ATL: MARIA - Models

[tolakram]

Don't guess how they've done, look at the verification. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al152017/

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/prcgKcp.png[/img]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me? I didn't realize the Euro had such a huge intensity bias. That's actually shocking to me.

Euro is not good with intensity and apparently it doesn't matter one bit.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM gets uncomfortably close:

[Michele B]

Uh, oh!

With Jose out of the picture, now even TWC is hinting at a westward shift.

I always suspected it could happen.

[stormreader]

Uh, oh!

With Jose out of the picture, now even TWC is hinting at a westward shift.

I always suspected it could happen.

At best, there is a strong likelihood that Maria will make a very close pass to the N Carolina-Virginia coast. That, I think, is a best case scenario. Let's hope for that. But if I were a coastal Carolina resident, I think I would be making preps right now.

[MrJames]

Here are the last two UKMet ensembles.

9/22 00z


9/22 12z

[sky1989]

I'm no expert at reading these models at all, but since the Euro bar is negative, wouldn't that mean that it under predicts the intensity?

Don't guess how they've done, look at the verification. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al152017/

Are my eyes playing tricks on me? I didn't realize the Euro had such a huge intensity bias. That's actually shocking to me.

[stormreader]

Here are the last two UKMet ensembles.

9/22 00z


9/22 12z

Thank you, for that. See the obvious greater spread and less certainty with bottom image. Also directed more west in general. This ensemble look taken together with that pretty close call on the last GFS is not a good sign, I think. Not a huge GFS fan, but in this case, with a weakened and dying Jose, a S-N weakness which looks to be gradually filling in some, a NW approach toward E Carolina seems reasonable. Have to think its gonna be very close, if not actually on the N Carolina coast.

[OuterBanker]

I'm going to bed now. I know that by the time I get up it will shift back east again.

[stormreader]

I'm going to bed now. I know that by the time I get up it will shift back east again.

Love your optimism, but don't think back and forth is too viable any more. The really long lasting S-N weakness off the East Coast will be filling in some. There is no turning back now to a stronger than expected weakness. So Maria is set to make an uncomfortably close approach to the Carolina coast. Perhaps the next oncoming trough will catch it in the nick of time. But no matter what, it looks to be really close, if not actually on the N Carolina coast, I think.

[CrazyC83]

The worst case would be for it to hit near Cape Hatteras and stall out in northeastern North Carolina, constantly pushing water into Hampton Roads.

[weathaguyry]

Good thing is IF it impacts the East Coast at all, it should just be a close call for NC and then make a hard right, as opposed to moving farther north and impacting other areas.

[stormreader]

Good thing is IF it impacts the East Coast at all, it should just be a close call for NC and then make a hard right, as opposed to moving farther north and impacting other areas.

See above post (Crazy). The forward motion is forecast to seriously slow somewhere very near, if not on, the N Carolina coast.

[invest man]

Good thing is IF it impacts the East Coast at all, it should just be a close call for NC and then make a hard right, as opposed to moving farther north and impacting other areas.

See above post (Crazy). The forward motion is forecast to seriously slow somewhere very near, if not on, the N Carolina coast.

NHC seem confident that it will not get that close. I guess their hugging the Euro or some idea of it. I wonder if next Euro goes west they will move left or will they become the east outlier?

[Alyono]

0Z GFS brings near hurricane force winds to the Outer Banks

[aperson]

Looks like the lows squeezing the ridge from both sides are setting up for a sit n spin scenario as well

[Alyono]

slight west shift and maria is sitting over eastern NC and southern VA

One thing I am seeing is the shear may remain relatively low. This could be the storm that Joaquin was forecast to be 2 years ago. That is now the worst case scenario

[Alyono]

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 71.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2017 0 23.5N 71.9W 940 85
1200UTC 23.09.2017 12 25.0N 72.5W 934 81
0000UTC 24.09.2017 24 26.7N 72.9W 926 88
1200UTC 24.09.2017 36 28.6N 73.4W 921 86
0000UTC 25.09.2017 48 30.0N 73.8W 931 79
1200UTC 25.09.2017 60 31.1N 74.3W 936 86
0000UTC 26.09.2017 72 32.2N 74.8W 932 84
1200UTC 26.09.2017 84 33.7N 75.2W 941 76
0000UTC 27.09.2017 96 34.9N 75.5W 946 75
1200UTC 27.09.2017 108 35.8N 75.0W 955 66
0000UTC 28.09.2017 120 36.1N 73.1W 967 66
1200UTC 28.09.2017 132 36.7N 69.7W 980 57
0000UTC 29.09.2017 144 40.3N 63.3W 982 56

UKMET has near landfall

[aperson]

capture at tau=126 on 00z gfs. If this tracks further westward I assume it will start weakening to the point where it doesn't get captured and just stalls out for possibly a very long time. I see nothing closer to the surface or at the 200mb wind level to pull it out.

[hurricaneCW]

Cutting it very close as Jose becomes less and less of a factor while ridging is only getting stronger.

Timing of the trough is key but I wouldn't be surprised if Maria makes it inland however I don't know how strong she'll be. Water temps won't be the issue but continental dry air and shear probably will be.

If she makes landfall I don't think it'll be more than a minimal Cat 2 and more likely a 90-95 mph Cat 1.

[TheStormExpert]

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 71.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2017 0 23.5N 71.9W 940 85
1200UTC 23.09.2017 12 25.0N 72.5W 934 81
0000UTC 24.09.2017 24 26.7N 72.9W 926 88
1200UTC 24.09.2017 36 28.6N 73.4W 921 86
0000UTC 25.09.2017 48 30.0N 73.8W 931 79
1200UTC 25.09.2017 60 31.1N 74.3W 936 86
0000UTC 26.09.2017 72 32.2N 74.8W 932 84
1200UTC 26.09.2017 84 33.7N 75.2W 941 76
0000UTC 27.09.2017 96 34.9N 75.5W 946 75
1200UTC 27.09.2017 108 35.8N 75.0W 955 66
0000UTC 28.09.2017 120 36.1N 73.1W 967 66
1200UTC 28.09.2017 132 36.7N 69.7W 980 57
0000UTC 29.09.2017 144 40.3N 63.3W 982 56

UKMET has near landfall