ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8773
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1601 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:32 pm

Where the AF recon found the lowest pressure.

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26740
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1602 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:33 pm

URNT15 KNHC 070332
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 44 20171007
032230 2211N 08619W 8423 01466 //// +167 //// 270025 026 022 004 01
032300 2209N 08619W 8430 01463 //// +175 //// 259026 027 027 003 05
032330 2208N 08619W 8428 01470 //// +178 //// 254027 027 028 001 01
032400 2206N 08619W 8435 01464 //// +169 //// 255024 027 031 001 01
032430 2205N 08620W 8429 01471 //// +170 //// 254026 026 034 003 01
032500 2203N 08620W 8430 01473 9993 +180 //// 257025 026 035 009 01
032530 2202N 08620W 8435 01470 0000 +182 //// 253034 038 038 008 01
032600 2200N 08620W 8426 01483 0001 +173 //// 253040 041 041 002 01
032630 2159N 08620W 8431 01480 0004 +173 +173 256046 050 039 013 00
032700 2157N 08621W 8433 01480 0013 +170 +170 258045 049 041 016 00
032730 2156N 08621W 8432 01487 0014 +177 +177 263043 045 037 010 00
032800 2154N 08621W 8429 01491 0014 +178 +178 260041 042 035 008 00
032830 2153N 08621W 8428 01495 0019 +175 +175 256038 039 036 012 00
032900 2151N 08621W 8428 01498 0023 +174 //// 258039 041 037 008 01
032930 2150N 08621W 8426 01502 0025 +172 //// 258041 041 035 007 01
033000 2148N 08622W 8432 01502 0015 +176 //// 252042 043 034 005 01
033030 2147N 08622W 8429 01506 0013 +179 +174 249041 042 036 002 00
033100 2145N 08622W 8429 01505 0014 +179 +172 245041 041 035 004 00
033130 2144N 08622W 8430 01507 0016 +181 +166 245040 041 037 003 00
033200 2142N 08622W 8428 01510 0017 +184 +161 244039 040 033 002 00
$$
;
0 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2532
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1603 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:35 pm

With only 24 hours away from landfall. there won't be much time to prepare for a much stronger storm. The east shift in track will also make Nate ride the loop current all the way up to landfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8773
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1604 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:38 pm

I am giving it 100% chance of Nate now becoming a Cat 2 before landfall and at least 50/50 of Cat 3.
IMO!
3 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 947
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1605 Postby Blinhart » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:39 pm

Now this is becoming a very serious situation. I just hope he doesn't slow down any, rather have a storm come in with 140 mph winds moving at 30 MPH, then a storm with a 115 MPH winds moving at 10 MPH.

MY question is what would happen if for some reason with this possibly going through RI right now, could he slow down his forward speed and possibly move a little more to the West?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 947
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1606 Postby Blinhart » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:40 pm

NDG wrote:I am giving it 100% chance of Nate now becoming a Cat 2 before landfall and at least 50/50 of Cat 3.
IMO!


I would even up they chance of Cat 3 to say 80%, and a Cat 4 to 50%, Cat 5 to 15%
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2533
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1607 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:40 pm

Will it never end? :eek:

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone on the Northern Gulf Coast this evening.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 511
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1608 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:42 pm

General feel from the Gulf coast was that it's "Just a TS" and maybe a weak cat 1. (well earlier today it was). Tomorrow is going to be insane since there is only maybe 2/3 of the day to do anything.
0 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4404
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1609 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:43 pm

Through 11:32pm EDT:

Image

Image
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1361
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1610 Postby otowntiger » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:43 pm

Blinhart wrote:Now this is becoming a very serious situation. I just hope he doesn't slow down any, rather have a storm come in with 140 mph winds moving at 30 MPH, then a storm with a 115 MPH winds moving at 10 MPH.

MY question is what would happen if for some reason with this possibly going through RI right now, could he slow down his forward speed and possibly move a little more to the West?
. Uhhh.... no, definitely not!! 140 mph is many times more destructive than 115- it's an exponential increase. Also the faster it moves the further inland damaging winds are spread.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26740
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#1611 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:44 pm

URNT15 KNHC 070342
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 45 20171007
033230 2141N 08623W 8433 01507 0017 +186 +161 245038 039 035 000 03
033300 2139N 08623W 8426 01514 0019 +185 +160 245037 038 035 001 00
033330 2138N 08623W 8428 01514 0022 +186 +165 244036 037 035 001 00
033400 2136N 08623W 8433 01511 0023 +185 +165 244036 037 035 001 00
033430 2135N 08623W 8429 01514 0025 +185 +163 243036 037 035 001 03
033500 2134N 08623W 8430 01515 0027 +185 +162 243036 036 033 002 03
033530 2132N 08624W 8429 01519 0031 +180 +164 244036 036 032 002 03
033600 2131N 08624W 8429 01523 0035 +175 +165 243036 036 030 000 00
033630 2129N 08624W 8432 01520 0037 +172 +167 244035 035 030 000 00
033700 2128N 08624W 8430 01522 0040 +171 +167 245034 035 027 001 00
033730 2126N 08624W 8426 01527 0041 +171 +169 248033 034 026 001 01
033800 2125N 08624W 8432 01522 0041 +170 +169 252033 033 028 002 00
033830 2123N 08625W 8429 01526 0045 +170 +165 250032 033 029 001 00
033900 2122N 08625W 8427 01529 0047 +170 +164 247031 032 027 002 03
033930 2120N 08625W 8430 01528 0046 +171 +161 249031 032 028 000 00
034000 2119N 08625W 8428 01530 0047 +170 +162 249031 031 028 000 00
034030 2117N 08625W 8433 01526 0050 +170 +163 249031 032 026 001 00
034100 2116N 08626W 8426 01532 0051 +170 +161 250031 031 025 001 00
034130 2114N 08626W 8428 01531 0051 +169 +161 249030 031 028 000 03
034200 2113N 08626W 8430 01529 0052 +170 +160 248029 029 028 001 00
$$
;
0 likes   

kn4ds
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:20 pm

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1612 Postby kn4ds » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:44 pm

Hey, gang, new here... but longtime follower...

Hurricane #Nate Update: Air Force Hurricane Hunter finds that Nate has become a hurricane:


Hurricane Nate Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1030 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE...

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just penetrated the
center of Nate and reported hurricane-force winds. The maximum
winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 86.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Last edited by kn4ds on Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1814
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1613 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:45 pm

BobHarlem wrote:General feel from the Gulf coast was that it's "Just a TS" and maybe a weak cat 1. (well earlier today it was). Tomorrow is going to be insane since there is only maybe 2/3 of the day to do anything.


Exactly right. People are thinking 30 or 40 mph winds. I'm a little east in Pensacola, but I gotta say, I'm a little nervous, such a big blow up on the east side,
2 likes   

bella_may
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 492
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#1614 Postby bella_may » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:45 pm

00z gfs shifted west just a hair. Not even gonna talk about their intesity track because it's irrelevant
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3157
Age: 16
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1615 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:45 pm

Terrifying for my family (and everyone else) in the NOLA metro area, eastern LA and the eastern Gulf Coast. There's insufficient time for preparation for a major. I wouldn't be surprised, but hopefully not, this would end up a cat 3 landfall.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecast may lead to false alarm, danger and risk. This has occurred several times now.

My FB page: https://www.facebook.com/typhoon.watchers

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1283
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1616 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:45 pm

BobHarlem wrote:General feel from the Gulf coast was that it's "Just a TS" and maybe a weak cat 1. (well earlier today it was). Tomorrow is going to be insane since there is only maybe 2/3 of the day to do anything.


Whenever the NHC is so bullish on RI chances and going on the high end of intensity guidance it’s a big warning sign. They’ve learned a lot over the years from the RI storms, especially the ones we’ve seen this year.
1 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15080
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Chicago.... definately need to be back in the action..
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1617 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:46 pm

75 mph is a little conservative...
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2532
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1618 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:46 pm

Dropsonde in N eyewall has 66kt surface wind and 95kt just above surface. Those stronger winds will likely be mixed down in the next few hours.
0 likes   

Coaster
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:07 pm
Location: Downtown Semmes Alabama

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1619 Postby Coaster » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:47 pm

Exactly where is the Loop Current located at? How long does Nate need to stay in the Loop Current for significant intensification to occur?
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1147
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Des Plaines, IL

Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1620 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:47 pm

Wow what an impressive burst of convection Nate is having in the last couple hours. Really different compared to this morning. :eek:
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests