ATL: MARIA - Models

[tolakram]

Moving north

[tolakram]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It'll be interesting to see how the impending death of Jose effects models runs for Maria moving forward. Several of the models have been overdoing the strength of Jose in their projections for days on end.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Most models take this out to sea.

They have EPS ensembles now on this image. Looks like a crime scene.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if this does Skirt the Coast, per the latest NHC advisory, this suppose to be 75 mph or less by 120 hours. So we will more than likely just be talking about a tropical storm by then

[aperson]

Even if this does Skirt the Coast, per the latest NHC advisory, this suppose to be 75 mph or less by 120 hours. So we will more than likely just be talking about a tropical storm by then

I can't say I'm a huge fan of tropical storms stalling on a coast line when steering collapses after the precedent set by Harvey this season.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if this does Skirt the Coast, per the latest NHC advisory, this suppose to be 75 mph or less by 120 hours. So we will more than likely just be talking about a tropical storm by then

I can't say I'm a huge fan of tropical storms stalling on a coast line when steering collapses after the precedent set by Harvey this season.

Usually worse case scenarios don't pan out. We've just been EXTREMELY unlucky this year

[AxaltaRacing24]

Even if this does Skirt the Coast, per the latest NHC advisory, this suppose to be 75 mph or less by 120 hours. So we will more than likely just be talking about a tropical storm by then

I can't say I'm a huge fan of tropical storms stalling on a coast line when steering collapses after the precedent set by Harvey this season.

Irma and Jose too. This is the season of steering collapses.

[Vdogg]

Even if this does Skirt the Coast, per the latest NHC advisory, this suppose to be 75 mph or less by 120 hours. So we will more than likely just be talking about a tropical storm by then

I can't say I'm a huge fan of tropical storms stalling on a coast line when steering collapses after the precedent set by Harvey this season.

NHC hasn't exactly nailed the intensity forecast for any of these storms lately. I wouldn't bet the farm on this assumption.

[wxmann_91]

Even if this does Skirt the Coast, per the latest NHC advisory, this suppose to be 75 mph or less by 120 hours. So we will more than likely just be talking about a tropical storm by then

I can't say I'm a huge fan of tropical storms stalling on a coast line when steering collapses after the precedent set by Harvey this season.

NHC hasn't exactly nailed the intensity forecast for any of these storms lately. I wouldn't bet the farm on this assumption.

The NHC has done an outstanding job with the intensity forecasts of these storms, especially considering how many of them have undergone RI.

Not only will Maria experience shear from the ULL to its west, it's going to cross over the cold wake left behind from Jose. I would be surprised if it was above moderate Cat 1 strength at the latitude of Hatteras.

[gtalum]

Even if this does Skirt the Coast, per the latest NHC advisory, this suppose to be 75 mph or less by 120 hours. So we will more than likely just be talking about a tropical storm by then

I can't say I'm a huge fan of tropical storms stalling on a coast line when steering collapses after the precedent set by Harvey this season.

NHC hasn't exactly nailed the intensity forecast for any of these storms lately. I wouldn't bet the farm on this assumption.

They will tell you themselves that their intensity forecasts are extremely uncertain.

[tolakram]

Don't guess how they've done, look at the verification. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al152017/

[Vdogg]

I can't say I'm a huge fan of tropical storms stalling on a coast line when steering collapses after the precedent set by Harvey this season.

NHC hasn't exactly nailed the intensity forecast for any of these storms lately. I wouldn't bet the farm on this assumption.

The NHC has done an outstanding job with the intensity forecasts of these storms, especially considering how many of them have undergone RI.

Not only will Maria experience shear from the ULL to its west, it's going to cross over the cold wake left behind from Jose. I would be surprised if it was above moderate Cat 1 strength at the latitude of Hatteras.

To be clear, this is not a knock against the NHC. They have said themselves that the intensity forecasts are less than accurate, and they have been.

[aperson]

I can't say I'm a huge fan of tropical storms stalling on a coast line when steering collapses after the precedent set by Harvey this season.

NHC hasn't exactly nailed the intensity forecast for any of these storms lately. I wouldn't bet the farm on this assumption.

The NHC has done an outstanding job with the intensity forecasts of these storms, especially considering how many of them have undergone RI.

Not only will Maria experience shear from the ULL to its west, it's going to cross over the cold wake left behind from Jose. I would be surprised if it was above moderate Cat 1 strength at the latitude of Hatteras.

I'm not sure how deep the 26C thermocline is around the region, but I don't see any evidence of a cold wake; waters are above 26C up to the point that GFS has Maria stalling out at

[stormreader]

Ok. All I'm gonna say is "this ain't good". Yeah, its the GFS, but that model usually tends to a right bias. Will watch for new Euro runs over the next 24 hours, but this ain't good. Heck, almost makes the CMC look intelligent. It had a run very similar about two days ago. Of course, need more model verification. But the collapse of steering currents, that lurch left near the Carolina coast. Will see, but "this ain't good".

[stormreader]

Ok. All I'm gonna say is "this ain't good". Yeah, its the GFS, but that model usually tends to a right bias. Will watch for new Euro runs over the next 24 hours, but this ain't good. Heck, almost makes the CMC look intelligent. It had a run very similar about two days ago. Of course, need more model verification. But the collapse of steering currents, that lurch left near the Carolina coast. Will see, but "this ain't good".

A stall over Eastern N Carolina (ala Harvey over Texas) is not out of the question. Might not be as prolonged, but a stop could occur there.

[aperson]

18z GEFS shows a pretty clear bifurcation in outcomes



This seems to occur pretty early due to one group tracking closer to a NW bearing than the other which tracks closer to due N.

[stormreader]

18z GEFS shows a pretty clear bifurcation in outcomes



This seems to occur pretty early due to one group tracking closer to a NW bearing than the other which tracks closer to due N.

I've been almost totally silent about this storm and possible US landfall, so far. Fl been in the clear for many days now. The path of following Jose seemed pretty clear-cut. But the relatively slow forward speed of Maria, and now the Jose weakening seems to be shutting off that clear and obvious "draft" or tug to the north forecast to occur north of 35N. Real possibility that at about 31-32N you could get this NNW or NW move into the Carolina coast. Some filling in of pressures north of the storm, not like a strong blocking ridge, but just enough to allow Maria to glide with a west component into the Carolina coast. Slow but persistent move there. The weakness (or draft) in Jose's wake can't last forever. Could be problems for Carolina or even Virginia coast.

[tpinnola]

The race is on with that trough in the Midwest!

[Vdogg]

Don't guess how they've done, look at the verification. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al152017/

Are my eyes playing tricks on me? I didn't realize the Euro had such a huge intensity bias. That's actually shocking to me.