ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4639
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2641 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:03 am

1 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15080
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Chicago.... definately need to be back in the action..
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2642 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:13 am

Look nonname system is bringing up the rear... lol
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/mflash-rgb.html
5 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1594
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2643 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:16 am

Family property is good... sounds like surge/tide was about 8 to 8.5feet, out east of pascagoula in a swampy bayou near the state line. Water was under the house but less than foot and power out but all good, about 10 ft lower than 18 ft Katrina surge, and 4 ft lower than our Georges surge of around 12, Camille also was about 11-12 out there. This sounds pretty similar but bit lower than the surge that would have occurred out there in the 47 storm, which was 9-10ft . Just goes to show high autumn tide plus even a weak storm coming from the right approach can move a lot of water!
1 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3233
Age: 33
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2644 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:13 pm

This was certainly not the most well-formed storm to ever hit the US, especially in this region. It struggled as it approached and clearly weakened as it made landfall. I am interested to see what the re-analysis says for sure here.

However, I would still guess this will count as a hurricane hit, at least for Louisiana and probably for Mississippi too. It also wouldn't be the first hit as a hurricane where maybe the hurricane force winds didn't make it onshore, but it still counted, if that happens. I think Cindy in 2005 and Earl in 1998 also qualified in that regard.

-Andrew92
3 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26742
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2645 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:20 pm

Andrew92 wrote:This was certainly not the most well-formed storm to ever hit the US, especially in this region. It struggled as it approached and clearly weakened as it made landfall. I am interested to see what the re-analysis says for sure here.

However, I would still guess this will count as a hurricane hit, at least for Louisiana and probably for Mississippi too. It also wouldn't be the first hit as a hurricane where maybe the hurricane force winds didn't make it onshore, but it still counted, if that happens. I think Cindy in 2005 and Earl in 1998 also qualified in that regard.

-Andrew92


Agreed, it will probably count as a category 1 hit for both Louisiana and Mississippi, even though in LA any hurricane conditions were only over marshland.
2 likes   

PandaCitrus
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2646 Postby PandaCitrus » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:46 pm

Any reports of significant surge damage? Sounds like a non event for most people as far as winds but 6 to 9 feet of storm surge should have caused some serious flooding unless everything was built elevated after Katrina?
0 likes   

runnergal70
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 3
Age: 47
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:04 am
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2647 Postby runnergal70 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:03 pm

Fairhope survived. The piers along the Bay as well as the Big Pier was damaged but that is to be expected. Actually the area did well. Didn't even lose power at my house. We were lucky!
2 likes   

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1594
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2648 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:13 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:Any reports of significant surge damage? Sounds like a non event for most people as far as winds but 6 to 9 feet of storm surge should have caused some serious flooding unless everything was built elevated after Katrina?



You hit the nail right the head. The vast majority of areas that received 8 feet (Jackson county) received 18-20 ft in Katrina. The houses that were on the ground in surge areas at that time were destroyed. Many were never rebuilt but those that were were elevated. In pascagoula and the area I grew up lots of places had water under the newer now raised homes. Our old family home which was destroyed in Katrina likely would have had about 6 inches of water in this. So by the pre Katrina standards this would have been more of an annoyance surge that mainly flooded low lying homes. It would have taken closer to 12 ft or so to start threatening areas of pascagoula that flooded in Katrina but not bad enough to have had the homes rebuilt raised(i.e. Neighborhoods where homes still exist on the ground)

If you want surge pictures the casinos took it particularly hard on the ground floors in Biloxi this time around. But those ground floors are at the beach basically and many are parking areas. Hard rock and a Golden nugget had some in the "finished " areas though.
1 likes   

bghowie
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:37 pm

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2649 Postby bghowie » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:22 pm

Tornado warning Newberry in the Midlands of SC. looks like some heavy bands about to come through the midlands.
1 likes   

bghowie
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 8:37 pm

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2650 Postby bghowie » Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:10 pm

Tornadoes popping up more frequently in SC. Possible debris reaching heights of 17k feet in one storm.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5595
Age: 37
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2651 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:40 pm

This could get retired possibly on the tornadoes alone as some of those are upper end it looks like
1 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1854
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2652 Postby Frank P » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:36 pm

The sea wall in front of my house is 10 feet above sea level.. the surge was completely covering the east bound lane of HWY 90. That was the 4th highest surge at the house I am living in on the beach.. 1. Katrina was 23-24 feet, 2. Camille was 19-20 feet, 3. Gustav was 11-12 feet and 4. Nate 9-10 feet, 5. Eleana was 8 feet and barely made it to the base of the sea wall... didn’t even cover up a single step... additionally Nate’s waves were the largest generated by a surge I have ever witnesses since living in the beach. (But I was not there for Katrina or Camille) I sat on my porch throughout entire storm just amazed at the surge and powerful waves, we don’t see that very often in Biloxi. Never got any south wind, mostly out to the NE and ESE to E... best guess was a few gusts in the upper 60s, and some sustained winds at most in the mid 50s. It was a great little storm to chase right off my front porch... the east bound lane of HWY 90 was closed till about 2 pm today cleaning up all the sand deposited by the surge.
Last edited by Frank P on Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 714
Age: 16
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2653 Postby Kazmit » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:38 pm

I just thought about the unusual spring tide that occurred yesterday. Did it have an effect on the storm surge height?
1 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26742
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2654 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:24 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

This is NOT an official BT, but here is what I would have for Nate, like I have done for other storms. This will likely be revised if new data comes in, but is based on available data.

AL162017, NATE, 22,
20171004, 1200, , TD, 12.0N, 81.8W, 30, 1005,
20171004, 1800, , TD, 12.3N, 82.3W, 30, 1005,
20171005, 0000, , TS, 12.6N, 82.7W, 35, 1003,
20171005, 0600, , TS, 13.0N, 83.1W, 40, 1001,
20171005, 1200, , TS, 13.7N, 83.4W, 45, 998,
20171005, 1230, L, TS, 13.8N, 83.5W, 45, 997, Landfall - S of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
20171005, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 84.1W, 40, 999,
20171006, 0000, , TS, 15.3N, 84.3W, 35, 999,
20171006, 0600, , TS, 16.2N, 84.7W, 40, 998,
20171006, 1200, , TS, 17.8N, 84.7W, 45, 996,
20171006, 1800, , TS, 19.4N, 85.1W, 50, 995,
20171007, 0000, , TS, 21.3N, 85.7W, 60, 990,
20171007, 0600, , HU, 23.6N, 86.6W, 75, 986,
20171007, 1200, , HU, 25.7N, 87.9W, 85, 984, Maximum wind
20171007, 1800, , HU, 27.6N, 88.9W, 80, 982,
20171007, 2100, T, HU, 28.5N, 89.2W, 75, 981, Minimum pressure
20171008, 0000, L, HU, 29.1N, 89.0W, 70, 982, Landfall - Southwest Pass, LA
20171008, 0500, L, HU, 30.4N, 88.9W, 65, 983, Landfall - West end of Biloxi, MS (near Kessler AFB)
20171008, 0600, , TS, 30.6N, 88.8W, 55, 984,
20171008, 1200, , TS, 32.2N, 88.0W, 35, 993,
20171008, 1800, , TD, 33.9N, 86.9W, 30, 996,
20171009, 0000, , TD, 35.6N, 85.3W, 30, 1000,

A few notes:

* The intensities before the Nicaraguan landfall are increased, with landfall set at 45 kt. That is based on the eye-like structure on radar and the fact it clearly maintained TS status across land. I considered 50 kt but felt any farther increase would be too uncertain.
* The peak intensity is set at 85 kt, based on Recon data on Saturday morning (October 7) measuring 90 kt in a dropsonde (maybe a bit high) and an SFMR reading of 82 kt. It did not coincide with minimum pressure.
* The highest SFMR values near landfall were 71 kt at 0100Z and 65 kt at 0330Z. Although they would on paper support a bit higher, landfall intensities are set at 70 kt and 65 kt, respectively, as shoaling may have enhanced those values and radar velocities did not support more than 65 kt near final landfall.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

Dean_175
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:34 pm

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#2655 Postby Dean_175 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:20 pm

Not really looking good on satellite now- but that's pretty obvious. Has a bit of convection dying off near the center and the rest is a sheared mess as it is merging with a frontal system. The surface wind pattern and isobars still show it to be distinct from the frontal boundary- but this will almost certainly be declared post-tropical within 12-18 hours.
0 likes   
All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest