ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

I recall 2001 having a high number of regenerated systems (mostly depressions that returned as named storms later) and it happened to a few storms back in 2011 but yeah, discontinuous path storms are really interesting.

[galaxy401]

The beloved 2013 season had a lot of zombie storms as well. At least three or four from what I recall.

[CrazyC83]

This was being tracked as "remnants of Lee" all along so it makes sense.

I agree, Michael 2012 might be an analog - same position too. It's too small though to change the flow of Maria?

[supercane4867]

Quite surprised that Lee has came back from the dead. It looks like she's gonna be around for a long time now.

[Michele B]

Look at the projected track!

What is with all these "dancing" storms this year? They are all doing the "Loopty-loops!"

[EquusStorm]

Given what seems to be a pretty good environment for a few days, and its incredibly small size, I really think this has a very good shot of being a hurricane. I remember storms in this area surprising forecasters before, such as in 2012. If so, that will mean that every storm from Franklin to Maria will have been a hurricane, which is absolutely wild.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that eye feature, I would issue a Special Advisory with a 50 kt intensity.

[RL3AO]

If Ivan kept its name, then Lee can too..

[CrazyC83]

Given what seems to be a pretty good environment for a few days, and its incredibly small size, I really think this has a very good shot of being a hurricane. I remember storms in this area surprising forecasters before, such as in 2012. If so, that will mean that every storm from Franklin to Maria will have been a hurricane, which is absolutely wild.

Could this be the 5th major of the season after being seen as the pathetic little one?

[WeatherGuesser]

If it manages to stay together and circle south, then back west .... who knows what might happen?

[EquusStorm]

Given what seems to be a pretty good environment for a few days, and its incredibly small size, I really think this has a very good shot of being a hurricane. I remember storms in this area surprising forecasters before, such as in 2012. If so, that will mean that every storm from Franklin to Maria will have been a hurricane, which is absolutely wild.

Could this be the 5th major of the season after being seen as the pathetic little one?

Hey I wouldn't be surprised, those tiny ones are the ones that give intensity forecasts nightmares Now if only Katia had been just a little stronger, that'd mean six straight majors. THAT would be an interesting statistic for the year

[1900hurricane]

00Z best track is back to a tropical storm.

AL, 14, 2017092300, , BEST, 0, 312N, 490W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1016, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,

[1900hurricane]

Season of the Zombies. How many have done this?

OK, back to this question. I know Harvey did, but wasn't there another?

Aside from Harvey and Lee, no others have done so this year in the NAtl. However, both Franklin's and Katia's remnants crossed over into the EPac, where they redeveloped as Jova and Otis, respectively.

[1900hurricane]

Given what seems to be a pretty good environment for a few days, and its incredibly small size, I really think this has a very good shot of being a hurricane. I remember storms in this area surprising forecasters before, such as in 2012. If so, that will mean that every storm from Franklin to Maria will have been a hurricane, which is absolutely wild.

Could this be the 5th major of the season after being seen as the pathetic little one?

Hey I wouldn't be surprised, those tiny ones are the ones that give intensity forecasts nightmares Now if only Katia had been just a little stronger, that'd mean six straight majors. THAT would be an interesting statistic for the year

Well, Katia technically did become a major hurricane when it redeveloped in the EPac as Otis.

[CrazyC83]

Could this be the 5th major of the season after being seen as the pathetic little one?

Hey I wouldn't be surprised, those tiny ones are the ones that give intensity forecasts nightmares Now if only Katia had been just a little stronger, that'd mean six straight majors. THAT would be an interesting statistic for the year

Well, Katia technically did become a major hurricane when it redeveloped in the EPac as Otis.

It makes me wish they would change the crossover rule so that it keeps its name if the remnants develop in the other basin...

[Hammy]

Season of the Zombies. How many have done this?

OK, back to this question. I know Harvey did, but wasn't there another?

Aside from Harvey and Lee, no others have done so this year in the NAtl. However, both Franklin's and Katia's remnants crossed over into the EPac, where they redeveloped as Jova and Otis, respectively.

We can throw in Gert given how long it lasted as an invest before developing.

[HurricaneBelle]

Quite surprised that Lee has came back from the dead. It looks like she's gonna be around for a long time now.

Lee is a he not a she, previous storm was Katia and he was followed by Maria.

[Kazmit]

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

Several microwave overpasses between 2100 and 2200 UTC indicated
that Lee was becoming better organized, at least at the mid-levels.
In particular, a WindSat overpass near 21Z indicated that a
mid-level eye was already forming. Since that time, however, cloud
tops have warmed, the CDO has shrunk, and a GPM overpass around 0100
UTC showed that most of the convection is currently confined to the
southeast semicircle of the tropical storm. The UW-CIMSS ADT
supports an intensity of 35 kt, and the TAFB Dvorak analyst
indicated that the subjective classification would have been higher,
if the technique wasn't constrained by the fact that classifications
on Lee only recently restarted. Based on these data, the initial
intensity has been increased to 35 kt.

The intensity forecast for Lee is highly uncertain. The tropical
storm is very small, and small cyclones often quickly strengthen or
weaken. Furthermore, Lee is small enough that some of our models
(and many of our observing platforms) may have trouble resolving the
inner core of the storm. Given the current convective state of Lee,
significant strengthening in the short term seems unlikely.
However, the cyclone is expected to be in a fairly unstable, low
shear environment for at least the next 3 days, so it is possible
that rapid intensification could occur at some time during that
period. On the other hand, I can't rule out that the cyclone could
dissipate entirely, as depicted by the GFS, within a couple days.
For now, my forecast is closest to the HWRF for the first 72 h,
since that model tends to do well in low-shear environments and
should have sufficient resolution to model Lee's core. After that
time, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models.

Lee has continued to move north around 6 kt. Little change has been
made to the track forecast, and Lee is still forecast to move around
a subtropical ridge for the next 72 h. At days 4 and 5, a ridge
building between Lee and Maria to the west should cause a turn more
toward the south, as long as Lee is sufficiently deep to be steered
by that feature. The forecast continues to be close to the ECMWF,
since it is still the global model with the strongest representation
of Lee, in line with the NHC forecast.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[EquusStorm]

Official calls for 75kts now. Consecutive hurricane streak is retroactively continued if it survives, it seems.

[abajan]

If it manages to stay together and circle south, then back west .... who knows what might happen?

Let's not go there. Okay?