 2012, and so far the most accurate models have not started to show a marked west trend.

[tolakram]

Here's the Euro ensembles, almost all out to sea from the 0Z run.

[Steve H.]

I don't know, Maria looks pretty good right now IMO. Extremely cold cloud tops are wrapping in around the center again with whites showing over the reds on the east, north and west sides. I believe she is strengthening. She is moving slow and the synoptics can still change, especially if she slows to a crawl. I don't take my eye off her until she passes my latitude.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now that Maria has about a 99.9999% chance of missing the USA Mainland, hopefully we will get a nice break now

[Alyono]

Now that Maria has about a 99.9999% chance of missing the USA Mainland, hopefully we will get a nice break now

chances of direct impacts are a LOT higher than that. That statement has zero basis in reality.

Ensembles say there is a 35 percent chance of this passing within 125 miles of the outer Banks

[NDG]

Here's the Euro ensembles, almost all out to sea from the 0Z run.

Just have to watch 12z run if they continue shifting west.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now that Maria has about a 99.9999% chance of missing the USA Mainland, hopefully we will get a nice break now

chances of direct impacts are a LOT higher than that. That statement has zero basis in reality.

Ensembles say there is a 35 percent chance of this passing within 125 miles of the outer Banks

Then you better tell The Weather Channel that, Because they don't seem to think it's going to hit the East Coast

[txwatcher91]

Now that Maria has about a 99.9999% chance of missing the USA Mainland, hopefully we will get a nice break now

This is 5-6 days out from the Outer Banks of NC... and the EPS mean has this fairly close to the coast as does the OP Euro. The margin for error at this range certainly puts the OBX/NC at risk of a landfall or close miss if things adjust west some more. This has quite a large wind field and should grow as it moves north too, so even a miss would likely bring some effects to them depending on how close it passes. Way too early for statements like this. The 12z runs will show if there is continued adjustments west or not, it all really depends on how fast Jose weakens.

[BB79]

Now that Maria has about a 99.9999% chance of missing the USA Mainland, hopefully we will get a nice break now

This is 5-6 days out from the Outer Banks of NC... and the EPS mean has this fairly close to the coast as does the OP Euro. The margin for error at this range certainly puts the OBX/NC at risk of a landfall or close miss if things adjust west some more. This has quite a large wind field and should grow as it moves north too, so even a miss would likely bring some effects to them depending on how close it passes. Way too early for statements like this. The 12z runs will show if there is continued adjustments west or not, it all really depends on how fast Jose weakens.

Jose weakening and just how fast Maria makes her trek north. At this point it seems more of an issue of Maria's travel speed vs the trough arriving in time to keep her ots. The race is on!!

[Alyono]

big time 72 hour west shift on the GFS. Nearly full degrees at 72 hrs

[txwatcher91]

big time 72 hour west shift on the GFS. Nearly full degrees at 72 hrs

Yeah it's finally coming more inline with the Euro track. If other models shift west though that will be concerning for NC..

[Alyono]

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 70.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2017 0 21.9N 70.9W 958 74
0000UTC 23.09.2017 12 23.4N 71.7W 948 80
1200UTC 23.09.2017 24 25.0N 72.4W 946 77
0000UTC 24.09.2017 36 27.0N 72.7W 932 84
1200UTC 24.09.2017 48 28.9N 73.0W 932 83
0000UTC 25.09.2017 60 30.3N 72.9W 937 77
1200UTC 25.09.2017 72 31.3N 72.9W 949 78
0000UTC 26.09.2017 84 32.3N 72.9W 948 78
1200UTC 26.09.2017 96 33.9N 73.1W 953 74
0000UTC 27.09.2017 108 35.2N 72.9W 956 66
1200UTC 27.09.2017 120 36.5N 72.0W 956 65
0000UTC 28.09.2017 132 37.8N 69.4W 951 66
1200UTC 28.09.2017 144 39.4N 64.4W 950 74

starting to get Matthew vibes with these west shifts

[NDG]

big time 72 hour west shift on the GFS. Nearly full degrees at 72 hrs

Actually to be exact it shifts it west by 2.5 degrees in longitude when it is east of North Carolina.

[FlyMolo]

So much for that certainty by everyone that its OTS. That 99.999% chance sure is looking a little iffy. Never say never during hurricane season.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is there still a chance that this hits eastern NC? Are the models sure it will be pulled OTS before then? Just wondering what the METs on here think.

[Alyono]

Canadian west

[NDG]

12z GFS shows the same thing as what the Euro showed last night of stronger ridging in the NE US by Sunday night with Jose dying out quickly by then, the Bermuda ridge and the NE ridge bridge across the following days thus it cannot head NE out to sea between Sunday night and Wednesday night.

[txwatcher91]

Is there still a chance that this hits eastern NC? Are the models sure it will be pulled OTS before then? Just wondering what the METs on here think.

I’m not a met but you now have the CMC with OBX getting the West eyewall, GFS off the coast and a significant shift west, UK is West some and closer to the coast as well. With this 4-5 days out a landfall is within the realm of possibility and OTS is looking less likely for now.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS